May 10-14 Severe Weather

[geddyweather]

Still no slight risk from the SPC...I guess primarily due to a lack of a well-defined forcing mechanism 

 

Likely so, they mentioned that in their current outlook. Still, this one seems a little more enthusiastic then the previous ones...

...LOWER MI TO OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...   DAYTIME HEATING TO THE E OF A LARGELY POST-FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD   COUPLED WITH A MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING   1000-2000 J/KG. AND WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN   MINIMAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...LOW-LEVEL   CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT   AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS   CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF   STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER   TROUGH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED BANDS OR CLUSTERS   OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE   HAIL.

[hm8]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN LOWER MI/WRN OH/MUCH OF INDIANA AND
ADJACENT NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 131637Z - 131830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES.
THOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER CELLS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING
IN A BAND FROM SRN LOWER MI SSWWD INTO SWRN INDIANA...ALONG THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/STORMS...AS A
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE WARM SECTOR PERMITS CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING
OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/.

THOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
INCREASES IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHILE MID-LEVEL WIND VECTORS REMAIN ALIGNED
ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE BAND. AS SUCH...SOMEWHAT
WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE EWD
PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION OFF THE FRONT. THUS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK EXPECTED...WW WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNNECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/13/2014

[hm8]

To be fair, we didn't have any mesoscale discussion issued before a Severe T'Storm Watch was issued yesterday (which, in hindsight, should have probably been a Tornado Watch).

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0583.html ?

[Powerball]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0583.html ?

 

Oops, my bad. 

 

It all happened pretty fast (I remember seeing this one last)...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0582.html

 

Regardless, the decision to issue a Watch is ultimately at the discretion of the local WFO. If radar and warning trends support a Watch, then we'll get one. 

[geddyweather]

Speaking of, first T-Storm warning in central indiana:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NOBLECOUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EDT...AT 1246 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTHWEBSTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  LIGONIER AROUND 1255 PM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE COSPERVILLE.

[snowlover2]

New day 2 somewhat interesting. Slight risk expanded north some and they considered higher probs for sw OH/se IN/N KY which includes a tornado threat.

 

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
OH VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODULATIONS TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
ENCOURAGE THE AMPLIFICATION AND EWD/ENEWD PROGRESSION OF A
LOWER-LATITUDE IMPULSE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND SWRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT ATTENDANT TO A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET STREAK E OF THE LATTER PERTURBATION WILL
ENHANCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY WITH THE ENSUING SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPING NNEWD TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ALONG A FORMERLY STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE RELATED
SFC FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...WHILE A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PROMOTES POLEWARD FLUXES OF WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE
E/NE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY ESTABLISH A WARM FRONT E
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL RETREAT NWD OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G.
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS -- WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
NNEWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY E OF THE SFC FRONT.
GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AREAS OF ANTECEDENT
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...WILL LARGELY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL BOOST TO
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
CAPPING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY/INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS/ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF THE FRONT. WHILE
THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK WILL LIKELY RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
PRESENCE OF 35-50-KT H5 SSWLYS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
OVER THE WARM SECTOR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
WATER LOADING AND MODESTLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
AIDED BY 30-40 KT H7 FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN FOR SVR STORMS -- INCLUDING POSSIBLE
TORNADOES -- WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FROM NRN KY AND SERN INDIANA INTO SW AND CNTRL
OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC CYCLONE
WHERE A 30-45-KT H85 JET WILL CONCENTRATE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
MESOVORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...COULD EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE SVR RISK. ANY SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH THE
NWD-RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE -- I.E. A FOCUSED AREA OF BACKED
SFC WINDS YIELDING 150-200 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH -- WILL POSE THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THIS RISK OWING TO /1/ THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CONVECTION TO
HINDER BUOYANCY...AND /2/ THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OUT OF PHASE WITH THE MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING
OF THE LLJ. AS SUCH...HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 05/13/2014

 

[hm8]

Despite ample instability (~2500 SBCAPE) it looks like shear and forcing will remain too low for this line to become severe. It slowly becoming more organized and velocity returns are increasing but I expect any severe reports to be pretty isolated.

