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May 10-14 Severe Weather


snowlover2

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Severe T-storm just blew up near RFD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC007-111-201-112100-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0006.140511T1954Z-140511T2100Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL254 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 400 PM CDT* AT 252 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WINNEBAGO...  AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  ROCKFORD...MACHESNEY PARK...LOVES PARK...ROCKTON...SOUTH BELOIT...  ROSCOE...POPLAR GROVE AND CAPRON.OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...ROCK CUT STATE PARK...ROCK VALLEY COLLEGE...ROCKFORD RIVERHAWKSBASEBALL...ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY...



			
		
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DTX hitting the severe protetial pretty hard tomorrow

 

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ENSUE, LARGELY
COINCIDENT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGE OF 0-3KM EHI MAX, DEPENDING ON THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT STRONG
ADVECTION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MLCAPES TO REACH AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES
ARE A BIT DECEPTIVE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KNOTS IS NOT
EXACTLY SPECTACULAR, AND PROFILES ESSENTIALLY LACK ANY RESPECTABLE
SHEAR ABOVE THE LOWEST 2KM, SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY LONGER-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, THE CONCENTRATION OF
SHEAR WITHIN THE MODERATELY VEERED SFC-2KM LAYER ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL MLCAPE VALUES OF ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL
PRESENT A WELL-DEFINED RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. POTENTIAL FOR STRETCHING OF VERTICAL VORTICITY
WITHIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS WOULD ONLY BE AIDED BY THE LATE EVENING
TIMING AS THE EARLY STAGES OF NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION JUST BEGIN TO
SET IN. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO LOCAL
INCREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER SRH INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH
LOOKS TO LIE BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69. AS NOTED, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
NOT BE TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT
A THREAT FOR 1" HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE 1000+ J/KG OF MODERATE
DENSITY CAPE NONETHELESS. WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS MEAN THAT
ANY WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE DIABATICALLY DRIVEN, WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS EFFECTIVELY
RELEGATES THE SEVERE WIND THREAT TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM.

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Warning out in Iowa. Getting a hook. Could be dropping golf balls.

 

 

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
  NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
  SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 330 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT PLAIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30
  MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

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DTX hitting the severe protetial pretty hard tomorrow

 

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ENSUE, LARGELY

COINCIDENT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGE OF 0-3KM EHI MAX, DEPENDING ON THE

DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT STRONG

ADVECTION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE CWA SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR MLCAPES TO REACH AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES

ARE A BIT DECEPTIVE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KNOTS IS NOT

EXACTLY SPECTACULAR, AND PROFILES ESSENTIALLY LACK ANY RESPECTABLE

SHEAR ABOVE THE LOWEST 2KM, SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR

ANY LONGER-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, THE CONCENTRATION OF

SHEAR WITHIN THE MODERATELY VEERED SFC-2KM LAYER ALONG WITH

POTENTIAL MLCAPE VALUES OF ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL

PRESENT A WELL-DEFINED RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH

VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. POTENTIAL FOR STRETCHING OF VERTICAL VORTICITY

WITHIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS WOULD ONLY BE AIDED BY THE LATE EVENING

TIMING AS THE EARLY STAGES OF NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION JUST BEGIN TO

SET IN. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO LOCAL

INCREASES IN BOUNDARY LAYER SRH INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH

LOOKS TO LIE BETWEEN M-59 AND I-69. AS NOTED, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL

NOT BE TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT

A THREAT FOR 1" HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE 1000+ J/KG OF MODERATE

DENSITY CAPE NONETHELESS. WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS MEAN THAT

ANY WIND THREAT WILL NEED TO BE DIABATICALLY DRIVEN, WHICH WILL BE

DIFFICULT GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS EFFECTIVELY

RELEGATES THE SEVERE WIND THREAT TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM.

 

Pretty bullish AFD from Detroit, I certainly agree with what they are seeing.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  

532 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

CENTRAL RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  

 

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT  

 

* AT 528 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

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It'll be interesting to see how that MCV in Iowa evolves with the convection redeveloping across IL/WI.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the storms get as far east as here late this evening, based on radar trends.

 

Yes and if it does come through late this evening that means less or no crapvection all night to completely beat up the atmosphere.

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Yes and if it does come through late this evening that means less or no crapvection all night to completely beat up the atmosphere.

 

Meh, as long as we're getting decent heating by 10am-ish and another MCV tracks through late in the day, we should be fine. 

 

The models still show a decent surge of mid-level dry air for the afternoon hours tomorrow, which remains a plus.

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Meh, as long as we're getting decent heating by 10am-ish and another MCV tracks through late in the day, we should be fine. 

 

The models still show a decent surge of mid-level dry air for the afternoon hours tomorrow, which remains a plus.

 

Yeah the outlook is good and plus side for myself, I am 8a-4p tomorrow so if anything does go down I have all evening to spot locally :)

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I see Waukegan at 68/53, not exactly Tropical, likely will die out before it gets to shore.

 

 

Perhaps, but that cooler/drier airmass is not extending very far inland so there may not be enough time.

 

Man, monster cell out in Nebraska.  Makes our stuff look like child's play.

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I see Waukegan at 68/53, not exactly Tropical, likely will die out before it gets to shore.

 

Lake breeze isn't really doing much here (wind isn't ripping in at all). The shallow marine layer won't probably do anything to the storms heading in until they get over the lake. Still above 70° here.

 

Warning just extended to the lakefront.

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

455 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

ILC097-111-112230-

/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140511T2230Z/

MCHENRY IL-LAKE IL-

455 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAKE

AND EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 451 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODSTOCK...

AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM AT MARENGO AT

440 PM CDT...AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM AT

UNION AT 450 PM CDT.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO

ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WONDER LAKE...MCHENRY...ISLAND LAKE...PISTAKEE HIGHLANDS...

WAUCONDA...LAKE ZURICH...FOX LAKE...LAKE IN THE HILLS...BULL

VALLEY...HEBRON...PRAIRIE GROVE...OAKWOOD HILLS...MCCULLOM LAKE...

HOLIDAY HILLS...RICHMOND...TOWER LAKES...SUNNYSIDE...LAKEMOOR...

SPRING GROVE AND CRYSTAL LAKE.

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

533 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0528 PM TSTM WND GST GRAYSLAKE 42.35N 88.04W  

05/11/2014 M68 MPH LAKE IL EMERGENCY MNGR  

 

.6 MILES NW OF ROUTE 60 AND PETERSON ROAD NEAR BORDER OF  

GRAYSLAKE AND ROUND LAKE PARK.  

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  533 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    0528 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAYSLAKE               42.35N 88.04W   05/11/2014  M68 MPH          LAKE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR                  .6 MILES NW OF ROUTE 60 AND PETERSON ROAD NEAR BORDER OF               GRAYSLAKE AND ROUND LAKE PARK.     

 

That's about 15 miles from here. No wind here... kind of weird. High end moderate rain here with some C-G lightning.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  

636 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  

NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  

 

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.  

 

* AT 631 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF  

PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR STATE ROUTE 41 AT STATE ROUTE  

235...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

SPRINGFIELD...  

 

IN ADDITION...DONNELSVILLE...NORTH HAMPTON...DIALTON...SNYDERVILLE...  

LAWRENCEVILLE AND TREMONT CITY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS  

THUNDERSTORM.  

 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...  

I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 57...

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