wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Unexpected to have a watch out so early, the sub severe line heading into Madison does look impressive, but not sure we've built up enough instability to warrant a watch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Severe warning issued for the line segment in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Unexpected to have a watch out so early, the sub severe line heading into Madison does look impressive, but not sure we've built up enough instability to warrant a watch yet. Now warned and, you have plenty of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 can't wait to read wisconsinwx's complaints after the warned line moves through his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Now warned and, you have plenty of instability. Yeah, I noticed that. I thought they might have put the watch out in advance of the warning. Just a couple hours ago it was cool with a wind still off the lake, but it doesn't take much to get unstable here I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 can't wait to read wisconsinwx's complaints after the warned line moves through his backyard haha, no complaints here unless it noticeably weakens, contrary to what SPC is expecting. Two rounds of thunderstorms in the last 24 hours, which met my expectations of thunderstorm activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Jeez already 75/68 at MKE, SBCABE already exceeding 3000J/kg, not bad fro 11AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Jeez already 75/68 at MKE, SBCABE already exceeding 3000J/kg, not bad fro 11AM. Yeah instability recovery rates have been impressive Current convection/debris over MI isn't too pretty looking but given upstream recovery rates I wouldn't give up hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 line looking really healthy with a nice instability feed naso sure about it building south into the IL portions of the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 line looking really healthy with a nice instability feed naso sure about it building south into the IL portions of the watch SPC expected more discrete cells to form south of this main line in N Illinois, hence why they included much of that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 That kink just east of Madison and along and just south of I94 is probably where the fiercest winds are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1056 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014 DISCUSSION 1056 AM CDT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 5 PM THAT COVERS BASICALLY THE INTERSTATE 88 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD. THIS INCLUDES ROCKFORD AND THE CITY OF CHICAGO. THE REALLY CHALLENGING FORECAST OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION CONTINUES WITH A COUPLE REGIONAL COMPLEXES OF STORMS PROPAGATING EASTWARD AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR. THE NORTHERN ONE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IS THE MORE ROBUST ONE AND FEEDING ON BETTER UPPER AND MID-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE STORMS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO THESE COMPLEXES DO NOT INDICATE A RAPID WIND THREAT DEVELOPING FROM THESE...HOWEVER THE OVERALL CAPE/SHEAR SPECTRUM IS POTENTIALLY FAVORING SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RAOBS AT DVN AND ILX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR FORECAST EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INDICATED INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN THE MIXED LAYER...AND POTENTIALLY TOPPING 3500 J/KG. AS THINNING OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THIS HIGH DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE REALIZED. WHILE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE COMPLEXES AS IT RELATES TO OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BELIEVED TO BE PROBABLE FROM SURFACE AND/OR ELEVATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CERTAINLY VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SO IT WAS THOUGHT BEST TO INCLUDE FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH MULTI- CELL CLUSTERS THE FAVORED MODE. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 That rain from earlier seems to have also jacked up the humidity. It is sunny here now and feels like a jungle out with the dew here closing in on 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 81/70 at mdw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 SBCAPE climbing to 3000-3500j/kg in central Indiana, with MLCAPE not far behind at 2000-2500j/kg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Atmosphere is totally juiced outside. 80/69° here in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Atmosphere is totally juiced outside. 80/69° here in Racine. looking increasingly likely to be wasted outside residual instability for the dying overnight complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Stuff starting to fire along the cold front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. New severe thunderstorm watch for that area, as well as for parts of western Illinois. Little cells starting to get going in central Indiana, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 looking increasingly likely to be wasted outside residual instability for the dying overnight complex The storms up this way are missing where I am by about 8 miles or so. Quite dark though on the northern horizon. Outflow boundary about to sweep through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 According to LOT, no current plans to survey yesterday's possible tornado near Rensselaer. Been checking the net for more info, pics/videos and haven't found much yet. I tend to buy the report though given that there was a couplet in the area and apparently multiple call-ins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 GRR just issued a warning for almost half of their CWA BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI243 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN IONIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN... ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... KENT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... MECOSTA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... MONTCALM COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... MUSKEGON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... NEWAYGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... OCEANA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... OTTAWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 345 PM EDT* AT 239 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELBRIDGE TO 61 MILES WEST OF HOFFMASTER STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 GRR just issued a warning for almost half of their CWA BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 243 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN IONIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN... ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... KENT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... MECOSTA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... MONTCALM COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN... MUSKEGON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... NEWAYGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... OCEANA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN... OTTAWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 239 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELBRIDGE TO 61 MILES WEST OF HOFFMASTER STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 2nd largest in WFO history http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/top10.phtml?wfo=ALL&limit=TOSV&tlimit=all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Nice, btw I would be watching that severe storm out near Stockbridge, it is starting to develop a hook and the warm front is in the area with good low level shear. If it continues to develop I wouldn't be shocked if it went tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 I think that cell might right the boundary and right turn, if it does it would probably take a similar track to the Dexter storm. You can see the warm front very clearly, there will be a good localization of shear in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 And there is the TW BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI318 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... NORTHERN WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 415 PM EDT* AT 313 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREGORY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... HELL AROUND 325 PM EDT. PINCKNEY STATE RECREATION AREA AND PINCKNEY AROUND 330 PM EDT. HUDSON MILLS AND HUDSON MILLS METROPARK AROUND 335 PM EDT. DEXTER AROUND 340 PM EDT. LAKELAND AROUND 345 PM EDT. HAMBURG AND DELHI MILLS AROUND 350 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Ut oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Sirens going off in Howell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Good call dude. If it's anything the Dexter storm we're gonna see a hard hard right before it eventually gets disrupted by the other storms running into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Interested to see how this storm fares once it interacts with the storm behind it. That's starting to happen right now. Rotation looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 There's an outflow boundary just north of the IL/WI border, might serve as a focal point for development in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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