SACRUS Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Highlights of the upcoming period 6/28 - 6/29 : Temps slightly above normal temps in the 85 - 90 range 6/30 - 7/2 : Temps above normal potential for first heat- wave for the warmer spots. Peak of heat wed. 7/3 : Rain cold front 7/4 - 7/7: Temps near normal 7/8 - beyond: heights rise ridge builds east, warmer temps and next shot at some 90 degree heat. Ridge building in over the region will set the stage for 4 days of warm to hot temps. Some of the warmer spots may see the seasons first heatwave with temp peaking on wed. Even the park should break the 90 degree mark (LGA too). Cold front slowly approaches Thursday and lingers into the 4th but should clear in time for the afternoon. Temps cool back towards or below normal by 4th of July weekend but it looks mainly dry/warm. Models hinting that heights rise in on/around 7/8 and into the following weekend. It will be interesting to see how we progress with heat this week and see if the ridge could penetrate east 7/8 and beyond. Guidance seems mainly consistent on building some higher heights nation-wide between 7/7 - 710 so heat and humidity look to return on/around 7/7 after a very dry and near normal weekend (7/5-7/6). Some hints that 7/8 - 7/10 could see heatwave criteria throughout the area. Will see how the latest guidance progresses later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 5, 2014 Author Share Posted July 5, 2014 7/7 - 7/9 : Widespread heat peaking tue/wed (pending on timing with the front). Temps may hit mid 90s. 7/10 - 7/15: Overall warmer than normal with periods of heat. As we approach the period 7/7 - 7/14 continues to look warm with occasional cold fronts/storms. The WAR will build west and heat from the southwest and Rockies ridge will spread east. First shot at 90 begins Sunday for some and much more widespread mon - tue. Pattern looks to remain overall warm once past the 10th with more heat likely in the 7/10 - 7/15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2014 Author Share Posted July 10, 2014 7/10 - 7/13 : Temps near normal 7/14 - 7/15 : Warmer, storms and more humid (potential 90+ degree readings) 7/16 - 7/20 : Cooler than normal 7/22 : Warmer pattern returns Temperatures will moderate near normal the next few days, making way for yet another fantastic weekend. Warmer air ahead of the next cold front will offer a day or two (7/14-15) with humid and warm conditions with potential 90 degree readings in some spots. The overall warmer pattern will likely reverse the middle (7/16) of next week as the west coast ridge builds significantly and forces a trough into the Mid West and East coast. Cooler regime with deep trough centered over the GL/MW will also bring overall temps near or cooler than normal between 7/17 - 7/21. Beyond there guidance has hinted the WAR will build west as the trough lifts out with warming on/around 7/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 7/10 - 7/13 : Temps near normal 7/14 - 7/15 : Warmer, storms and more humid (potential 90+ degree readings) 7/16 - 7/20 : Cooler than normal 7/22 : Warmer pattern returns Temperatures will moderate near normal the next few days, making way for yet another fantastic weekend. Warmer air ahead of the next cold front will offer a day or two (7/14-15) with humid and warm conditions with potential 90 degree readings in some spots. The overall warmer pattern will likely reverse the middle (7/16) of next week as the west coast ridge builds significantly and forces a trough into the Mid West and East coast. Cooler regime with deep trough centered over the GL/MW will also bring overall temps near or cooler than normal between 7/17 - 7/21. Beyond there guidance has hinted the WAR will build west as the trough lifts out with warming on/around 7/22. No real changes on the above.. We'll continue to ride near to slightly above normal today and warm up Sunday - Tuesday. Pending on storms we may sneak in some 90 degree readings between 13 - 15 ahead of the front. Cooldown should peak thu/fri with temps a good 5 - 10 below normal. Latest guidance continues to support a quick reversal and warmup by next weekend (7/20) with higher heights and heat pushing into the region by the week of 7/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 7/18 - 7/20 : Normal to below normal 7/21 - 7/25 : Warmer pattern with heat likely tue - thu 7/26 - 7/30: Trough and unsettled period, temps near or below normal 7/31, beyond : Looks like an overall warmer pattern may take shape with hotter air pushing into the middle and eastern US Cllouds and storms muted early week heat and kept confined to C/S-NJ. Cooldown looks to peak with departures of 3 to -5 and no days below 80. Warmer trend begins Monday as trough lifts out and higher heights build in. Latest guidance builds in some heat and the neext shot at 90s by tue (7/22) and pending on the timing of the front may linger into Friday (7/25). Trough digs into the northeast by next weekend (7/26) with temps near or below normal. Latest guidance hinting a wamrer pattern to develop towards the end of July/early August as ridge may shift to the Plains and produce nation-wide warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I keep hearing about guidance showing widespread warmups in the long range only to have it be significantly diminished. Why expect any different from the very consistent and persistent pattern we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 18, 2014 Author Share Posted July 18, 2014 I keep hearing about guidance showing widespread warmups in the long range only to have it be significantly diminished. Why expect any different from the very consistent and persistent pattern we've been in. So far most of the heat that has been forecast has materialized. including late June and early July. Next week Tue - thu/fri looks hot and may feature some more low to mid 90s, perhaps higher if it trends hotter. I havent seen much mideling that has locked in a ridge/prolonged hot pattern this summer, yet. Its been back and forth bias warmer against normal and that looks to continue. What has been a theme is the cool remanis strongest west into thee Lakes/MW and guidance has trended warmer when the troughs/cool arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 The back and forth will continue which is nice to see. It's a pleasant change from nonstop heat for weeks on end like with the last few Julys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 We'll be shoveling in five months. Really like the look for next winter. Seems like we could continue where last winter left off. weak nino - EPO (Alaskan ridge part ii) we never really lost this yet. +TNH pattern ? looks to continue. WXrisk mentioned it last winter. Neutral to negative AO Arctic looks to be chilling down already Neutral NAO look likely I think a good to great winter. I think lots of shoveling again. What do you think ?? Once the impatiens shrivel up in four months, and the frosts arrive. Time to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 So far most of the heat that has been forecast has materialized. including late June and early July. Next week Tue - thu/fri looks hot and may feature some more low to mid 90s, perhaps higher if it trends hotter. I havent seen much mideling that has locked in a ridge/prolonged hot pattern this summer, yet. Its been back and forth bias warmer against normal and that looks to continue. What has been a theme is the cool remanis strongest west into thee Lakes/MW and guidance has trended warmer when the troughs/cool arrives. Looks like Upton backed off any heat wave ideas....though I suspect many places will be at least close to 90 2 of the 3 days .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. .TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLYCLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUESIN THE MID 90S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMINGMOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THELOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 We'll be shoveling in five months. Really like the look for next winter. Seems like we could continue where last winter left off. weak nino - EPO (Alaskan ridge part ii) we never really lost this yet. +TNH pattern ? looks to continue. WXrisk mentioned it last winter. Neutral to negative AO Arctic looks to be chilling down already Neutral NAO look likely I think a good to great winter. I think lots of shoveling again. What do you think ?? Once the impatiens shrivel up in four months, and the frosts arrive. Time to think I'm giving this winter some thought. I will keep an eye on the pattern. So far it looks alright. One thing for sure we might have larger nor'easters with much colder temps (a colder V-Day 2014 Nor'easter). I'm basing this on where we are going so far. Not mentioning P-Types though. Any further detailed analysis will be pointless unless if we look at the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 If we get a weak El-Niño next winter is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 If we get a weak El-Niño next winter is going to be good. That's pretty likely, but an El Nino Modoki is unclear ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 If we get a weak El-Niño next winter is going to be good. 06-07 was a weak El Nino, that was a great winter here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 06-07 was a weak El Nino, that was a great winter here? I don't know where people got that a weak el nino is all way need to ensure a great winter around here. So many other things have to go right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 06-07 was a weak El Nino, that was a great winter here? 2nd half was brutally cold. We just didnt luck out with storms unless the sleet fest is your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 I prefer last year's -epo regime. Very cold snowstorms and cold overall. None of the annoying borderline 31-33 degree snow. Give me 15 degrees and light to moderate snow all day over 32 degrees and moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 06-07 was a weak El Nino, that was a great winter here? I was unable to find this information on the Upton page so I only have Mt. Holly to work with. Since the 1949-1950 winter we've had 5 other weak Nina's. Of those 5, all 5 had at least one 6" or more snowfall at Philadelphia and 3 had a 10" or more snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 21, 2014 Author Share Posted July 21, 2014 We should start a thread on Early winter '14/'15 discussions or this good discussion may be lost in the summer thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2014 Author Share Posted July 25, 2014 Back and forth pattern continues as we close out July and open August. Deep trough will dig into the MW/NE between the 29th and 31st before the western Atlantic ridge (WAR) expands west and forces heights to rise along the east by August first. Ahead of this roller coaster - 5 star weather today (7/25) through the weekend (7/27) with temps in the 85 - 90 range. 