Summer time and the livin's easy

[HailMan06]

Correct, but the areas directly around the censor are.

Fyi the correct spelling is "sensor."

[BxEngine]

"Sensor"

Censure.

[IsentropicLift]

Fyi the correct spelling is "sensor."

I never said I was the best speller in the group

[Isotherm]

For people that live in the immediate NYC metro area, that is, the area bounded by the following red boundaries:

 

 

Your summer temperatures / highs are probably closer to EWR or LGA than Central Park. One look at the satellite image will tell you why. Central Park is the most green area (or one of) in the 5 boroughs and extreme NE NJ. There might be some spots within NYC where your temps are closer to Central Park b/c of the tree density. But I'd wager that 80% or more of people within the 5 boroughs and NE NJ have high temps closer to Newark/LGA than Central Park.

 

It's a different story for interior NNJ and CNJ. Here in Monmouth County, my high temps are more similar to Central Park, because as would be expected, the rural nature of my area prevents some of the extreme heat. In the summer of 2010, I recorded 38 days with highs of 90F or greater, very close to NYC's 37-38 days I believe, and much lower than Newark's 50+.

 

But for the majority of the population within NE NJ through the 5 boroughs, EWR and LGA more closely represent the highs in the summer season. For CNJ and interior NNJ, Central Park ends up being closer.

 

 

 

[uncle W]

KNYC's data is not representative of the rest of the NYC metro area. LGA/JFK/EWR are all more representative of the NYC Metro area because most of the area is densely populated and in the city it is a concrete jungle. A park is never going to be a good representation of the climate in that situation because no one lives in the park. This is pretty basic stuff here and basing the conversation on the outskirts of the metro doesn't make sense since it is the least populated areas.

I agree about the park but JFK is on the water and is effected by sea breezes...LGA is on the river and is effected by winds off it...A SW wind travels over Brooklyn and Queens before it gets there...night time lows are higher because of that sometimes...Newark is at sea level with hills just to the NW...Central Park is over 100ft up while the rest are near sea level...Where I lived in Brooklyn it was hotter than Central Park or cooler depending on the wind direction...Staten Island has its own little climate...The NW side is closer to Newarks readings but near the Ocean it's cooler in the Summer...The park has records that go back to 1869...the others come after the early 1930's...even on Staten Island parks are cooler than built up areas...

[bluewave]

Shouldn't it have to do with proximity to the city though?

 

Certainly Middlesex and Monmouth Counties are very close to NYC yet aren't part of the "Concrete Jungle" and both of those counties are well populated.

 

A case can even be made for Westchester County. Once you get north of Yonkers it's a whole different ballgame. Heck even most of Yonkers has growth and vegetation. Even the northern Bronx has vegetation.

 

We use LGA and EWR as good representations of urban metro temperatures. Once you get out to your location

it's closer to rural areas of the metro region with cooler temperatures and better annual snowfall.

[ag3]

We use LGA and EWR as good representations of urban metro temperatures. Once you get out to your location

it's closer to rural areas of the metro region with cooler temperatures and better annual snowfall.

 

JFK is representative of a lot of LI and the south shore of NYC's boroughs though.

Your location for sure is on par with JFK.

[bluewave]

JFK is representative of a lot of LI and the south shore of NYC's boroughs though.

Your location for sure is on par with JFK.

 

Yeah, my location in Western Nassau is just ENE of JFK.

[doncat]

Take Staten Island or New Brunswick , both of which usually align closer to EWR than the park on the hotter days, 

Correct... Its not that the central park sensors are in a park setting, the problem is that the vegetation has grown to the point that it is blocking sunlight from overhead I believe.. the thermo shelter should be exposed to an open sky. My station has wooded areas on three sides with no structures other than my house for approx. 150-400 feet and my temps are more in line with Newark on hot days.

[SnoSki14]

What does the term metro area mean to you?

 

And besides most people outside of this website don't care about the weather.

Sure they do, most people always check the weather daily to see what it's going to be like outside, how to dress in the morning before work, whether to bring an umbrella or not, whether to prepare for a dangerous rush hour commute, whether to go to the park, beach, or pool and that's just the general public. People who work in agriculture or in boating, aviators and pilots, and on and on all care about the weather. 

 

The difference is most people don't obsess or over think it as much as the weather weenies do. Even those who work in the weather field as climatologists or meteorologists are not as obsessive as some folks are. 

 

And wow the 18z gfs really wants to cook us in the long range, we'd be seeing some 90F+ readings for sure. I know there's hints of this heat and it's we've seen it in years past so this wouldn't surprise me. 

