May 10-14 Severe Weather

[snowlover2]

New day 3 has a 30% area into parts of MO/IA and a hatched area into parts of MO.

 

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS PROBABLE BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A
LEE CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE ACCELERATION OF A
S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

...MID-MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS...
PERVASIVE AND STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN
EXPANDING EML PLUME AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH
INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN STRONG POLEWARD
ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A
BROAD STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE DELIMITED BY EARLY SUN WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE E/NEWD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...BUT MORE PROBABLE
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWRN EXTENT WHERE
GREATER INSOLATION OCCURS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO SRN IA. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNDERCUTTING BY THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL LINEAR
MODES WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT. A
LARGE MCS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROADLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR.

FARTHER S...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN
/ESPECIALLY INVOF TRIPLE-POINT/ AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
REMOVE INHIBITION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE OVERLY
LARGE...CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY
LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN
EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SPREADS LOWER. EWD EXTENT
OF OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN COLD FRONT EVOLUTION AND DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL WARM
SECTOR INHIBITION.

..GRAMS.. 05/09/2014

 

[Hoosier]

Forecast soundings in IA in the vicinity of the warm front look beautiful on Sunday.  Environment should favor some tornadoes, and maybe some strong.

[cyclone77]

Forecast soundings in IA in the vicinity of the warm front look beautiful on Sunday.  Environment should favor some tornadoes, and maybe some strong.

 

Yeah forecast soundings look pretty sweet.  My only concern in Iowa is the festering convection along and north of the warm front many of the models indicate.  This would kill instability over pretty much all of Iowa if that pans out.  If the festering convection can lift far enough north and east that makes for a far more interesting scenario for southwest/south-central Iowa.  Past experiences lead me to believe the 'vection will linger along and north of the front much of the day.  Time will tell.

 

From a chasing stand point I like the slower evolving Euro solution, which places the best chances for tornadoes back in southern NE/northern KS in the Concordia/Hebron areas.  I think areas further northeast will be plagued by the clouds/lingering precip.  As long as the cold front doesn't undercut things prematurely further west I think the best chance for tornadoes will be west of the Missouri River.

[RCNYILWX]

Haven't looked at the 00z run but on the 18z GFS, soundings in west central IL along the warm front Sunday evening were quite impressive, if convection initiates that far east near the front.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

[snowlover2]

SPC considered a moderate risk for new day 2 but decided against it for now.

 

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM IOWA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN
ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A
CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A
DRYLINE MIXING TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE
ACCELERATION OF A S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A PORTION OF THIS
FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN NIGHT.

....UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...
CONSIDERED A MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF KS TO IA WHERE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A STRONG COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. BUT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...DEEP-LAYER FLOW GENERALLY PARALLELING THE FRONT AND
EFFECTS OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE THIS OUTLOOK.

STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING EML PLUME
AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH INCREASINGLY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMIDST POLEWARD ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF.
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM AT LEAST THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A BROAD STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE
RETURN/CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD AID IN REGENERATIVE CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS SUN MORNING INTO AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER
MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY. HOW EXACTLY THIS CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM PARTS OF IA TO IL. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...HODOGRAPHS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS
W/E-ORIENTED BOUNDARY WOULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY
DEVELOP IN IA.

THE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT
PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS IN NEB/KS. EVEN SO...STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING
BY THE FRONT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN KS WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY. WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS
GENERALLY PARALLELING THE FRONT...CLUSTER/LINEAR MODES SHOULD BECOME
DOMINANT AS CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO ZIPPER S/SWWD ALONG THE FRONT.
SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT.



..GRAMS.. 05/10/2014

 

[cyclone77]

From the SPC day 3 for Monday....

FARTHER N FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WIND   PROFILES WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS.   HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE   DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POTENTIAL   REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW...WILL   BROAD-BRUSH WITH LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.

If I had a dime for every time this impacts a setup in this area I'd be able to retire. 

[IWXwx]

From the SPC day 3 for Monday....

FARTHER N FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WIND   PROFILES WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS.   HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE   DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POTENTIAL   REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW...WILL   BROAD-BRUSH WITH LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.

If I had a dime for every time this impacts a setup in this area I'd be able to retire. 

 

I feel your pain. This area's the same. In fact, yesterday was a case in point for us.

[Powerball]

From the SPC day 3 for Monday....

FARTHER N FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WIND   PROFILES WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS.   HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE   DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY POTENTIAL   REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR NOW...WILL   BROAD-BRUSH WITH LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES.

If I had a dime for every time this impacts a setup in this area I'd be able to retire. 

 

That's just how we roll, especially us further NE.

