USGS models show a 50% decrease in Conus snowfall by the 2060s

[michsnowfreak]

Global warming has already radically altered snow cover in my area.  Not snowfall yet.  But snow cover has been changed a lot.

 

 

This past winter was the snowiest in terms of snowfall ever in my lifetime going back to 1982 in my city.  40" fell.  Now while this year snow cover was better than any year since 2000 here.  Even 09-10 when we had 30",

 

If only the data wasn't almost non existent.  But this is something that has been observed between the 35-40N latitude belt East of the Rockies.  It gets worse the further South you go obviously.

 

 

I totally get why snow lovers further North are so worried about their snow being hosed by AGW.  I remember vividly realizing this wasn't going to stop and only get worse. 

 

Like temps this varies.  I would assume this phenomenon will keep creeping North.

 

while only getting worse further South.

How has global warming radically altered snowcover in your area?

Xmacis is a climate buffs best friend. I ran St Louis snowcover days of 1"+...since 1893....

 

Average per decade

1900s- 18.9 days

1910s- 18.1 days

1920s- 11.3 days

1930s- M (likely very low)

1940s- 17.5 days (first 6 years M, entire decade average likely lower)

1950s- 9.7 days

1960s- 20.0 days

1970s- 30.2 days

1980s- 21.1 days

1990s- 20.0 days

2000s- 16.9 days

2010s- 22.0 days (so far)

 

The only thing that has radically changed in St Louis is that the anomalously high snowcover years of the well-documented harsh 1970s were a fluke. Winters were MORE BARE in St Louis from 1900-1960 then they are now.

 

Any adult snowlover in the north (say, north of I-80) shouldnt be worried about losing snow...they should be excited about increasing snow from AGW. What happens when they are dead...I dont think they are fretting over.

[OSUmetstud]

What do you mean the implementation of the 6-hour rule? I asked a met (Bill Deedler) from DTX if he knows how long they have been doing 6-hour increments and he said as for as far back as he knows, probably the beginning of record. (He worked at the NWS from 1974-2011, so at least that long). If any period of snowfall record is tainted with snowfall I would say its the FAA years from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s when NWS offices had to beg the FAA to do half-a** snow measurments until NWS employees or snow paid observers took over. Those years many stations basically have low-balled data. I have seen in old data many times when snowdepth the next day would be lower the next day than the snowfall, indicating settling.

That's interesting, but I don't think it was universal.  

[OSUmetstud]

BUF, 1950-2012

[michsnowfreak]

Data from 1930-31 thru 1944-45 is M, though that data would likely paint an even more snowless pic for STL, judging by surrounding areas weather patterns in those mild years.

 

The 20 barest winters in St Louis since 1893 (1"+ snowcover days). Absolute domination by the old days

0 days - 1918-19

1 days - 1953-54

2 days - 1970-71

2 days - 1982-83

3 days - 1900-01

3 days - 1966-67

4 days - 1922-23

4 days - 1949-50

4 days - 1954-55

5 days - 1925-26

5 days - 1956-57

6 days - 1910-11

7 days - 1895-96

7 days - 1916-17

7 days - 1952-53

7 days - 1968-69

7 days - 1971-72

7 days - 1999-00

7 days - 2011-12

8 days - 1912-13

8 days - 2005-06

 

Top 20 whitest winters in STL since 1893 (1"+ snowcover days)

78 days - 1977-78

54 days - 1976-77

51 days - 1978-79

42 days - 1983-84

41 days - 1981-82

40 days - 2010-11

39 days - 1917-18

37 days - 1995-96

35 days - 1911-12

34 days - 2000-01

33 days - 1959-60

32 days - 1901-02

32 days - 1904-05

32 days - 1973-74

30 days - 1963-64

30 days - 1969-70

30 days - 2013-14

29 days - 1894-95

29 days - 1905-06

29 days - 1960-61

[michsnowfreak]

BUF, 1950-2012

Interesting charts...

 

One thing I have noticed across the board is that winters in the 1930s-50s seemed to be far more snowless and barren nationwide than we have seen in recent decades.

[OSUmetstud]

There's no noticeable trend in BUF's snowfall depth record.  I would say the most notable sign of warming is that warmest winter months are in the recent years and it's increasingly difficult to set cold records, but warm records come with relative ease.  

[Jonger]

How has global warming radically altered snowcover in your area?

Xmacis is a climate buffs best friend. I ran St Louis snowcover days of 1"+...since 1893....