[Guest Pamela]

The NWS has a cooperative network for the very purpose of highlighting differences in climate over short distances...Long Island, New Jersey, and Westchester all have multiple cooperative stations that keep daily records for this reason.  The records are printed in publications like Climatological Data.   But stations like Central Park, LaGuardia, Newark, & JFK...these are what we call first order weather stations and it is their data which is generally most quoted...often because the stations are in close proximity to major population centers.

[Guest acoolerclimate]

I live in Nutley, about 9 miles north of Newark Airport as the crow flies. My house sits on an open park, but there are lots of shade trees. My temperatures are always cooler than Newark's. My high temps in the summer are about what they are in Central Park, but my low temps are always cooler than central park, and in the winter especially they can be as much as 15 degrees cooler. For myself, it's not really daytime temps in the first order stations that bother me so much, but nighttime lows. Central Park always seem way high at night compared to suburban areas, and even Newark's seem higher. I go into NYC most weekends at a place near Gramercy Park, and even there during the winter there will be frozen water, and yet the low at Central Park is above freezing all night. Weird. 

 

I wish there was a first order station somewhere more suburban that isn't close to the ocean. I work out in Morristown and the weather there can be very different than in Newark or NYC and it would be nice to have an official record of that, along with actual snowfall data. It's great that there are cooperative stations, but it's hard to get all the data from them and especially hard to get good long term snowfall records with no gaps. 

 

I do have to say thank goodness all of our first order stations record snowfall, many of them across the country don't anymore, or have missing data. That drives me crazy. I also wish Trenton, NJ hadn't closed as a first order station, as I thought that one was a good representation of central NJ. 

[BlueSkiesFading]

I live in Nutley, about 9 miles north of Newark Airport as the crow flies. My house sits on an open park, but there are lots of shade trees. My temperatures are always cooler than Newark's. My high temps in the summer are about what they are in Central Park, but my low temps are always cooler than central park, and in the winter especially they can be as much as 15 degrees cooler. For myself, it's not really daytime temps in the first order stations that bother me so much, but nighttime lows. Central Park always seem way high at night compared to suburban areas, and even Newark's seem higher. I go into NYC most weekends at a place near Gramercy Park, and even there during the winter there will be frozen water, and yet the low at Central Park is above freezing all night. Weird. 

 

I wish there was a first order station somewhere more suburban that isn't close to the ocean. I work out in Morristown and the weather there can be very different than in Newark or NYC and it would be nice to have an official record of that, along with actual snowfall data. It's great that there are cooperative stations, but it's hard to get all the data from them and especially hard to get good long term snowfall records with no gaps. 

 

I do have to say thank goodness all of our first order stations record snowfall, many of them across the country don't anymore, or have missing data. That drives me crazy. I also wish Trenton, NJ hadn't closed as a first order station, as I thought that one was a good representation of central NJ. 

Yea, I live right near you and the high temps on my Davis weather station are usually about 2 degrees cooler than Newark which I guess makes sense being in a more suburban location than the airport. The station that really kills me though is Teterboro, which is less than 5 miles from me, and has routinely been coming in with temps 4-5 degrees higher than mine for the past year or so. I wish they'd fix the temp sensor there, but I doubt anything will be done, or if the NWS is even aware there's an issue. 

 

Edit: For example, TEB is reporting 61 degrees as of 8:51PM, while it's 56.1 here, 55 in Newark, and 56 at Caldwell.

[xdurango]

You have 15,000 + plus posts ...

 

Time to evaluate how you spend your time ...

 

Everywhere else in the Metro area? Here we go with broad generalizations again.

 

What a waste of an hour I'll never get back.

[REDMK6GLI]

JMA was pretty darn accurate this past winter and this spring thus far. Must be taking account the western atlantic ridge flexing its muscles again possibly. I suppose we'll see what june is going to look like as we get closer to memorial day.

[Isotherm]

The JMA seasonal forecast that just came out today has the summer temperatures

above normal here. It looks like the official forecast has our area close to a +1 for

JJA. 

 

Y201405.D1100_gl0.png

 

Y201405.D1100_gl2.png

 

 

The JAMSTEC model, also out of Japan, disagrees with the JMA. The April forecast for JJA depicted cooler than normal temp anomalies. Their May forecast update will be issued soon, so it'll be interesting to see if it changes.

[JBG]

If KNYC has a cool bias due to growth then KLGA, KEWR and KJFK all have warm biases due to being located in concrete jungles. The KEWR sensor is literally right between a runway and the NJ Turnpike.

