andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Where did you get the idea that would be even remotely close to actually happening? Personally I'm planning on sitting today out unless it becomes evident the dryline will fire something interesting in OK or perhaps on the OK/KS border. I give that about a 1 in 4 chance right now. On another note, what's up with the rotating wall cloud with the supercell in Southeast Kansas at 1 AM? That certainly concerns me regarding the chance of morning tornadic convection a bit later as mentioned in the SWODY1. Or perhaps the chances of something happening overnight in OK/KS into Monday. Not that most chasers want any part of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The 9z HRRR has a string of pearls going off by ~21-22z across SE NE and KS. Strongest backing at the sfc seems to be located across SC/SE KS. Sfc dews appear to get mixed out after 16z which makes LCL's a huge concern given T/Td spread are near 30f by 20z(probably biased high since the GFS/NAM have DP's in and around 70f as opposed to the low sixties). LCL heights are going to make the difference today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 NSSL WRF initiates an absolute monster supercell in NE in the late afternoon, UH is completely maxed out, and then KS looks like it gets going too, although I'd be concerned about undercutting in that case. I'm not too confident on this setup as a whole, sure the parameters are potentially very volatile, but there are a number of caveats with the synoptic setup/resultant mesoscale implications that make this much less of a sure bet. If we do end up with a full blown outbreak tomorrow, as suggested by the most recent D2 outlook, I'll be rather surprised. The latest SWODY1 is a MDT Risk for hail/wind, not tornadoes. The 13Z outlook is a pretty far cry from the "many tornadoes" mentioned as a possibility yesterday. The short-range models changed quite a bit. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... POTENT NV/UT UPR LOW/TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E TO THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING ENE AND DEAMPLIFYING OVER ERN CO EARLY MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE OH VLY/GRT LKS. AT LWR LVLS...ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NE INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TODAY AS CIRCULATION CENTER DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE E/NEWD TNGT AND EARLY MON AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES E INTO THE SRN HIGH PLNS. THE COLD/STNRY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLNS LOW...AND...TO SOME EXTENT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SE NEB/IA...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TNGT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The latest SWODY1 is a MDT Risk for hail/wind, not tornadoes. The 13Z outlook is a pretty far cry from the "many tornadoes" mentioned as a possibility yesterday. The short-range models changed quite a bit.The "many tornadoes" outlook was written by Broyles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The main MOD threat was always hail. The tornado threat was never more than 10% hatched which would still be a slight by itself. The text above is referring to the earlier convection. If you continue to actually read the outlook, they are still plenty concerned with the late afternoon redevelopment tornado wise in NE/IA and into KS Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Today's outlook still says there coild be a "sizable tornado risk" Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The "many tornadoes" outlook was written by Broyles... I know; I was just pointing it out. The main MOD threat was always hail. The tornado threat was never more than 10% hatched which would still be a slight by itself. The text above is referring to the earlier convection. If you continue to actually read the outlook, they are still plenty concerned with the late afternoon redevelopment tornado wise in NE/IA and into KS Sent from my LG-LS980 Good point--thanks for mentioning that. Currently the situation seems to be evolving much as the 06Z NAM indicated. The plume of deep moisture convergence / steeper ML lapse rates should allow the southern extent of the NE morning convection to intensify into early afternoon, with the atmosphere becoming primed farther south into KS. Fixed-layer STP is already 4 in ctrl KS. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a nice loaded gun signature, but as mentioned the LCLs will be the biggest question re: tornado probability in KS/OK along the dryline. Besides the LCLs, DP mixing will need to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Radar trends suggest that se NE should clear out this morning. Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Today's outlook still says there coild be a "sizable tornado risk" Sent from my LG-LS980 Days like this never seem to pan out IMO. lots of uncertainties ~8 hours before doesn't bode well. LCL heights in KS will be too high for too long, and the linear forcing will come in and develop an extensive squall line... Meanwhile in IA/ NE the atmosphere will probably take too long to recover from morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The fact that convection is almost into and through south NE... I'm not too worried. I'm still pretty confident this will be a decent event Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Days like this never seem to pan out IMO. lots of uncertainties ~8 hours before doesn't bode well. LCL heights in KS will be too high for too long, and the linear forcing will come in and develop an extensive squall line... Meanwhile in IA/ NE the atmosphere will probably take too long to recover from