 

Average per decade

1900s- 18.9 days

1910s- 18.1 days

1920s- 11.3 days

1930s- M (likely very low)

1940s- 17.5 days (first 6 years M, entire decade average likely lower)

1950s- 9.7 days

1960s- 20.0 days

1970s- 30.2 days

1980s- 21.1 days

1990s- 20.0 days

2000s- 16.9 days

2010s- 22.0 days (so far)

 

The only thing that has radically changed in St Louis is that the anomalously high snowcover years of the well-documented harsh 1970s were a fluke. Winters were MORE BARE in St Louis from 1900-1960 then they are now.

 

Any adult snowlover in the north (say, north of I-80) shouldnt be worried about losing snow...they should be excited about increasing snow from AGW. What happens when they are dead...I dont think they are fretting over.

 

I do care.

 

95% of the population would cheer on the notion of less snow, but I hope we don't see that happen for many other reasons. Sea level rise, heat waves and damaged arctic habitat.

[OSUmetstud]

And Michsnowfreak, I'm not sold on increasing snowfall in a warmed world, either.  I've seen some articles that point to well, "Lake Erie will be open for business more frequently during the winter."  However, this is only but a small part of the larger picture.  In general, BUF's snowiest winters tend to be colder than normal with Lake Erie freezing at least a relatively early date.  A pattern conducive for snowfall is much more important than the fact the lake is unfrozen.  If the lake is unfrozen, it probably hasn't been a favorable pattern for snowfall.  

[michsnowfreak]

I do care.

 

95% of the population would cheer on the notion of less snow, but I hope we don't see that happen for many other reasons, sea level, heat waves and damaged arctic habitat.

I agree...I just meant that anyone who is worrying about a decrease in snow as their primary concern is probably concerned on a year to year basis lol.

[Jonger]

And Michsnowfreak, I'm not sold on increasing snowfall in a warmed world, either.  I've seen some articles that point to well, "Lake Erie will be open for business more frequently during the winter."  However, this is only but a small part of the larger picture.  In general, BUF's snowiest winters tend to be colder than normal with Lake Erie freezing at least a relatively early date.  A pattern conducive for snowfall is much more important than the fact the lake is unfrozen.  If the lake is unfrozen, it probably hasn't been a favorable pattern for snowfall.  

 

True, the snowiest winter of all time in Michigan's top lake belt is still 78-79.

 

http://johndee.com/history.htm

 

This is a great month by month/ year by year rundown of Houghton.

 

Scroll down a bit.

[michsnowfreak]

And Michsnowfreak, I'm not sold on increasing snowfall in a warmed world, either.  I've seen some articles that point to well, "Lake Erie will be open for business more frequently during the winter."  However, this is only but a small part of the larger picture.  In general, BUF's snowiest winters tend to be colder than normal with Lake Erie freezing at least a relatively early date.  A pattern conducive for snowfall is much more important than the fact the lake is unfrozen.  If the lake is unfrozen, it probably hasn't been a favorable pattern for snowfall.  

Im not sold on more snow because of a warmer world so to speak....Im more not sold on a warmer world affecting our winters too much here in the north. Winters havent really warmed here (other then UHI which affects mainly low temps)...and even in the warmer winters we have had recently, snowfall/snowcover has been better then previous winters that were that warm. Of course...this past winter set tons of cold records (record lows, record low maxes, record low means, etc)...but it was just one year.

[OSUmetstud]

True, the snowiest winter of all time in Michigan's top lake belt is still 78-79.

 

http://johndee.com/history.htm

 

This is a great month by month/ year by year rundown of Houghton.

 

Scroll down a bit.

Cool. Thanks for the link.  Erie's and Ontario's belts were maximized in 76-77, with 467" in Hooker, NY, the standing record for east of the Rockies.  That three year period from 1976-1979 was just epic for cold and snow.  

[ORH_wxman]

While this doesn't talk about one specific spot...I ran the numbers from November-March for snow cover on the Rutgers site which starts data in 1967...and for North America, it has positive trends in November, December, and February...with negative trends in January and March...though both of the negative trends were very small...and 1 of the positive trends was small. Overall there was a slight positive trend when you averaged the 5 months.

 

 

That's actually pretty impressive considering the start point of 1967. Considering almost the entire area of North America that is snowless for climo during the winter months is in the U.S., this suggests that U.S. winter snow cover has increased in that time.

 

 

There is no doubt that winters have become significantly warmer since 1967....so the only explanation is the snowfall increase has more than offset the warming to produce the positive snow cover trend. This certianly gives confidence that snowfall has increased over the CONUS in winter.

