SACRUS Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Quick summer cast for 2014. Do we go 5 in a row? After 2010 (record hot Jun - Aug), 2011 (scorching July), 2012 (hot), 2013 (scorcher July) how does 2013 look to shape up? Overall we should ride the plus side of avg and on the above avg side of precip. Main analogs used were 1982, 1986, 2002, 2009 all with a weak nino forming as the main consideration. Like with any forecast we may get an idea of which type of pattern will lock for a while and it wouldn't shock me if it went a bit warmer than forecast. While we wont likely be as hot as 2002 it will likely not be as cool as 2009 as those two years rode the extreme of the spectrum. I believe we are similar to last year as a whole with a better spread between heat and any cool downs Jun - Aug, rather than any one month skewing the averages either way ala 2011, 2013 (July). Potential 5 in a row for 100 heat but lower confidence in that. As in past 4 years the core of the heat or the hottest period against the mean will focus in July but I also suspect we may see an August surge this year. As with most developing nino summers, we should ride the plus side of avg with precip/rainfall and any tropical influences will further enhance that. 90 Degree Days predictions EWR: 23 NYC: 17 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7ENPQzlUpY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 10, 2014 Author Share Posted May 10, 2014 EWR: 14 NYC :12 LGA : 13 JFK : 11 here in the northern mid atlantic - IMO we will be well north of the heat ridge which will only poke into our area for brief periods from early June through late August - we will also have the "ring of fire" visit us form time to time being north of the high pressure ridge with some decent storms followed by cooler air and then in mid August the tropics start to get active with above normal precip here August through September. EWR: 10 NYC : 8 LGA : 8 JFK : 7 Based on the latest JMA, it is showing below average temperature departures for 60% of the Eastern US for JJA. El Ninos produce wetter conditions (ie September 1982) for a large chuck of the US. Mainly at Southern California through Texas and into the Southeast. At times, there are troughs that swing through the NE and we get strong LPs producing wetter conditions for the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. So those of you on this topic, beware because if you are planning to go to the beach it won't be good. This Summer could challenge 2009 in terms of temperatures, but the rainfall won't be overbearing like 2009. A weaker Nino this time around will have lesser effects, so a summer like 2009 will be close, but there may be a few more 90s This Summer Vs. 2009. The central theme for this summer is Cool and Dry/Wet and Hot/Dry with Afternoon Thunderstorms (Possibly Severe). Becoming more and more likely that we will not see our first 90 degree day in the metro until after Memorial Day which is the 26th this year. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr 90 degree days by the month at KNYC...LGA annual totals also... Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals... 1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37....................... 1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8 1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11 1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24 1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30 1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15 1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29 1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13 1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19 1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10 1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27 1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7 1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14 1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9 1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12 1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16 1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16 1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25 1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6 1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15 1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9 1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22 1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9 1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4 1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17 1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13 1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7 1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10 1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14 1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4 1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16 1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22 1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15 1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6 1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31 1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9 1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8 1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9 1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19 1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26 1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17 1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10 1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34 1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9 1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26 1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22 1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23 1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6 1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17 1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11 