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May 10-14 Severe Weather


snowlover2

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This was quite an evening in Northern Ohio. Nothing happened in my immediate vicinity, just a ton of lightning and some street flooding. I saw some funnel cloud pictures on the news, but no confirmed touchdowns yet. We'll see. Most of the warnings were "marginal", but there were definitely a lot of rotating storms tonight. This was rather unexpected, although the meso-analysis showed that the warm front really maximized shear across lower MI southeast into northern OH.

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Severe weather chances look pretty good again later today.

 

(at least here)

The Day 1 (which should be updated soon) has 2/5/5 severe probs in the Detroit area as well as much of IN/OH/part KY today:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Tomorrow's Day 2 has the slight risk making it up to Cincy and Columbus:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

And FWIW eastern OH is presently in the Day 3 "See Text" area for Thursday:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

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The cold front is currently over western IN. Cape is climbing back into the 500-1000j/kg range over NW OH, northern and central IN, and small parts of southern MI. Wind shear is looking better today as well, but there is still a lot of inhibition that needs to be overcome to get some stuff going. Looks like forcing and other ingredients are lacking as well. We'll see if anything can get started...

post-12193-0-52331000-1399988442_thumb.j

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Detroit's update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.UPDATE...

RECENT PRESENTATION OF WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY AND TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS LEAVE EXPECTATIONS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR A WINDOW FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...SOME LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF
NEARLY FULL INSOLATION SOUTHEAST OF AN OWOSSO TO BAD AXE LINE
NETTING A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. UPDATE ALREADY
OUT TO ADDRESS THIS WITH READINGS NOW EXPECTED TO LAND SOLIDLY IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR. MODIFIED PARCEL
TAKEN WITH A T/TD OF 83/67 YIELDS SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1500-1800 J/KG BY 18-20Z. UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF THIS MODIFYING
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY LOOKING SUPPORTIVE OF
MORE SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. RECENT RUC ANALYSIS PAIRED WITH
WATER VAPOR AND LATEST HI RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL TEND TO ANCHOR ON SOME COMBINATION OF AN INBOUND
REMNANT MCV/PERTURBATION NOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ARKANSAS/
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND A LEAD PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH
MAY BE HELPING SUSTAIN THE LIGHT RETURNS AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CURRENTLY STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI INTO THE TRI-CITIES
AT THE MOMENT. THE DEEP LAYER LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD
WILL BE IMPROVING WITH TIME...A NOTED UPTICK WITHIN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON SEEMINGLY SUPPLYING ADEQUATE ENOUGH SHEAR
TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THIS MODULATING PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. THIS CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD AT THE VERY LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
FOR A GREATER COVERAGE IN LIGHT OF ERODING CONCERNS OVER POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POTENTIAL ISSUE
GIVEN THE ELEVATED PWAT VALUES...PARTICULARLY HEADING INTO THE
EVENING AS THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SLOPE
SLOWS WITH TIME.

 

 

I completely agree with their update, furthermore it won't take much more insulation to get to 83/67 considering we are 80/67 right now at 11AM and we are mostly sunny still.

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Detroit's update

 

I completely agree with their update, furthermore it won't take much more insulation to get to 83/67 considering we are 80/67 right now at 11AM and we are mostly sunny still.

 

850mb temps were the RUC mesoanalysis are 17*C celsius.

 

That would even support temps in the upper 80s if we can keep full insolation through mid afternoon.

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Looks like the severe cells will do the split here.  Just very difficult to get legit severe criteria conditions in Milwaukee County itself.  Of the average six to eight severe warnings every year here, maybe one actually verifies, though I guess that's not unusual when most are radar indicated.

 

 

I guess you're done for the year then.  :(

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  831 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    0748 PM     HAIL             4 NW MILWAUKEE          43.07N 87.97W   05/12/2014  M2.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER                 AT INTERSECTION OF 56TH AND NASH ST.  
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I guess you're done for the year then.  :(

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  831 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    0748 PM     HAIL             4 NW MILWAUKEE          43.07N 87.97W   05/12/2014  M2.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER                 AT INTERSECTION OF 56TH AND NASH ST.  

 

lol.

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I don't remember the last time I've seen hail. I've never even seen Golf Ball-sized hail.

 

And I most certainly haven't seen a severe t'storm yet this season.

 

But I guess everyone has their own standards like I do for Winter Storms.

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