IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I thought it would be fun to have our own Tropical Forecast contest with just the people from our sub-forum and Philly if they so choose. The rules will be as followed... The contest will begin June 1, 2014 and end November 30, 2014 to coincide with the official Atlantic Hurricane season as determined by the NHC. Each member will submit the following before the start of the contest, entries must be made by 12:00 Noon on Sunday June 1, 2014 in order to count. Number of named storms: Number of tropical storms: Number of hurricanes: Number of major hurricanes: Number of US Landfalls: Each member will receive 5 points for guessing the exact number in each category, 3 points for being off by one number in either direction and 1 point for guessing within 2 in either direction. So if you were to guess 10 named storms and 10 occurred, you would receive 5 points or if you guessed 7 and the number was 10 you would receive 0 points for that category. The member with the most points wins. In case of a tie please also answer the tie breaker question: Highest intensity in MPH reached in an official NHC advisory during the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season as per the National Hurricane Center. The member that guesses the closest to the exact greatest intensity reached will be declared the winner. In the event that all tied parties guessed the exact same max intensity the tie will be broken by taking the first letter of a members display name and comparing it to the named storms list. The closest member wins. So if one member had the name SnowLover and the other had the name MetsFan and the last name of the season was the "N" name MetsFan would win since M is closer to N than S. A member that changes his or her name will be considered to have cheated and will be disqualified. Winner Take All - Will receive a $25 Gift Card to a local restaurant chain of their choosing, such as Red Lobster, Chilis, ect. Good Luck to All! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 aren't all named storms tropical storms? or should we guess tropical storms that don't become hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 aren't all named storms tropical storms? or should we guess tropical storms that don't become hurricanes?Number of named storms = All Hurricanes and Tropical Storms together.So if you guessed 10 tropical storms and 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane you would say 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I always thought "major" doesn't get added into the total. E.g., 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 2 of them being major hurricanes. Which means there were 15 named storms, 5 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 2 major. I could be wrong though. Named storms is definitely hurricanes + tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 I always thought "major" doesn't get added into the total. E.g., 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 2 of them being major hurricanes. Which means there were 15 named storms, 5 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 2 major. I could be wrong though. Named storms is definitely hurricanes + tropical storms. Well yes, it's total hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Number of named storms: 12 Number of tropical storms: 9 Number of hurricanes: 3 Number of major hurricanes: 1 Number of US Landfalls: 3 tiebreaker Highest intensity in MPH reached in an official NHC advisory during the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: 130MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 13 Number of tropical storms: 7 Number of hurricanes: 6 Number of major hurricanes: 2 Number of US Landfalls: 4 - this includes tropical storms and hurricanes combined tiebreaker Highest intensity in MPH reached in an official NHC advisory during the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: 128 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms = All Hurricanes and Tropical Storms together. So if you guessed 10 tropical storms and 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane you would say 14. I'm a little confused—in other words, the groups are counted individually based on their storms' max intensity, instead of inclusively like the traditional method? So 14 named storms, of which 10 failed to surpass TS intensity, etc.? If so, I'll go with 8 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes for a total of 10 named storms. 2 US landfalls, max winds 85 kts/100 mph. FWIW, guesses as to overall ACE or IKE may prove a better tie-breaker than the screenname thing. Your call though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 11 Number of tropical storms: 7 Number of hurricanes: 4 Number of major hurricanes: 1 Number of US Landfalls: 1 Tiebreaker: 120mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 I'm a little confused—in other words, the groups are counted individually based on their storms' max intensity, instead of inclusively like the traditional method? So 14 named storms, of which 10 failed to surpass TS intensity, etc.? If so, I'll go with 8 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes for a total of 10 named storms. 2 US landfalls, max winds 85 kts/100 mph. FWIW, guesses as to overall ACE or IKE may prove a better tie-breaker than the screenname thing. Your call though! I don't think it will come to that given that's the second tie breaker but that's not a bad idea. To answer your question total named storms is all storms that receive a name, obviously tropical depressions that dissipate before being named aren't counted. So an example would be 10 named storms, 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 of those becoming a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 14 Number of tropical storms: 10 Number of hurricanes: 4 Number of major hurricanes: 2 Number of US Landfalls: 2 Highest intensity in MPH reached in an official NHC advisory during the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: 150MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 8 Number of tropical storms: 4 Number of hurricanes: 4 Number of major hurricanes: 1 Number of US Landfalls: 3 Tiebreaker: 125mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 14 Number of tropical storms: 11 Number of hurricanes: 5 Number of major hurricanes: 2 Number of US Landfalls: 2 Highest intensity in MPH reached in an official NHC advisory during the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: 150MPH Did you mean 16 named storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Author Share Posted May 20, 2014 I would like to point out that number of US landfalls includes all landfalls so if a storm makes landfall in SE Florida and then again in Louisiana that would count as 2. The same can be said about a recurving storm that might make several landfalls while coming up the east coast. Until the system is declared extra-tropical or post-tropical by an official NHC advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Did you mean 16 named storms? Yea I was thinking about tropical depressions that weren't officially tropical storms hence the 14 total storms including TDs or subtropical storms, with 11 of them becoming tropical storms, 5 of those 11 becoming hurricanes and 2 of those 5 becoming major hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 12 Number of tropical storms: 7 Number of hurricanes: 5 Number of major hurricanes: 1 Number of US Landfalls: 2 Tiebreaker: 115mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Alright, here's my predictions: Number of Named Storms: 12 Number of Tropical Storms: 9 Number of Hurricanes: 3 Number of Major Hurricanes: 1 Number of US landfalls: 2 Tiebreaker: 130 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 13 Number of tropical storms: (redundant but) 8 Number of hurricanes: 5 Number of major hurricanes: 2 Number of US Landfalls: 2 Tiebreaker: 145mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Number of named storms: 11Number of tropical storms: 9Number of hurricanes: 2Number of major hurricanes: 1Number of US Landfalls: 1Tiebreaker: 115mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Number of named storms: 12 Number of tropical storms: 8 Number of hurricanes: 4 Number of major hurricanes:1 Number of US Landfalls: 6 Tiebreaker: 125MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 Glad to see a nice amount of participation, the more the merrier. Here are my guesses... Number of named storms: 14 Number of tropical storms: 9 Number of hurricanes: 5 Number of major hurricanes: 1 Number of US Landfalls: 3 Tiebreaker: 135MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 3x10^8 m/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 including the number of tropical storms is redundant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 including the number of tropical storms is redundant Yes, it's bonus points for guessing the number of hurricanes and total number of named storms correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Tot. Systems 13 Hurricanes/TS 6/7 Majors 2 US Landfalls 2 Max. Vel. tie breaker 155mph. Another tie breaker could be lowest pressure in mbs. recorded. Alternately, an entirely different contest could be 1. closest to the final ACE 2. Total # of systems making up this ACE 3. A tie breaker of the final official est. of those killed/missing during entire season. For this I would have picked: 104/13/300dead/missing. Last year would have thrown everyone for a loop with a silly low ACE of about 32 but a larger than average number of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Yes, it's bonus points for guessing the number of hurricanes and total number of named storms correctly. What he meant was that having a total number of named systems, plus (actually, minus) the number of hurricanes, already tells you how many tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 including the number of tropical storms is redundant Number of named storms: 13 Number of tropical storms: (redundant but)8 Number of hurricanes: 5 Number of major hurricanes: 2 Number of US Landfalls: 2 Tiebreaker: 145mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Any met predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Any met predictions? 3 mets total will post in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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