1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26 2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12 2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17 2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33 2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17 2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7 2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30 2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22 2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23 2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19 2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8 2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48 2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19 2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28 2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17........21 2014..........0............................................................................... four years had 90's in October...1927, 1938, 1939 and 1941... I posted this in the other thread: 90 degree days 1984-2013 Year..EWR....NYC....LGA.....JFK 84...22...10...9...13 85...11....9....8....5 86...22...11...9...8 87...37...22...19..11 88...43...32...26...14 89...27...16...17...9 90...26...12...10...6 91...41...39...26...13 92...22.....9...9......6 93...49...39...26...13 94...39...19...22...7 95...33...29...23...15 96....8.....3.....6....4 97...20...12...17...10 98...21.....8....11....5 99...33...27...26....14 00...16....7.....12.....6 01...22...15...17.....8 02...41...32....35...21 03...20....8...17.....12 04...13...2.....7.......1 05...37...23...30.....17 06...26...8....22......12 07...21..10...23.......7 08...22...12...19......9 09...14....7.....8.......6 10...54....37...48.....32 11...31...20...19.....13 12...33...19....28....16 13...25....17....21....9 8 out of the last 9 summers have had above normal temperatures at LGA. A.png B.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Summer months average temp and precipitation at KNYC...June/July/Aug...Three month period from 6/1 - 8/31decade...ave temp/precip...90+days100+1870's.....73.2.....13.75".....101.....0.....1880's.....72.4.....11.88".......81.....1.....1890's.....73.3.....11.18".....138.....1.....1900's.....73.3.....12.87".....101.....2.....1910's.....72.7.....11.58".....115.....3.....1920's.....72.6.....12.98".....128.....2.....1930's.....74.6.....12.40".....189.....8.....1940's.....74.2.....11.86".....202.....8.....1950's.....74.4.......9.86".....175...12.....1960's.....74.2.....10.54".....181.....4.....1970's.....74.6.....12.61".....183.....3.....1980's.....75.0.....13.03".....195.....2.....1990's.....75.0.....11.90".....197.....8.....2000's.....74.3.....15.66".....123.....1.....2010's.....76.2.....15.01".......93.....5.....1870-2009 ave 73.8.....12.29".....149.....4.....1980-2009 ave 74.8.....13.53".....172.....4.....June......Ave temp...max...min...ave max/min...1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.51890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.41900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.71910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.11920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.01930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.41940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.11950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.91960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.71970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.01980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.61990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.62000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.52010's.....72.7.......95.....51.....93.5.....54.31870/1880-2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.11980-2009 ave 71.7.......98.....47.....92.3.....52.6July........................................................1870's.....75.7.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....74.6.......99.....54.....92.6.....59.21890's.....74.7.....100.....55.....95.1.....58.11900's.....76.1.....100.....56.....94.4.....60.01910's.....75.4.....100.....56.....96.1.....59.21920's.....74.7.....100.....54.....94.7.....57.51930's.....76.7.....106.....54.....97.9.....59.21940's.....76.7.....102.....52.....96.0.....58.61950's.....77.1.....101.....57.....96.3.....60.51960's.....76.0.....103.....54.....96.1.....59.31970's.....76.8.....104.....53.....95.0.....58.71980's.....77.4.....102.....53.....96.5.....59.21990's.....77.5.....102.....57.....97.1.....61.12000's.....75.6.......97.....56.....92.6.....60.52010's.....80.0.....104.....61...101.3.....62.31870/1880-2009 ave 76.1.....106.....52.....95.4.....59.31980-2009 ave 76.8.....102.....53.....95.4.....60.3August..........................................................1870's.....73.7.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....72.0.......96.....50.....90.6.....54.21890's.....74.2.......98.....52.....92.8.....56.91900's.....73.8.......96.....54.....91.8.....58.11910's.....73.5.....104.....51.....93.8.....56.81920's.....73.0.......99.....51.....92.8.....55.31930's.....75.5.....100.....52.....94.9.....58.51940's.....74.5.....103.....52.....95.6.....55.41950's.....75.0.....100.....54.....93.4.....57.91960's.....74.6.......94.....50.....91.8.....56.21970's.....76.0.......98.....50.....94.2.....57.11980's.....75.9.......99.....50.....93.7.....57.21990's.....75.5.......98.....57.....93.3.....59.42000's.....75.9.....103.....56.....94.2.....60.02010's.....76.0.......96.....59.....92.8.....60.01870/1880-2009 ave 74.5.....104.....50.....93.3.....57.21980-2009 ave 75.8.....103.....50.....93.7.....58.9Hottest................Coolest...........Wettest.............Driest77.8 in 2010.....69.3 in 1903.....25.23" in 2011.....4.31" in 196677.3 in 1966.....69.9 in 1927.....22.75" in 1975.....4.36" in 189477.1 in 2005.....70.5 in 1902.....22.36" in 1989.....4.58" in 192976.9 in 1993.....70.9 in 1881.....21.39" in 