[BuffaloWeather]

Cool. Thanks for the link.  Erie's and Ontario's belts were maximized in 76-77, with 467" in Hooker, NY, the standing record for east of the Rockies.  That three year period from 1976-1979 was just epic for cold and snow.  

 

And Michsnowfreak, I'm not sold on increasing snowfall in a warmed world, either.  I've seen some articles that point to well, "Lake Erie will be open for business more frequently during the winter."  However, this is only but a small part of the larger picture.  In general, BUF's snowiest winters tend to be colder than normal with Lake Erie freezing at least a relatively early date.  A pattern conducive for snowfall is much more important than the fact the lake is unfrozen.  If the lake is unfrozen, it probably hasn't been a favorable pattern for snowfall.  

 

Another example of your point is just this year. KBUF and most of the Great Lake region had below normal temperatures from November through April. Perrysburg ended up with around 320 inches of snow this year. I am sure only one or two seasons beat that amount, probably during the 77-79 years.

[OSUmetstud]

Definitely an aside, but I was just checking, this past March in BUF was the first March since 1960 to break into the top 10 for coldest Marches.  Most were from the late 1800s and very early 1900s.  

[The_Global_Warmer]

How has global warming radically altered snowcover in your area?

Xmacis is a climate buffs best friend. I ran St Louis snowcover days of 1"+...since 1893....

 

Average per decade

1900s- 18.9 days

1910s- 18.1 days

1920s- 11.3 days

1930s- M (likely very low)

1940s- 17.5 days (first 6 years M, entire decade average likely lower)

1950s- 9.7 days

1960s- 20.0 days

1970s- 30.2 days

1980s- 21.1 days

1990s- 20.0 days

2000s- 16.9 days

2010s- 22.0 days (so far)

 

The only thing that has radically changed in St Louis is that the anomalously high snowcover years of the well-documented harsh 1970s were a fluke. Winters were MORE BARE in St Louis from 1900-1960 then they are now.

 

Any adult snowlover in the north (say, north of I-80) shouldn't be worried about losing snow...they should be excited about increasing snow from AGW. What happens when they are dead...I dont think they are fretting over.

 

Thanks for the stats.  How do they know they are accurate?  Like how is this information compiled?  Myself and others have looked a ton and never found anything.  So it's deeply appreciated.

 

This data would line up with the warming world = more snow idea.  Because the lack of snow cover days from 1900 thru the 1950s isn't because of a lack of cold.

 

The data would also show why people born in the 60s to early 80s would think snow cover has been dropping fast. 

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks for the stats.  How do they know they are accurate?  Like how is this information compiled?  Myself and others have looked a ton and never found anything.  So it's deeply appreciated.

 

This data would line up with the warming world = more snow idea.  Because the lack of snow cover days from 1900 thru the 1950s isn't because of a lack of cold.

 

The data would also show why people born in the 60s to early 80s would think snow cover has been dropping fast. 

 

 

They compile the stats by making a snow depth measurement once per day at observation time.

 

It is probably pretty accurate considering so many other stations showed a positive trend in snow cover days in the midwest. It is not like the STL data is an outlier from what I'm looking at.

[chubbs]

In philly the median and mean are diverging with an increase in the high-end amounts and the number of poor years. 

 

[tacoman25]

Global warming has already radically altered snow cover in my area.  Not snowfall yet.  But snow cover has been changed a lot.

 

 

This past winter was the snowiest in terms of snowfall ever in my lifetime going back to 1982 in my city.  40" fell.  Now while this year snow cover was better than any year since 2000 here.  Even 09-10 when we had 30",

 

If only the data wasn't almost non existent.  But this is something that has been observed between the 35-40N latitude belt East of the Rockies.  It gets worse the further South you go obviously.

 

 

I totally get why snow lovers further North are so worried about their snow being hosed by AGW.  I remember vividly realizing this wasn't going to stop and only get worse. 

 

Like temps this varies.  I would assume this phenomenon will keep creeping North.

 

while only getting worse further South.

 

Yeah, I remember you lamenting how AGW had decimated snowfall in your area. But then somehow St. Louis still pulls off a 40" winter, someone shows the snow cover data, and trends all of the sudden don't look so horrible. 

 

Gotta stay consistent with these claims. Is AGW causing less snow or more snow?

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, I remember you lamenting how AGW had decimated snowfall in your area. But then somehow St. Louis still pulls off a 40" winter, someone shows the snow cover data, and trends all of the sudden don't look so horrible. 

 

Gotta stay consistent with these claims. Is AGW causing less snow or more snow?

 

 

I think it is clear that at least for now, more snow has come with the warming during the winter. Eventually that will change, but it is proof that the system is more complex than just "warmer=less snowy"....and its not just total snowfall, the snow cover has increased. .