Not to mention that KEWR is surrounded by about 12 lanes or more of NJ Turnpike, 10 lanes or so of I-78 and the runways.

[SACRUS]

GFS and ECM showing overall higher heights into the east with a building warmer pattern once past this weeks unsettled weather.  As we track heat in this thread we may have the first signal for widespread 90 degree readings in the Jun 15 - Jun 18 timeframe.   Not a super hot pattern but building ridge may peak out with a day or 2 with 90 (+) degree readings. Will keep an eye on this and also begin to get some long range feelers for the 4th of July.

 

[Isotherm]

The 00z Euro doesn't have a day above 82-83 in NYC through June 19th. I think we'll have a shot at some low 90s around the middle part of next week, but then the ECMWF ensembles park a trough over us/to our northeast through June 25th. Any 90 degree days might be limited to just 1 or 2 this month. If first 90F readings don't occur early/mid next week, most of us could be waiting until almost July, which is pretty impressive.

[uncle W]

with all the Sunny days we have seen since the beginning of May I'm surprised we have not seen a day that hit 90 degrees in the city...since 1950 there have been five years that didn't see a 90 degree day later than this year in either Central Park or Newark Airport...

years like 1958 and 2003 had a big difference in the number of 90 degrees or higher days...

year...KNYC...Newark....90/100+KNYC max...90/100+Newark...max

1954...6/21...6/13.......................17/2....100.................18/2....103

1958...7/01...6/26.........................6/0......93.................21/0......96

1972...7/02...7/02.......................15/0......94.................21/0......95

1982...7/08...6/16.......................11/0......98.................12/1....100

2003...6/24...6/23.........................8/0......94.................20/0......95

[jm1220]

The 00z Euro doesn't have a day above 82-83 in NYC through June 19th. I think we'll have a shot at some low 90s around the middle part of next week, but then the ECMWF ensembles park a trough over us/to our northeast through June 25th. Any 90 degree days might be limited to just 1 or 2 this month. If first 90F readings don't occur early/mid next week, most of us could be waiting until almost July, which is pretty impressive.

It's starting to get to the point where having the trough NE of us is a good thing in terms of keeping seasonal and comfortable weather as opposed to bursts of heat. I'd rather keep the conditions like they were this weekend as opposed to having 95+ and torrid conditions. Of course the warministas will disagree.

[Brian5671]

It's starting to get to the point where having the trough NE of us is a good thing in terms of keeping seasonal and comfortable weather as opposed to bursts of heat. I'd rather keep the conditions like they were this weekend as opposed to having 95+ and torrid conditions. Of course the warministas will disagree.

I'd take a summer's worth of the past weekend's weather no problem-80-85 is perfect.  As long as the trough is far enough northeast we're good...don't want to get on the wrong side of it where we end up with weather like we're having today and the next several days.

[Brian5671]

anyone notice how warm the water is in NJ/DE/MD

-

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html

[uncle W]

developing el nino summers in KNYC...this year June could end up averaging 73.0 or higher puting it in the red...(above average)...this makes the chances for an above average summer greater...

year...June July Aug.. Ave..

1957..74.3 77.7 73.6...75.2

1963..70.9 76.4 72.1...73.1

1965..70.1 74.3 73.2...72.5

1968..69.7 77.3 76.0...74.3

1972..67.9 77.2 75.6...73.6

1976..73.2 74.8 74.3...74.1

1982..68.6 77.9 73.2...73.2

1986..71.6 76.0 73.1...73.6

1991..74.1 77.7 77.1...76.3

1994..75.2 79.4 74.0...76.2

1997..70.9 75.8 73.3...73.3

2002..71.4 78.8 77.7...75.6

2004..71.2 74.5 74.2...73.3

2006..71.0 77.9 75.8...74.9

2009..67.5 72.7 75.7...72.0

average 1980-

2009..71.7 76.8 75.8...74.8

average 1870-

2009..70.9 76.1 74.5...73.8

[SACRUS]

GFS and ECM showing overall higher heights into the east with a building warmer pattern once past this weeks unsettled weather.  As we track heat in this thread we may have the first signal for widespread 90 degree readings in the Jun 15 - Jun 18 timeframe.   Not a super hot pattern but building ridge may peak out with a day or 2 with 90 (+) degree readings. Will keep an eye on this and also begin to get some long range feelers for the 4th of July.

 

 

 

So far the heat has arrived and will linger another day before we cool things back down by Thu and into the weekend.   We'll likely see temps at or below normal much of the period between 6/20 - 6/26.  Looking beyond there, guidance hints that we see heights rise towards the end of the month on/around Jun 27th into the start of July which offers the next chance of heat into the region.