7/29 - 7/31 Trough digs in with temps dropping below normal -5 to -10 peaking Wed/Thu (7/29 - 7/30). 8/1 - 8/6: Return of the WAR, still way out there but most guidance builds in the WAR at varying strengths but overall looking warm and humid as deep southerly flow sets up, may deal with a day with more E-SE before going S-SSW. The period will likely include increased rain/storm chances and ultimately reminds me of the late June 2013 pattern (ahead of the heat). Beyond there, the pattern may go more flat and less troughing into the Midwest.. We'll see if the roller coaster has another dip for the second week of june or a straight track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 Good writeup Sacrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2014 Share Posted July 25, 2014 counting today 21 of the 55 days since June 1st were below normal in KNYC...34 days were above normal...15 days within one degree of normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Back and forth pattern continues as we close out July and open August. Deep trough will dig into the MW/NE between the 29th and 31st before the western Atlantic ridge (WAR) expands west and forces heights to rise along the east by August first. Ahead of this roller coaster - 5 star weather today (7/25) through the weekend (7/27) with temps in the 85 - 90 range. 7/29 - 7/31 Trough digs in with temps dropping below normal -5 to -10 peaking Wed/Thu (7/29 - 7/30). 8/1 - 8/6: Return of the WAR, still way out there but most guidance builds in the WAR at varying strengths but overall looking warm and humid as deep southerly flow sets up, may deal with a day with more E-SE before going S-SSW. The period will likely include increased rain/storm chances and ultimately reminds me of the late June 2013 pattern (ahead of the heat). Beyond there, the pattern may go more flat and less troughing into the Midwest.. We'll see if the roller coaster has another dip for the second week of june or a straight track... So far the forecast is behaving as modeled and projected from late last week. It looks like the models that went weaker WAR expansion will be right. Still looks like a mainly southerly flow will create warm humid conditions with increased rain chances starting this weekend and into early next week. Beyond there between 8/5 - 8/10 looks to continue with normal temps and less amplified flow. Som hints that heights rise into the east after a trough moves through the northeast, we'll have to see how it progresses, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Last night's ECMWF weeklies continued the theme of a fairly notable regime shift by about August 19th +/- a couple days, keeping the majority of the Eastern US in a warmer than normal pattern virtually every day from August 19th right through the end of its run, September 5th. Looks to me like we see at least one more cool/dry shot via the burgeoning western ridge toward the middle of next week, then we "should" begin the shift about 10-15 days from now. Of course, as most of us know from past experience, pattern changes tend to be forecasted earlier than reality as the modeling often rushes changes. But in this particular case, there is strong analog support for a warmer than normal September (and now model support as we see with the CFS v2) so it's really only a matter of time before we flip the regime IMO. The NAO is progged to neutralize and potentially move into slightly positive territory in a couple weeks -- if this occurs, it will strengthen the West Atlantic Ridge (that feature gave us the brutal June 20-July 20 period last summer) and cause it to retrograde westward toward the east coast. Interestingly enough, a WAR pattern w/ the mean trough centered in the Lakes/OH valley is a conducive synoptic-set-up for tropical cyclone activity near the east coast. So I'm also concerned about a heightened risk this year, but it's like throwing darts blindfolded as far as which spot would have the greatest risk. There are many IF's, but if the pattern evolves as expected, that could be something to watch. While the CFS clearly has us above normal temps for September: It seems to be hinting at possible tropical activity near the east coast given the very wet look from the Northeast US southward along the immediate shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Last night's ECMWF weeklies continued the theme of a fairly notable regime shift by about August 19th +/- a couple days, keeping the majority of the Eastern