[huronicane]

Nice tidbit from Izzi this morning:

 

 

 

WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND WITH
STILL RESPECTABLE VALUES OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THREAT DOES EXISTS FOR
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE SEVERE. NOT
TO MENTION THAT ILLINOIS WARM FRONTS SEEM TO LIKE TO PRODUCE
"SURPRISES" THIS TIME OF YEAR.

[Hoosier]

Maybe it's just me but 12z NAM forecast soundings out in IA seem even more impressive than the 00z run.  That is some nasty looking stuff.  I guess if I'm nitpicking, the speed shear in the mid/upper levels could be better but I'm not really sure it matters all that much given the strong low level shear and impressive directional shear throughout much of the column.  If the setup doesn't get wrecked by crapvection, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see a higher end tornado out there.  

[Hoosier]

Something that hasn't been mentioned...models are advertising areas of 70 degree dewpoints as far north as Michigan on Monday...and it's not just the GFS showing it.  Obviously that would help out instability should it verify. 

[Stebo]

Something that hasn't been mentioned...models are advertising areas of 70 degree dewpoints as far north as Michigan on Monday...and it's not just the GFS showing it. Obviously that would help out instability should it verify.

Monday certainly has some potential and that potential has been slowly going up. Obviously Sunday's leftover convection could be an issue but there have been hints of LLJ maintaining strengthen during the afternoon over IL/WI into IN/MI.

[Hoosier]

Monday certainly has some potential and that potential has been slowly going up. Obviously Sunday's leftover convection could be an issue but there have been hints of LLJ maintaining strengthen during the afternoon over IL/WI into IN/MI.

 

 

Yeah, I could easily see higher probs as it gets closer.  Overall tornado threat looks considerably less than Sunday though.

[Hoosier]

New SWODY2 has a MDT tickling the western fringes of the forum, mentions many tornadoes.

 

.....

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA...ERN   NEB...NW MO AND KS...   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS....MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...   ...SUMMARY...   SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL   POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS   AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.   ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND   SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...   ...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION   SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS   THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS   THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.   A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MID MO VALLEY   SUNDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...MOST OF   THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN UNDISTURBED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY   AFTERNOON AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BY LATE   AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM   FRONT FROM IA EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE NEB AND   CNTRL KS. DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR   AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH   MANY TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY   NIGHT.   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/MON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM   DES MOINES IA SWWD TO TOPEKA KS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES   COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS FORECASTING MLCAPE IN   THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. IN   ADDITION...LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE   HELICITIES OF 350 TO 500 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG OR LONG-TRACK   TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET   RAPIDLY BECOMES FOCUSED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.   SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.   HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH   THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.   UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL UNFOLD   SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STORM MODE. THE   IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG ROTATION WITH   SUPERCELLS BUT THE STORMS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE   INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING WILL   BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN   IA...SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME REMAINING DISCRETE. THE   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR STRONG   TORNADOES AT DES MOINES IA AT 00Z/MON SUGGESTING THE WARM FRONT MAY   HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET   CONSOLIDATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...THE GREATEST TORNADO   THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES.   ...SRN PLAINS...   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION   SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.   SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A VERY MOIST WARM   SECTOR EXTENDING EWD FROM A DRYLINE IN FAR WRN OK AND NW TX. AS   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY   AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE.   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM CLINTON OK SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS TX SHOW AN   IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 3500   J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 35 KT WITH   850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE VERY   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREAT THAN 2   INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT IN SPITE   OF THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.    ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND   WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...BACKED SELY FLOW WILL   RESULT IN A BROAD MOIST SECTOR FROM SRN MS SEWD INTO IL AND WRN IND   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. SCATTERED   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR   AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE   SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED...INSTABILITY   AND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. LARGE   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS BUT ISOLATED WIND   DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.   ..BROYLES.. 05/10/2014

[wxhstn74]

Stormy, Changeable Week Ahead?

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/05/models-intimating-stormy-changable-week.html

[Geos]

4km NAM showing a MCS looking entity crossing central IL tonight.

 

 

[Justin]

That zone between Council Bluffs, Des Moines, and Lamoni could be very interesting tomorrow if the lingering morning stuff can get out of the way.  The Red Oak area may be a good area to start with and adjust from there accordingly.  Really though anywhere along that warm front is going to have some very strong potential for some intense weather tomorrow afternoon/night and I fully expect to see at least one strong tornado somewhere from Western Illinois, Southern/Central Iowa, or Northern Missouri. 

[snowlover2]

4km NAM showing a MCS looking entity crossing central IL tonight.

 

 

Looks like this model nailed it.

