Stebo Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Going back to the mesoscale models, HRRR and 4km NAM both nailed the storm coverage and intensity for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Great Zo Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 CLE has thus far confirmed one tornado from last night, just southwest of Cleveland: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 404 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LORAIN COUNTY OHIO... That was from this storm (image from WxNick): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 That was from this storm (image from WxNick): Yes, I saw that tweet, glad he tweeted that out. The velocity couplet was so-so with that storm, but the reflectivity signature was one of the more classic ones we've had in the Cleveland area recently, and it produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 New Day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1251 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014VALID 141200Z - 151200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS AND TNVALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL/UPPER OH VALLEY......SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THEMISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...AFEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY ANDSOUTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHWESTPENNSYLVANIA....SUMMARY...A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM/WEST TX WILL ROTATEEASTWARD AND INTO THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY WEDAFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERNMS INTO KY/TN AND OH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVELCYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THEBOUNDARY WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSTODAY....OH VALLEY...AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER PARTS OF MS/TN DURING THEMORNING...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OFTHE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPEVALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENTIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOONOVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACKNORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IND/OH AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN PA.ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ANDAPPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLSSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES IN THIS CORRIDOR. DAMAGINGWINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGHTHE AFTERNOON/EVENING....HART/BUNTING.. 05/14/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 After looking at this threat a bit more closely, it would appear that Ohio (perhaps KY initially) certainly has some potential today, perhaps into western Pennsylvania too with the greatest tornado threat. We're looking at a good overlap of shear and instability across the area later today. The NAM blows up a big convective cluster across KY by 20z and moves that into OH. A few smaller cells also pop up into western PA. It's when these cells reach the warm front, after moving through a region of greater instability that things could blow up as low-level winds are nicely backed . I was just looking at some RGEM soundings (limited stations) and here's Columbus for 18z. It's still a bit early and the winds are kind of unidirectional in the lowest levels, but still...I'm very interested to see what SPC does with their next Day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 New tornado watch in most of KY. Next stop most of Ohio. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1255 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFFAR SOUTHERN INDIANACENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKYNORTHEAST TENNESSEE* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PMUNTIL 800 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLESCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLEISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLETHE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLINGGREEN KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY.FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCHOUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 153...DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATEDSURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREAKS IN THECLOUDS COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD AFTERNOONMLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH CORRIDOROF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OFSUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OFTORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 And there it is. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK125 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFFAR SOUTHEAST INDIANANORTHEAST KENTUCKYOHIOWESTERN WEST VIRGINIALAKE ERIE* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PMUNTIL 900 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLESCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLEISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLETHE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OFCINCINNATI OHIO TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND OHIO. FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 153...WW 154...DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A SW-NE-ORIENTEDQUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF KY/OH.HERE...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL ANDDEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLSCAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 HRRR has been honing in on a general Columbus - Akron line with some high updraft helicity values...it's been doing pretty well recently so I'd keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOUNT VERNON... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTERBURG...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT VERNON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GAMBIER...FREDERICKTOWN AND DANVILLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOUNT VERNON... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTERBURG...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT VERNON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GAMBIER...FREDERICKTOWN AND DANVILLE Definitely some disagreement on that warning. Still in ILN's area and they have no warning up not even a severe thunderstorm warning. But Cleveland issues a tornado warning with it expected to move into Knox County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Definitely some disagreement on that warning. Still in ILN's area and they have no warning up not even a severe thunderstorm warning. But Cleveland issues a tornado warning with it expected to move into Knox County. According to Columbus news stations, Knox County Sheriff has no tornado reports yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 New tornado warning out for Richland and Ashland counties. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ASHLAND... SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 300 PM EDT * AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF BELLVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOUDONVILLE...HAYESVILLE AND POLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 strong circulation on the edge of this tornado warning box near Loudonville, OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 two tornado warnings in rural Ohio west of Wooster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 radar of both circulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 New day 1 increase probs to 10% Tor/30% hail and wind for most of ohio from cincy to dayton to west of cleveland and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 two tornado warnings in rural Ohio west of Wooster.Drove through those, didn't see anything much in terms of wind, but hail was up to 1" in diameter for a time 6 miles west of Wooster. Drove in both directions on 250/30 and didn't see any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Storm SE of West Union, OH (southern part of the state) has a pretty nice couplet. Edit: tornado warned with baseball sized hail as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Storm SE of West Union, OH (southern part of the state) has a pretty nice couplet. Just got tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Watching a local cincy channel and they just said baseball hail has now been reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 http://www.local12.com/news/features/live-news/popOut.shtml?wap=0.U3PSjO29LCQ Link to the stream on channel 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Looks like a debris ball on the channel 12 radar. It's in the same area as the rotation Edit: not debris ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Looks like a debris ball on the channel 12 radar, they haven't said anything about it. It's not a debris ball. There's been a pretty long-lived TBSS on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 It's not a debris ball. There's been a pretty long-lived TBSS on this storm. Can't remember ever looping a radar and seeing a TBSS there every scan. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 The high reflectivity from the core of that cell (mentioned with the Three-Body Scatter Spike) made the maximum expected hail size on GRLevel2AE go up to 4.3" east of West Union. They actually got 2" hail out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 523 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO... WESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT. * AT 519 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR CORWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... XENIA... IN ADDITION...MOUNT HOLLY...ROXANNA...SPRING VALLEY...NEW JASPER AND WILBERFORCE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 The high reflectivity from the core of that cell (mentioned with the Three-Body Scatter Spike) made the maximum expected hail size on GRLevel2AE go up to 4.3" east of West Union. They actually got 2" hail out of that. A little OT, but I've found that if you take the output from the hail algorithm on GR Level 2 Analyst and divide it by 2, you get close to reality of what's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Oh well, I have the 3-week trial version of GRLevel2AE (again.) but it's ending tomorrow. So tomorrow it's back to GRLevel3, which has pretty similar numbers on the hail algorithm. My experience has been that you take the GRLevel3 hail size and subtract about 0.5" to get real hail sizes. They have dropped the recent tornado warnings in SW Ohio. edit: re-issue of tornado warning at Xenia, the minute I typed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 ILN just re-issued the warning NE of Xenia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Dayton terminal doppler showing a potential weak tornado just south of Cedarville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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