US in a warmer than normal pattern virtually every day from August 19th right through the end of its run, September 5th. Looks to me like we see at least one more cool/dry shot via the burgeoning western ridge toward the middle of next week, then we "should" begin the shift about 10-15 days from now. Of course, as most of us know from past experience, pattern changes tend to be forecasted earlier than reality as the modeling often rushes changes. But in this particular case, there is strong analog support for a warmer than normal September (and now model support as we see with the CFS v2) so it's really only a matter of time before we flip the regime IMO. The NAO is progged to neutralize and potentially move into slightly positive territory in a couple weeks -- if this occurs, it will strengthen the West Atlantic Ridge (that feature gave us the brutal June 20-July 20 period last summer) and cause it to retrograde westward toward the east coast. Interestingly enough, a WAR pattern w/ the mean trough centered in the Lakes/OH valley is a conducive synoptic-set-up for tropical cyclone activity near the east coast. So I'm also concerned about a heightened risk this year, but it's like throwing darts blindfolded as far as which spot would have the greatest risk. There are many IF's, but if the pattern evolves as expected, that could be something to watch. While the CFS clearly has us above normal temps for September: It seems to be hinting at possible tropical activity near the east coast given the very wet look from the Northeast US southward along the immediate shoreline. A few of the tropical mets were menchoning 99 and 38 as possible analogs. Both of those years had east coast tropical systems. To make matters worse it would appear that the El Nino is virtually non existent. Upper level conditions in the tropics are now forecasted to improve as we head deeper into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2014 Author Share Posted August 8, 2014 So far the forecast is behaving as modeled and projected from late last week. It looks like the models that went weaker WAR expansion will be right. Still looks like a mainly southerly flow will create warm humid conditions with increased rain chances starting this weekend and into early next week. Beyond there between 8/5 - 8/10 looks to continue with normal temps and less amplified flow. Som hints that heights rise into the east after a trough moves through the northeast, we'll have to see how it progresses, WAR positioning east did not produce the warmth this first part of August and clouds and rain kept it cooler than normal last weekend. Though the first 7 days of August more of the same with normal to slightly below normal temps. Looking ahead we should see more of the same as we continue in the great dry and warm pattern through next Tuesday (8/12). Should see temps right at normal with perhaps some over performing warmth this weekend into early next week that tilts the period on the plus side of normal. Beyond there another strong trough will push through into the northeast next Wed (8/13) and linger into the following weekend (8/16). The period looks like it could be potentially stormy and overall cooler than normal with closed UL low over northern New England for a period. As we approach the week of the 18th, longer range guidance is trending to dig a trough into the west and build heights into the east. GFS by way of retrograding WAR and ECM building a ridge into the MW. We'll see if the idea of more sustained ridging into the east continues on guidance or the seasonal trend of trouging continues. 8/8 - 8/12 : Dry, temps normal to slightly above (0 to +1.5), outside chance of a 90 in the warmer spots (sun/Mon) 8/13 - 8/17 : Trough, increased storms, temps near or below normal -1.5 to 0). 8/18 and beyond : Heights increase in the east. Warm to hot finish to the month? Tropics concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2014 Author Share Posted August 8, 2014 Last night's ECMWF weeklies continued the theme of a fairly notable regime shift by about August 19th +/- a couple days, keeping the majority of the Eastern US in a warmer than normal pattern virtually every day from August 19th right through the end of its run, September 5th. Iso - great writeup and so far guidance continues to hint at the warm finish as you highlighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Ridge in the east plus peak hurricane season equals tropical disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2014 Author Share Posted August 8, 2014 Ridge in the east plus peak hurricane season equals tropical disaster? Could get interesting between 8/18 and labor day if things oprogress as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Iso - great writeup and so far guidance continues to hint at the warm finish as you highlighted. Thanks Tony. I think we will probably get our hottest period of the summer relative to normal, and maybe even absolutes, in late August. My maximum temp so far is a fairly temperate. I think most of us will break 95 at some point in late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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