[Thunder Road]

We're tentatively heading out for one more chase tomorrow.  We're in the middle of finals (it's a tradition here to have finals Thu-Sat and then Mon-Tue...for some reason...) so we're thinking it's best for time purposes to stay east of the Mississippi.

 

I'm actually a bit bearish on this one, at least the easternmost extent where we could conceivably chase, since the WF becomes pretty diffuse in IL so the forcing is iffy.  Granted, parameters are there something fun if we can actually realize them.

[Hoosier]

We're tentatively heading out for one more chase tomorrow.  We're in the middle of finals (it's a tradition here to have finals Thu-Sat and then Mon-Tue...for some reason...) so we're thinking it's best for time purposes to stay east of the Mississippi.

 

I'm actually a bit bearish on this one, at least the easternmost extent where we could conceivably chase, since the WF becomes pretty diffuse in IL so the forcing is iffy.  Granted, parameters are there something fun if we can actually realize them.

 

 

00z NAM looks convectivey in the IL/IN area tomorrow afternoon/evening.  Granted shear looks questionable.

[cyclone77]

00z NAM looks convectivey in the IL/IN area tomorrow afternoon/evening.  Granted shear looks questionable.

 

Yeah the 4km looks pretty intriguing for southeast Iowa into IL south of I-80.  The overall wind profiles are weaker than the main target to the west, but there's some nice looping hodos on the forecast soundings.  If instability is allowed to build up through the day in this area this could be sort of a sleeper target.  The obvious play is out in southeast NE, but this one has me second guessing whether I want to make the drive out west. 

[Powerball]

Monday certainly has some potential and that potential has been slowly going up. Obviously Sunday's leftover convection could be an issue but there have been hints of LLJ maintaining strengthen during the afternoon over IL/WI into IN/MI.

 

The biggest impediment to any severe weather on Monday around these parts will be the lack of a well-defined trigger, unless some type of MCV tracks through during peak heating.

 

On the plus side, all the models advertise some decent mid-level drying Monday afternoon with the heights rising, which will help the cause in keeping any convective debris to a minimum.

[Hoosier]

5% tornado area extending eastward to the IL/IN border on the new day 1 outlook.

[Thunder Road]

6z NMM pops some good stuff in E IA:

 

 

Our discussion this morning noticed that once you removed the crapvection from the 0z NMM/ARW over N IL that isn't verifying, you get that development.

 

ARW isn't biting though.

[Thunder Road]

We decided not to go.  5 hours to Cedar Rapids just aint worth it with the bust potential, especially considering that most of us have finals tomorrow.

[A-L-E-K]

decent shot at a complex rolling later this evening…best action obv well west

[IWXwx]

We decided not to go.  5 hours to Cedar Rapids just aint worth it with the bust potential, especially considering that most of us have finals tomorrow.

 

What?! You chose finals over chasing? Seriously though, probably a good call.

[The_Doctor]

LOT:

.DISCUSSION... 1030 AM CDT THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING REMAINS CHALLENGING...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE STARTING TO SHOW THEMSELVES SLIGHTLY AND THE EFFECT OF EARLY MORNING UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BE RESOLVED BETTER BY HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO IS SLOWLY EVOLVING EAST. WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE THE PROBABLE PRESENCE OF AN MCV OR AT LEAST A LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IN FAR SOUTHWEST IA. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS UNLIKELY TO RAPIDLY MOVE EAST DUE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALES IS EVIDENT AND FORECAST TO INCREASE. WITH DIMINISHING INHIBITION...THERE SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST SOME EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SCATTERED MAINLY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN MO/EASTERN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FAR DOWNSTATE IL...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN IL...BUT BASED ON THE CLEAR PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IN FAR SOUTHERN IA AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN IL...IT IS LIKELY TO BE STRENGTHENING NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND EVOLVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BASICALLY INTERSECT THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED/REMNANT CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS BECOMING LOWER- ROOTED TO OUR WEST OR POTENTIALLY IN OUR WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-AFTERNOON. MLCAPE STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF OVER 2000 J/KG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS. SO BASICALLY MORE TOWARD SCENARIO 3 IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AFD LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE...AND THE TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER FAVORED MENTIONED BEFORE REMAIN THE SAME. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVE REMAINS LOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORMS IN THE CHICAGOLAND AREA REMAINS LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE BREEZE ACROSS EASTERN COOK AND INTO LAKE COUNTIES IL TRIGGERS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION PRIOR TO THIS...AND A COUPLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...INCLUDING 17Z RAOB LAUNCHES...AS IT RELATES TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND MAGNITUDES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

[A-L-E-K]

nice update

[hawkeye_wx]

Tornado watch has been issued for my area, but all we are getting is just a blob of light rain.  Maybe areas farther south will get some good storms.