metalicwx366 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Lemon went away yesterday, but has been resurrected this morning. GFS still teasing the Southeast with something 'next week'. Too bad next week never gets here The GFS f*cking sucks! Was showing development in 48 hours and now shows nothing until next week. Wow that was one hell of a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The GFS f*cking sucks! Was showing development in 48 hours and now shows nothing until next week. Wow that was one hell of a tease. In June I don't start paying attention until a depression forms. Much better for your mental health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 In June I don't start paying attention until a depression forms. Much better for your mental health.It may already be a lost cause, metals mental state! We may need a tropical disturbance to catch alot of us back up to normal rainfall, if the pattern doesn't change soon ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 In June I don't start paying attention until a depression forms. Much better for your mental health. Glad I'm not the only one doing this! Ignoring the models also speed up days toward the peak of season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 We got an.....apple? My guess it's going to shear out as it goes over land before it becomes official...one can only hope, I can't have this becoming the first TD if my guess is on 6/16 The HWRF has it shearing out near landfall then reforming off the coast...if it does become a TD likely shortest lived TD of the season? Assuming it does, does the 6/10 guess win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Welp, it's a dud...that was a close one. Pretty crazy considering the NOAA recon mission was tasked, it was CLOSE, pretty sure it found SUB-tropical depression sustained winds but can't find the data right at this moment. I know there were flight-level winds of 45 or so knots for 10s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Hmmmmmm http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 GFS trying to develop a system into the gulf and into the Gulf states. Of course it's way far out and I haven't seen the Euro develop anything around there yet but there's plenty of anomalous energy around below cuba around same time period so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Thar she blows!! 06z 6/13/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Still there at 12z Of course, it's been there, 2 weeks away, for the last 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Wow, still in the game and looking better every day for my August 1 prediction! Just seems like the entire season is running a month late this year. Almost july and we just now hit a string of 90's. I just hope october doesnt turn out warm as well. Nothing worse than a hot and muggy halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB this might make a run at it if it can get to the surface and drift NE a little but the window is short for it to get to TD or TS status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB this might make a run at it if it can get to the surface and drift NE a little but the window is short for it to get to TD or TS status Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Nope. yeah easy come easy go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Wow, still in the game and looking better every day for my August 1 prediction! Just seems like the entire season is running a month late this year. Almost july and we just now hit a string of 90's. I just hope october doesnt turn out warm as well. Nothing worse than a hot and muggy halloween. My guess of June 25th is still in the game, but it is not looking too promising right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I like June 15th just off coast of Carolinas on Atlantic side. In 12 years of tracking, that area seem to get the storm first most of years around late June or early July. Busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 This one is going to go......it will be close to land but as for now should never really threaten land once it forms......at least that's the modeling as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 This one is going to go......it will be close to land but as for now should never really threaten land once it forms......at least that's the modeling as of now. two_atl.gif It's up to 30% as of 8:00AM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. A weak low pressure system located just off the coast of SouthCarolina is producing an area of disorganized showers andthunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remainconducive for gradual development of this system whileit drifts southward during the next few days.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Got to love these home grown systems like this, models really giving it life now will be named by Sunday night if they are right...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Got to love these home grown systems like this, models really giving it life now will be named by Sunday night if they are right......Yeah love these types of systems. So interesting to track especially when they get stronger than expected. Check out the NAM lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Yeah RI is pretty rare off the se coast its happened a few times Diana in 1984 comes to mind but really these things tend to sit and slowly build out there, but if there is anywhere in the entire basin that is favorable for a storm its right off the SE coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Up to 40/60% now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 91L has a sort of 2012 Berryl vibe to it. Gets shoved to the coast, then could sit and slurp up warm water and slosh the eastern Carolinas next weekend. If it gets as far south as the NAM and Euro suggest, there certainly won't be anything to hurry its departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Gonna need a 91L thread I guess one of you inland guys that need rain need to start it......we can do without down here I am headed to the river in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Gonna need a 91L thread I guess one of you inland guys that need rain need to start it......we can do without down here I am headed to the river in a few weeks. I usually would beg for tropical system to bring rain inland but I've had over 5 inches of rain this week solely off low level easterly upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 6/29/14, 11:35 Post explains this map: greatest outflow quads of jet in ideal position lat Wed-Fri. Storm late Wed marked by X pic.twitter.com/GMZH2BMZlO Joe feels the atmosphere is loaded for bear with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I never posted my official prediction... The first system to have advisories written on them will somewhere on either side of Florida and then go off the East Coast...this will happen June 28th. Sooo...nicely done! July 3. Skirts, and 'show panties', before full exposure to the boys in the UK. SE of NC/SC. Big, round tease. Not a bad prediction for overall system date and location, I think.. We've got some modern day Nostradamuses in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I believe I would declare this the winner. Of course he only has 5 posts, so he hasn't yet been contaminated by the rest of us. I'll throw my hat in the ring. I've been surprised before but I have a hunch that this may be a slow year. My guess would be the first week of July. I could be wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I was only off a week.... and sort of close June 23rd in the Bahamas *shrug* As good a guess as anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I believe I would declare this the winner. Of course he only has 5 posts, so he hasn't yet been contaminated by the rest of us. TD #1 formed on June 30th 11pm, from what I remember so that's why I thought 28th won, 1st week of July, too vague IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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