[AvantHiatus]

I think it is clear that at least for now, more snow has come with the warming during the winter. Eventually that will change, but it is proof that the system is more complex than just "warmer=less snowy"....and its not just total snowfall, the snow cover has increased. .

FWIW, snowcover melts out faster during the Spring in most years. Appears to be a substantial contrast between seasonal patterns and overall winter is shorter in length. Especially apparent south of 40N. I agree regarding winter trends.

 

AGW has massively boosted my snowfall totals, 3 out of the last 5 winters were 40"+, which is unheard of down here. Contrast to previous decades when only one 30-40" winter occured in the 1990's and 1980's.

[michsnowfreak]

Thanks for the stats.  How do they know they are accurate?  Like how is this information compiled?  Myself and others have looked a ton and never found anything.  So it's deeply appreciated.

 

This data would line up with the warming world = more snow idea.  Because the lack of snow cover days from 1900 thru the 1950s isn't because of a lack of cold.

 

The data would also show why people born in the 60s to early 80s would think snow cover has been dropping fast. 

They should be very accurate. I did the calculations by decade (ie 1909-10 to 1918-19 is 1910s)...but all the data is the official climate data. Snow depth is always taken once a day (obs time), so while obs time may have changed (used to be 7pm now 7am) its the same thing. The snow depth at obs time.

 

All of STL climate data is free online with the Xmacis and NCDC websites. NCDC will give you actual pdf copies of the actual climate data (f6 like), but xmacis will let you view everything from monthly data, season extremes, you can pick any parameter you want, etc. Its really cool and you can play around for hours on it. For the snowcover days, I selected "Monthly summarized data"...variable "snow depth"...summary "number of days"...threshold >= 1...year range "por-2014". For snow data I find its helpful to set the parameters at months 7-6 (Jul-Jun) instead of 1-12.

 

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/#

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html%3bjsessionid=14438FF10CC8FC2949FC1B8EDF759E4D

 

Just remember though..in the 60s-70s, people heard old timers talk of their winters too (which would be the 30s, 40s, etc). They were clearly full of crap.

[michsnowfreak]

They compile the stats by making a snow depth measurement once per day at observation time.

 

It is probably pretty accurate considering so many other stations showed a positive trend in snow cover days in the midwest. It is not like the STL data is an outlier from what I'm looking at.

Detroit snowfall & 1"+ snowcover days avg by decade. For instance...the snowcover wasnt too bad in the 1940s, but with such terrible snowfall....the snowcover was rarely deep. Tons of 1-3" type depths in the 40s.

 

It wont show in the below numbers, but the increase in snow depths and 6"+ snowstorms since the 1970s when compared to the mid-20th century is downright startling here.

 

..............snwfl......1"+ snwcvr

1880s...46.8"....? days

1890s...42.7"....? days

1900s...46.3"....? days

1910s...39.7"....57.8 days

1920s...46.1"....51.7 days

1930s...32.9"....41.8 days

1940s...27.6"....49.2 days

1950s...37.8"....46.7 days

1960s...31.8"....56.3 days

1970s...45.6"....57.1 days

1980s...45.2"....47.1 days

1990s...37.2"....38.0 days

2000s...45.3"....51.8 days

2010s...59.4"....61.5 days (first 4 yrs)

[Jonger]

Definitely trending upward..... 

 

Here's one thing I noticed over the past 15 years. As I call it "Snow on Snow".

 

From my childhood and on into the 1990's, we rarely had snowfall of any significance fall on top of an existing snow-pack. Usually a storm would come and before the next notable storm hit, the previous snow-pack was lost. That all started to change after 1998, we started seeing storms hit while a 6+ inch snow-pack was still in place, sometimes weeks or a month old. This almost NEVER happened in the 1980's or 1990's. We were lucky to hold onto snow-pack for 10 days at a time before a rain soaking torch would take us right back to brown grass. This is anecdotal evidence, but snow-pack figures seem to be trending upward in many US locations, so it might be a pattern developing.... for now.

[WXheights]

I think it is clear that at least for now, more snow has come with the warming during the winter. Eventually that will change, but it is proof that the system is more complex than just "warmer=less snowy"....and its not just total snowfall, the snow cover has increased. .

I agree. Surmising subtle maybe big change in overall frequency of favorable pattern more snow in the NNE and that oh so extra kick from increased water vapor our neck of the woods results in increased snow linked to overall warming, extreme pcpn events. Much rather be here that other parts of country when theirs lack of water.  Actually away from the coast New England may be better able to surf AGW than other parts of the country, but don't tell anybody that.