morning convection. I disagree about Nebraska not recovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Yea, Nebraska is going to recover just fine. It's more a question of storm mode. I disagree about Nebraska not recovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 I disagree about Nebraska not recovering. temp at OAX sits below 60 ATTM and cloud cover is still pretty evident for an hour or two more... Convection JUST moved out of the area too. Lots of outflow boundaries setup though. But when the WF moves through whenever that happens you'll probably see temps shoot up real quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 SE NE is pretty much completely cleared out, flow is already backing with temps into the 70s to the south and DP's in the 60's. This pic from Dawson, NE shows just how fast it cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Lol at Nebraska not being cleared out in time. Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 temp at OAX sits below 60 ATTM and cloud cover is still pretty evident for an hour or two more... Convection JUST moved out of the area too. Lots of outflow boundaries setup though. But when the WF moves through whenever that happens you'll probably see temps shoot up real quick ... at 10 am... Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The last few interactions in this thread are almost unreadable. For the love of God it is 10:27 AM and SE NE is cleared out. If you're already talking bust, you should probably save yourself the trouble later and stop posting right now. The HRRR, which did well on 4/28-4/29 and has a decent handle on current convection (if anything it's a little overzealous right now), has a string of pearls that would make big outbreaks of the past for the target area blush. I myself still have a few questions on how discrete the storms will remain, but calling for a bust or an event to not live up to the "hype" is ludicrous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 From 1630 SPC Day 1 OTLK: IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER S-CNTRL NEB SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INTO WRN KS. AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE LARGELY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE COLD FRONT AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-400 M2 PER S2/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION SUGGEST A GREATER RISK FOR TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY INTENSE/ GIVEN A MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Lincoln, NE, looks to be near the bullseye as far as significant TOR potential goes…with STP of 2+ already appearing there. I would target that rather restricted area of sern NE / swrn IA late this afternoon. The area will be along and just south of the retreating warm front, where tornado potential will be enhanced. Everything elsewhere looks to go linear very quickly. Even in the target area storms will tend to enter a mixed mode after 02Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Looks like a supercell is evolving out of the remnant MCS in Clarke County IA. The SPC-WRF and HRRR both predicted this, and that cell is in a favorable tornadic environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The last few interactions in this thread are almost unreadable. For the love of God it is 10:27 AM and SE NE is cleared out. If you're already talking bust, you should probably save yourself the trouble later and stop posting right now. The HRRR, which did well on 4/28-4/29 and has a decent handle on current convection (if anything it's a little overzealous right now), has a string of pearls that would make big outbreaks of the past for the target area blush. I myself still have a few questions on how discrete the storms will remain, but calling for a bust or an event to not live up to the "hype" is ludicrous at this point. Great advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Looks like a supercell is evolving out of the remnant MCS in Clarke County IA. The SPC-WRF and HRRR both predicted this, and that cell is in a favorable tornadic environment.Definite rotation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Tornado watch just went up ahead of this, from Des Moines to east of Davenport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 TORNADO WARNING IAC039-117-111730- /O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0004.140511T1657Z-140511T1730Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 1230 PM CDT * AT 1157 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OSCEOLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LUCAS...WOODBURN...WELDON...DERBY AND CHARITON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 31. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 4098 9384 4112 9336 4090 9335 4089 9351 4090 9383 TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 257DEG 24KT 4094 9374 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.00IN $$ COGIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Also, here's a better shot of that large tornado near Marshall, MO I posted last night. Definitely on the ground. Credit Dave Holder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Tightening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Environment in the Omaha area is looking ugly later on as the warm front moves north and assumes a position where it's essentially intersecting the metro with extreme low level backing in place (a bit like 4/27 in the Little Rock area) and a plume of steep mid level lapse rates associated with the EML is overspreading the region pretty nicely. And yeah that 12z sounding at Topeka is pretty amazing for that time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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