[SACRUS]

So far the heat has arrived and will linger another day before we cool things back down by Thu and into the weekend.   We'll likely see temps at or below normal much of the period between 6/20 - 6/26.  Looking beyond there, guidance hints that we see heights rise towards the end of the month on/around Jun 27th into the start of July which offers the next chance of heat into the region.

 

Highlights of the upcoming period

 

6/28 - 6/29 : Temps slightly above normal temps in the 85 - 90 range

6/30 - 7/2 : Temps above normal potential for first heat- wave for the warmer spots.  Peak of heat wed.

7/3  :  Rain cold front

7/4 - 7/7:   Temps near normal

7/8 - beyond: heights rise ridge builds east, warmer temps and next shot at some 90 degree heat.

 

 

Ridge building in over the region will set the stage for 4 days of warm to hot temps.  Some of the warmer spots may see the seasons first heatwave with temp peaking on wed.  Even the park should break the 90 degree mark (LGA too).   Cold front slowly approaches Thursday and lingers into the 4th but should clear in time for the afternoon.  Temps cool back towards or below normal by 4th of July weekend but it looks mainly dry/warm.  Models hinting that heights rise in on/around 7/8 and into the following weekend.    It will be interesting to see how we progress with heat this week and see if the ridge could penetrate east 7/8 and beyond.

[uncle W]

developing el nino summers in KNYC...this year June could end up averaging 73.0 or higher puting it in the red...(above average)...this makes the chances for an above average summer greater...

year...June July Aug.. Ave..

1957..74.3 77.7 73.6...75.2

1963..70.9 76.4 72.1...73.1

1965..70.1 74.3 73.2...72.5

1968..69.7 77.3 76.0...74.3

1972..67.9 77.2 75.6...73.6

1976..73.2 74.8 74.3...74.1

1982..68.6 77.9 73.2...73.2

1986..71.6 76.0 73.1...73.6

1991..74.1 77.7 77.1...76.3

1994..75.2 79.4 74.0...76.2

1997..70.9 75.8 73.3...73.3

2002..71.4 78.8 77.7...75.6

2004..71.2 74.5 74.2...73.3

2006..71.0 77.9 75.8...74.9

2009..67.5 72.7 75.7...72.0

average 1980-

2009..71.7 76.8 75.8...74.8

average 1870-

2009..70.9 76.1 74.5...73.8

it looks like June will end up averaging about 72.5 in KNYC...This would be above the 1981-2009 30 year average but not by much...

[Allsnow]

Please if u guys could keep me updated on Thursday...I would appreciate it.

[earthlight]

For people that live in the immediate NYC metro area, that is, the area bounded by the following red boundaries:

 

 

Your summer temperatures / highs are probably closer to EWR or LGA than Central Park. One look at the satellite image will tell you why. Central Park is the most green area (or one of) in the 5 boroughs and extreme NE NJ. There might be some spots within NYC where your temps are closer to Central Park b/c of the tree density. But I'd wager that 80% or more of people within the 5 boroughs and NE NJ have high temps closer to Newark/LGA than Central Park.

 

It's a different story for interior NNJ and CNJ. Here in Monmouth County, my high temps are more similar to Central Park, because as would be expected, the rural nature of my area prevents some of the extreme heat. In the summer of 2010, I recorded 38 days with highs of 90F or greater, very close to NYC's 37-38 days I believe, and much lower than Newark's 50+.

 

But for the majority of the population within NE NJ through the 5 boroughs, EWR and LGA more closely represent the highs in the summer season. For CNJ and interior NNJ, Central Park ends up being closer.

 

Great post. Although there is some argument for being farther from the water, I think it speaks volumes that the areas even in Western Union and Essex counties run closer to EWR than MMU despite being much more "green". 

[dbc]

Great post. Although there is some argument for being farther from the water, I think it speaks volumes that the areas even in Western Union and Essex counties run closer to EWR than MMU despite being much more "green". 

While I agree with this and for the most part with what Isotherm is saying, I will add that extreme NE NJ has a microclimate that can't match up with any of the reporting stations all that well. I usually use Teterboro but even it runs warm, not windy enough and, in the winter, too low on snow totals. You could also actually make the argument that Palisades state park is way greener than Central Park and covers a much larger area. Add to that the element of varying cliff elevations of the Palisades and being right on top of the Hudson River and you have a real hard microclimate to pin to a specific reporting station in this area.