 

EDIT: Awful last minute call

[Chinook]

DTX composite reflectivity shows a high reflectivity around Fenton/Holly MI. Perhaps an isolated wind or hail report will be there.

[on_wx]

5 counties in SEMI now under severe thunderstorm warnigs

[nwohweather]

Despite ample instability (~2500 SBCAPE) it looks like shear and forcing will remain too low for this line to become severe. It slowly becoming more organized and velocity returns are increasing but I expect any severe reports to be pretty isolated.

Haha fail

[geddyweather]

Slight risk added for a small area of eastern MI and northern OH, around Lake Erie.

[Chinook]

Wind report: 3-inch tree limbs down at Ann Arbor MI. Hopefully you guys survived that terrible ordeal.

[hm8]

Wind report: 3-inch tree limbs down at Ann Arbor MI. Hopefully you guys survived that terrible ordeal.

Trash cans blown over everywhere

[snowlover2]

Slight risk area added to SEMI/N OH on new day 1.

[Chinook]

SPC mesoanalysis showing 3500 J/kg of CAPE in Ontario. Just a heads up for you Ontario posters.

[geddyweather]

Storms over by Lambertsville, MI look pretty decent, might get a T-storm warning that direction later. Also, another cluster of cells down by Muncie, IN tapping into higher CAPE values (2000j/kg) in that area pushing into NW OH.

[Stebo]

KDTW 131919Z 22016G50KT 3SM +TSRA SCT045 BKN060CB OVC180 25/19 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 20050/1916 TWR VIS 4 TSB12RAB12 OCNL LTGIC ALQDS AND OHD TS ALQDS AND OHD MOV NE P0000 PNO $
KDTW 131914Z 19021G28KT 1SM +TSRA SCT045 BKN060CB OVC180 29/18 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 18028/1910 TWR VIS 4 TSB12RAB12 PRESRR OCNL LTGIC S-NW TS S-NW MOV NE P0000 RVRNO
KDTW 131912Z 19021G28KT 4SM TSRA SCT045 BKN060CB OVC180 29/18 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 18028/1910 TSB12RAB12 OCNL LTGIC S-NW TS S-NW MOV NE P0000

KDTW 131853Z COR 17014G24KT 10SM SCT045 BKN060 BKN220 31/19 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 18026/1839 SLP120 CB DSNT S-NW MOV NE T03060194

 

 

 

That escalated quickly... 50kt gust is legit especially for the lead cell and not the line itself.

[geddyweather]

hmmmm, I'll have to watch out for this one. Not far from where this will pass...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...  WESTERN VAN WERT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...* UNTIL 415 PM EDT* AT 325 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  EXTENDING FROM DECATUR TO MONROE TO GENEVA...AND MOVING  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RADAR HAS DETECTED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH  THESE STORMS.   HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  DECATUR...VAN WERT...CONVOY...OHIO CITY...MONMOUTH...SALEM...  PLEASANT MILLS...RIVARE...WILLSHIRE...WREN...MIDDLEBURY...SCHUMM...  GLENMORE...ABANAKA AND DULL.

[geddyweather]

Wow, two tight little circulations there. TOR warning soon?

[Powerball]

Huge bust on the SPC and DTX's part.

 

Hopefully the people with outdoor plans had paid attention to the forecast...

[Hoosier]

 

Huge bust on the SPC and DTX's part.

 

Hopefully the people with outdoor plans had paid attention to the forecast...

 

 

 

Not really.  I mean I'm not sure what DTX was saying but there's only been a handful of severe reports so far.

[andyhb]

Some things never change. 

[Powerball]

Not really.  I mean I'm not sure what DTX was saying but there's only been a handful of severe reports so far.

 

I meant they could have done a better job with the watches/warnings before the storms got here

 

I understand what their reservations were, but the potential was still there with the very moist/unstable atmosphere and the low level CAPE.