2009.....4.97" in 199976.9 in 1983.....71.0 in 1886.....20.79" in 2006.....5.33" in 196576.9 in 1949.....71.2 in 1915.....20.64" in 2007.....6.19" in 195776.7 in 1999.....71.3 in 1869.....20.50" in 1928.....6.87" in 188276.6 in 1988.....71.4 in 1889.....20.43" in 1903.....6.88" in 191276.6 in 1980.....71.4 in 1888.....20.01" in 1927.....6.93" in 197076.5 in 1955.....71.4 in 1874.....19.88" in 2003.....7.01" in 192376.5 in 1944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Though 2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013 were all above average for the mean temp at KNYC for the three month period June, July, & August...that mean has declined just a bit every year after the exceptional heat of Summer 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11, 2014 Author Share Posted May 11, 2014 Though 2010, 2011, 2012, & 2013 were all above average for the mean temp at KNYC for the three month period June, July, & August...that mean has declined just a bit every year after the exceptional heat of Summer 2010. Yeah there was a major contrast last year from July to August. I will say this though, last July was hotter than 2012 - June about the same. This year I think is more normal but a prolonged period of above normal for 2 weeks wouldn't surprise me. One thing is almost certain, it will more than likely be above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Yeah there was a major contrast last year from July to August. I will say this though, last July was hotter than 2012 - June about the same. This year I think is more normal but a prolonged period of above normal for 2 weeks wouldn't surprise me. One thing is almost certain, it will more than likely be above normal precip. I'm not much of a long range forecaster...I leave that to people who know what they're doing...lot of hot summers the last 30 years...so just by playing the odds you would probably have to go above normal again...but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 last year had a 30 day period that averaged 81.7 at KNYC from 6/24 to 7/23...one of the warmest on record...2000 tied the alltime record with 1888 for the lowest warmest 30 day period on record... Hottest 30 day periods...82.5 in 198081.9 in 187681.9 in 199981.8 in 200581.8 in 201081.7 in 201381.6 in 195581.2 in 199381.1 in 199581.1 in 198881.0 in 196681.0 in 201180.9 in 1983Coolest...72.7 in 200074.4 in 199274.8 in 200474.9 in 199675.0 in 196075.0 in 195075.1 in 195675.5 in 194575.6 in 196275.7 in 1965decade average since 1930...1930's 78.31940's 77.71950's 78.01960's 77.01970's 77.81980's 78.71990's 78.62000's 77.42010's 81.01930- 2000.. 77.9 2012...79.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Well, we're coming off the back of 4 below-average months, and the immediate forecast shows us being stuck in the 60s for most of next week. After tomorrow, we might be in a below average pattern for the rest of the month. We might not hit 80 again until June. And if this pattern remains intact for 3 weeks, we could very easily finish below average for the 5th month in a row. That may be a sign of what's to come over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Well we are due for a cooler than normal summer after such a hot streak for multiple years. The El Niño also makes this more likely, but I'm still going with slightly above as that's been the theme the past 9 out of 10 summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Hottest weeks and hot periods...high..low mean max ..dates98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 199398.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 197798.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 195395.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 189695.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 201195.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 198896.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 194496.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 195595.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 200194.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 198097.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 199195.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 197394.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 198194.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 201095.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955Hot periods...6/21-7/14 1966...19 of 24 days 90 or higher...7/04-7/20 1993...14 of 17 days 90 or higher...7/29-8/19 2002...17 of 22 days 90 or higher...7/23-8/17 1944...19 of 26 days 90 or higher...7/12-7/23 1952...11 of 12 days 90 or higher...9/23-9/04 1953...12 of 12 days 90 or higher...7/27-8/13 1896...14 of 18 days 90 or higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Quick summer cast for 2014. Do we go 5 in a row? ***** Potential 5 in a row for 100 heat but lower confidence in that. Only one problem; we didn't top 100 last summer and in 2012 we only touched it, not topped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Only one problem; we didn't top 100 last summer and in 2012 we only touched it, not topped it. Which site? Newark and many other spots have reaches or exceeded 100F in each of 2010,11,12, 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Which site? Newark and many other spots have reaches or exceeded 100F in each of 2010,11,12, 13 I was using KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 I was using KNYC. The park has been consistently lower than LGA/EWR and other places in NYC. So NYC had several sites including LGA that reached 100 last year and exceeded it in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 I was using KNYC.You have to keep in mind that KNYC has excessive vegetative overgrowth keeping the area around the station cooler than the actual temperature of the surrounding area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 ^^^ we've been explaining this for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 