mattinpa Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Thanks Tony. I think we will probably get our hottest period of the summer relative to normal, and maybe even absolutes, in late August. My maximum temp so far is a fairly temperate. I think most of us will break 95 at some point in late August. I am hoping not 95; I really dislike hot ends to summer. It's still far out so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I know it's really early but was wondering if we have a pattern change in the end of August wouldn't that most likely effect the upcoming winter. Was thinking that it would most likely be above normal then. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 A case of seasonal trends and more normal or will the late season heat be delayed but not denied. Lets see if the ridging can deliver the heat/warmth in the 8/26 - 9/7 period. Signal remain strong that heights look to stay elevated into the east with continued troughing into the west (a change from much of the last 6 weeks.) Any trough/front looks transient in this period. Lets see if we can sustain some positives and perhaps some strong positives. 90s possible Wed/Thu (8/27 - 28) with perhaps more heat 30/31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Tony, while the heat opined here for late August will definitely bust, the month certainly looks to end warm with generally near to slightly above normal temps through the 31st. Additionally, I continue to believe my idea for a warmer than normal September from awhile back will come to fruition. The seasonal transition of the jet should yield a retrogression of the mean trough axis into the northern Plains/Rockies for September and a stronger West Atlantic Ridge. The CFS V2 likes the idea of a warm East: The Japanese model agrees with the notion of an Upper-MW trough and East Coast ridge: The ECMWF weeklies are also quite warm heading into September. We'll still see some Canadian airmasses, but I think most will notice the transition toward a regime dominated by normal or above normal days for the ensuing 20-40 day period. The first week of September should be warmer than normal as the EPO becomes more positive and the PNA negative, leading to a trough pattern in the Gulf of Alaska into the Rockies/NW USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 No heat waves through the end of this month but most of us should hit 90. Wednesday has a shot and again this weekend as Tony noted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 So what does a warm September mean for this upcoming winter or does it not mean much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Cristobal recurving is enhancing the ridge over the area this week. The 588dm heights, 850mb temps near 18C, west winds could support temps reaching 90 in spots by Wednesday/Thursday. Think we see another cool down to start next weekend, before we might warm up again, We'll have to see Cristobal does with the NAO and the MJO stuff. I'm not ready to buy the long-range extended guidance, show prolonged warmth. The Euro weeklies have been poor showing it since the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Cristobal recurving is enhancing the ridge over the area this week. The 588dm heights, 850mb temps near 18C, west winds could support temps reaching 90 in spots by Wednesday/Thursday. Think we see another cool down to start next weekend, before we might warm up again, We'll have to see Cristobal does with the NAO and the MJO stuff. I'm not ready to buy the long-range extended guidance, show prolonged warmth. The Euro weeklies have been poor showing it since the Spring. Looks like we're trending warm. Summer in September? I consider Met-summer to be June 6 to September 6 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I guess summer 2014 just started this weekend took long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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