[OHweather]

CLE has thus far confirmed one tornado from last night, just southwest of Cleveland:

UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

404 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LORAIN COUNTY OHIO...

LOCATION...EATON TOWNSHIP

DATE...MAY 12 2014

ESTIMATED TIME...7:45 PM TO 7:50 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1

ESTIMATED WIND SPEED...86 MPH

MAX PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS WIDE

PATH LENGTH...1.02 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON 41.347377/-82.033229

ENDING LAT/LON 41.335787/-82.019364

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT

TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN EATON TOWNSHIP ON BUTTERNUT RIDGE

ROAD AND TRACKED SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY FARMLAND FOR A LITTLE OVER

A MILE AND CROSSED RT 83 AND LIFTED NORTH OF COOLEY ROAD. THE DAMAGE

WAS 30 TO 100 YARDS IN WIDTH. DAMAGE CONSISTED MAINLY OF DOWNED

TREES AND SEVERAL BUILDINGS LOST SECTIONS OF ROOFING. MAXIMUM WINDS

WERE ESTIMATED AT 86 MPH.

[dmc76]

Borderline non event... but my standards is high after amazing start to the severe year.

[hm8]

We look to have gotten the worse of it here in AA.

 

Some pics from AA news

 

 

 

 

[Chinook]

those houses in the 2nd picture seemed lucky- the tree fell on the driveway

 

Toledo Express Airport had 43 knot peak wind gust.

 

KTOL 131949Z 27020G32KT 1 1/4SM VCTS +RA ... PK WND 26043/1915

[snowlover2]

ILN AFD

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT CROSSING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING FROM THE WESTERN LAKE ERIE SHORE
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WILL PUSH EAST LATE TODAY. THIS LINE
BREAKS UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RICHMOND INDIANA AND SOUTHWARDS TO BE
MORE ISOLATED AND MUCH LESS LINEAR IN NATURE. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LINE WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A GUST FRONT
PUSHING EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST INDIANA MAY SPARK A STORM OR TWO
BUT THE FOCUS THIS EVENING IS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS
OVER 40KT ARE FOUND IN THE STRONGER CORES. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DROPS TO NIL IN THE SHOWERS
BEHIND IT. ISOLATED STORM SOUTH OF KILN AND WHAT FEW ARE OVER KY
AND SOUTHERN IN WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN.

CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE AFTER INITIAL SHOT THIS LATE
AFTERNOON NORTH OF DAYTON. STORM CHANCE WILL RAMP BACK UP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM AIR STARTS POOLING OVER
INDIANA AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SWODY2 PRODUCT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE
TELLING IN THE OVERALL EXPECTATION OF SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW.
AN INITIAL SURFACE WAVE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDE THIS FEATURE...AND IF CLOUD COVER HAMPERS
TEMPERATURE RISES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE. THE LOW ITSELF MAY OR MAY NOT BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE
AND IS BEST SEEN ON THE FINER RESOLUTION NAM AND AT LEAST IMPLIED
BY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. THE CIRCULATION IN THE WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES AND A NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOME STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING OR DEVELOPING TOMORROW
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE CORES ALOFT...CONTAINING HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN...AND STRONG WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE. WITH THE LOWER AND MID
LEVEL WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.

AFTER INITIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING PLAYING A LARGE PART...THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES LATER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
WILL BE FOUND ALONG WITH STRONG H7 HEIGHT FALLS BY 0Z FRI.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MUTED WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. IF CLOUD COVER CAN BREAK
OUT...READINGS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEG HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PLEASANT IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP 60 IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NOT PUSH TO 70 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

[geddyweather]

Had a classic shelf cloud here outside of Columbus Grove, OH, along with some 35-40mph winds and heavy rain (with a couple hailstones in the mix). No lightning at all with these

[Stebo]

Man that tree smoked that house.

 

 

Huge bust on the SPC and DTX's part.

 

Hopefully the people with outdoor plans had paid attention to the forecast...

 

DTX did fine, their morning update was pretty strongly worded and ended up being right. SPC probably could have had a watch but the warnings covered the storms nicely.