If KNYC has a cool bias due to growth then KLGA, KEWR and KJFK all have warm biases due to being located in concrete jungles. The KEWR sensor is literally right between a runway and the NJ Turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 If KNYC has a cool bias due to growth then KLGA, KEWR and KJFK all have warm biases due to being located in concrete jungles. The KEWR sensor is literally right between a runway and the NJ Turnpike. The concrete jungle is more representative of the temperatures most people experience in the NY-NJ Metro rather than under heavy vegetation in a park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 The concrete jungle is more representative of the temperatures most people experience in the NY-NJ Metro rather than under the shade in a park. I don't agree with that at all. Outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn plenty of vegetation exists. Newark isn't a great representation of the state of New Jersey either. NJ is mostly a rural state with pockets of heavy population density surrounding NYC and Philadelphia. For the most part, the less populated areas here are in red and the most populated areas are in blue. The exception would be the Somerset/Middlesex County area which is far less populated than the areas closer to the big cities yet voted Democrat in the last election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 I don't agree with that at all. Outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn plenty of vegetation exists. Newark isn't a great representation of the state of New Jersey either. NJ is mostly a rural state with pockets of heavy population density surrounding NYC and Philadelphia. So, yes, it does represent what most of the population experiences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 I don't agree with that at all. Outside of Manhattan and Brooklyn plenty of vegetation exists. Newark isn't a great representation of the state of New Jersey either. NJ is mostly a rural state with pockets of heavy population density surrounding NYC and Philadelphia. For the most part, the less populated areas here are in red and the most populated areas are in blue. The exception would be the Somerset/Middlesex County area which is far less populated than the areas closer to the big cities yet voted Democrat in the last election. You aren't even located in the metro area so why do you try to compare it to the urbanized NE NJ and NYC. Take a look at a satellite photo of the area and you will see the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 So, yes, it does represent what most of the population experiences. Population wise? Maybe so, area wise? Not so much. You make it sound like nobody here lives outside of the major populated areas. This isn't Nebraska where you go five miles outside of town and population drops down to nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 If KNYC has a cool bias due to growth then KLGA, KEWR and KJFK all have warm biases due to being located in concrete jungles. The KEWR sensor is literally right between a runway and the NJ Turnpike. The heat and readings at EWR have been running closer to other nearby stations such as Statend Island, CNJ, NNJ etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Population wise? Maybe so, area wise? Not so much. You make it sound like nobody here lives outside of the major populated areas. This isn't Nebraska where you go five miles outside of town and population drops down to nil. We are discussing weather. Of course it matters more to the population than to empty areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 You aren't even located in the metro area so why do you try to compare it to the urbanized NE NJ and NYC. Who says that I don't live in the metro area? Not all of NE NJ is urbanized either. Certainly most of Passaic County isn't urbanized and a majority of Bergen County isn't urbanized either. Bergan County is one of the most populated in the state. We've been through this 1000000 times. The NYC metro area isn't just comprised of the five boroughs and the immediate surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 We are discussing weather. Of course it matters more to the population than to empty areas. So where are these empty areas that you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 So where are these empty areas that you speak of? Seriously, are you being dense on purpose? Newark is representative of what most people in this subforum experience, because thats where most people live. The "area" doesnt matter, and introducing it into an argument makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Seriously, are you being dense on purpose? Newark is representative of what most people in this subforum experience, because thats where most people live. The "area" doesnt matter, and introducing it into an argument makes zero sense. A majority of posters in this sub forum do not live in a city proper. Most people instead live in the suburbs. And for the most part once you get fifteen miles or so outside of NYC the population density goes way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 A majority of posters in this sub forum do not live in a city proper. Most people instead live in the suburbs. And for the most part once you get fifteen miles or so outside of NYC the population density goes way down. We are discussing newark, not nyc. And uhh? You know new jersey is the most densely populated state, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Where are all the Long Island posters hiding. Suddenly Long Island is part of the concrete jungle also? What about Monmouth County posters? Yeah, Monmouth County is really comparable to Newark....or not. This is the misconception by people from NY that assume NJ consists of the five miles of the Turnpike that runs from Newark to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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