[michsnowfreak]

Definitely trending upward..... 

 

Here's one thing I noticed over the past 15 years. As I call it "Snow on Snow".

 

From my childhood and on into the 1990's, we rarely had snowfall of any significance fall on top of an existing snow-pack. Usually a storm would come and before the next notable storm hit, the previous snow-pack was lost. That all started to change after 1998, we started seeing storms hit while a 6+ inch snow-pack was still in place, sometimes weeks or a month old. This almost NEVER happened in the 1980's or 1990's. We were lucky to hold onto snow-pack for 10 days at a time before a rain soaking torch would take us right back to brown grass. This is anecdotal evidence, but snow-pack figures seem to be trending upward in many US locations, so it might be a pattern developing.... for now.

Heres an interesting look in the trends of significant snowstorms at Detroit. Everything (liquid equivalent, snow depth, newspaper accounts etc) confirm and ask the question...what the HELL was going on in the mid 20th century?

 

6"+ snowstorms per decade - since 1880.

1880s- 9

1890s- 15

1900s- 17

1910s- 9

1920s- 14

1930s- 9

1940s- 1

1950s- 5

1960s- 5

1970s- 14

1980s- 11

1990s- 11

2000s- 16

2010s- 13 ***thru Apr 2014

 

While there is no reason to expect the big snowstorm trend of the 2010s to keep up its un-climo-like pace, this would put the 2010s "on pace" to have nearly 35 storms of 6"+

[ORH_wxman]

Heres an interesting look in the trends of significant snowstorms at Detroit. Everything (liquid equivalent, snow depth, newspaper accounts etc) confirm and ask the question...what the HELL was going on in the mid 20th century?

 

6"+ snowstorms per decade - since 1880.

1880s- 9

1890s- 15

1900s- 17

1910s- 9

1920s- 14

1930s- 9

1940s- 1

1950s- 5

1960s- 5

1970s- 14

1980s- 11

1990s- 11

2000s- 16

2010s- 13 ***thru Apr 2014

 

While there is no reason to expect the big snowstorm trend of the 2010s to keep up its un-climo-like pace, this would put the 2010s "on pace" to have nearly 35 storms of 6"+

 

 

The 1950s were a horrible period for winter up here too, at least until 1956. The early 1950s had some extremely warm and snowless winters across a lot of the CONUS. The early 1930s also had some extraordinarily warm winters as well in the northeast.

 

Clearly they were pretty terrible in the lakes too. The 1930s-1950s coincided with a +AMO/+NAO decadal regime which hasn't happened since (except maybe the late 1990s)...when the NAO started turning negative in the mid 1950s, the AMO was also trending negative and when the NAO went positive in the mid 1970s, the AMO was deeply negative until it went positive in the mid 1990s...but then the NAO was starting to head back down, though remained mostly positive through about 2000.

 

There may be something to that +AMO/+NAO regime which is lousy for winter. Though it seemed the bad years in the lakes extended in the 1960s while in the northeast (esp New England), the 1960s were one of the most prolific snow periods on record.

[tacoman25]

FWIW, snowcover melts out faster during the Spring in most years. Appears to be a substantial contrast between seasonal patterns and overall winter is shorter in length. Especially apparent south of 40N. I agree regarding winter trends.

 

AGW has massively boosted my snowfall totals, 3 out of the last 5 winters were 40"+, which is unheard of down here. Contrast to previous decades when only one 30-40" winter occured in the 1990's and 1980's.

 

Not seeing it, at least in the U.S.

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

Not seeing it, at least in the U.S.

 

 

us.png

December 21st is the first day of winter. The pattern has definitely favored the upper midwest for cold in recent years. Would be nice to have a map that has total snowfall relative to average as a percentage for every state. I think snow climo for 36N and south has dropped off massively from where it was in the mid 20th century.

 

Last winter was feast or famine for many areas in the mid-atlantic and southeast.

[ORH_wxman]

Why would you start in February? December 21st is the first day of winter. The pattern has definitely favored the upper midwest for cold in recent years. Would be nice to have a map that has total snowfall relative to average as a percentage for every state. I think snow climo for 36N and south has dropped off massively from where it was in the mid 20th century.

 

Last winter was feast or famine for many areas in the mid-atlantic and southeast.

 

 

He bolded the section of your quote he was responding to....the idea that winter is shorter in length. His started in February because that is the last month of meterological winter. Feb-Mar-Apr has been colder in very recent years...though the longterm trend is certainly up just like most other months.