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May 20-21 Severe Threat


IWXwx

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Insane crack of thunder just happened. Sounded like something exploded.

 

One of the loudest cracks of thunder I've ever heard (from a single cell t'storm no less). 

My sister in-law texted me a bit ago asking what was up with the insane lightning as well. I guess I am missing out on a good show at home :(

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00z NAM and RAP actually look somewhat encouraging for tomorrow, even if we miss out on tonight's activity.
 

It tracks the MCS tonight far enough south to allow for some clearing in its wake by sunrise and the air to rapidly destabilize (2000-3000 J/KG) before the cold front passage. 

 

That instability holds right through 21z - 00z too...

 

 

Problem with the NAM both 12km and 4km aren't handling the current convection correctly and neither form anything tomorrow even with ample instability.

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Problem with the NAM both 12km and 4km aren't handling the current convection correctly and neither form anything tomorrow even with ample instability.

 

Between mid-level drying and the lack of forcing, any potential tomorrow is far from a slam dunk.

 

That said, if we do get ample sunshine and that amount of instability is able to develop (depending on tonight's convection of course), I would be surprised if absolutely nothing happens around the area, especially here on the east side and down to the Ohio Border.

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That south suburban Chicago cell is making me very nervous.  Hook taking shape, rotation increasing, and turning right.

 

 

My mom let me know they had at least golfball size hail from that and it was hailing at various sizes for 15 minutes.  I believe it as it looks like the max reflectivity passed right over.

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My sister in-law texted me a bit ago asking what was up with the insane lightning as well. I guess I am missing out on a good show at home :(

 

I didn't see a whole lot of lightning (most of it was cloud-to-cloud). Aside from maybe a bit of pea sized hail at best mixed in, the thunder mentioned earlier was the highlight of the storm. It was a old-fashion garden variety storm here.

 

Had a very nice shelf cloud before sunset though. 

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Hoping those I-94 riders will make their way over here without losing too much umph. Always down for some sleep storms

Same here. The stuff in central IN right now seems to be holding on for now, even got some secondary cells forming way out ahead of the main cluster.

EDIT: nice thunder here now from a small storm to my south

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Any thoughts on if the new day 1 changes much from what day 2 showed?

 

 

I'm kinda optimistic and could envision a higher end slight, if not on the imminent update then at some point later in the day.  Main threats should be hail/wind, though a small tornado threat as well.  Surface winds are horribly veered but there's still decent turning in the low levels with W/WNW flow aloft. 

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..MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY  

 

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID-MS  

VALLEY TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES  

REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER  

MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF  

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  

LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE  

AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE  

ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  

 

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR INDIANAPOLIS  

INDIANA AND CINCINNATI OH SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH MLCAPE  

IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS  

ALONG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR  

SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE  

POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGER  

INSTABILITY. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY  

OCCUR FROM SCNTRL IL EWD ACROSS SCNTRL INDIANA WHERE THE COMBINATION  

OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. LOW-LEVEL  

LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED  

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CELL MERGERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.  

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New watch at any time.

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...MUCH OF INDIANA...MUCH OH...NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211654Z - 211930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION FROM NRN IND INTO OH. A CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND
FROM ERN IL INTO OH DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F.

CONFLUENT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE A NW-SE
ORIENTED ZONE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS AS FAR W AS ERN IL BUT
CENTERED OVER INDIANA INTO SWRN OH. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY
THEN POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE CONTAINING
BOTH HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
STRONGEST AND MOST SLY-MOVING OF THE SUPERCELLS.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/21/2014

 

post-4544-0-29072200-1400693289_thumb.gi

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  

132 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  

EAST CENTRAL TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  

 

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT  

 

* AT 131 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAFAYETTE...  

AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  

 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

FRANKFORT...DAYTON...MULBERRY AND ROSSVILLE.  

 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 176.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
205 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 202 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
FRANKFORT AROUND 210 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 157.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

205 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 202 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

FRANKFORT AROUND 210 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 157.

 

 

The couplet is very very close to I-65.

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