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Severe weather: 5/10-5/12 Plains/Midwest


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Where did you get the idea that would be even remotely close to actually happening? Personally I'm planning on sitting today out unless it becomes evident the dryline will fire something interesting in OK or perhaps on the OK/KS border. I give that about a 1 in 4 chance right now. 

 

On another note, what's up with the rotating wall cloud with the supercell in Southeast Kansas at 1 AM? That certainly concerns me regarding the chance of morning tornadic convection a bit later as mentioned in the SWODY1. 

 

Or perhaps the chances of something happening overnight in OK/KS into Monday.

 

Not that most chasers want any part of that.

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The 9z HRRR has a string of pearls going off by ~21-22z across SE NE and KS. Strongest backing at the sfc seems to be located across SC/SE KS. Sfc dews appear to get mixed out after 16z which makes LCL's a huge concern given T/Td spread are near 30f by 20z(probably biased high since the GFS/NAM have DP's in and around 70f as opposed to the low sixties). LCL heights are going to make the difference today.

 

post-7879-0-84609900-1399810204_thumb.pn

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NSSL WRF initiates an absolute monster supercell in NE in the late afternoon, UH is completely maxed out, and then KS looks like it gets going too, although I'd be concerned about undercutting in that case.

 

I'm not too confident on this setup as a whole, sure the parameters are potentially very volatile, but there are a number of caveats with the synoptic setup/resultant mesoscale implications that make this much less of a sure bet. If we do end up with a full blown outbreak tomorrow, as suggested by the most recent D2 outlook, I'll be rather surprised.

The latest SWODY1 is a MDT Risk for hail/wind, not tornadoes. The 13Z outlook is a pretty far cry from the "many tornadoes" mentioned as a possibility yesterday. The short-range models changed quite a bit.

 

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...

POTENT NV/UT UPR LOW/TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E TO THE UT/CO BORDER AREA

THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING ENE AND DEAMPLIFYING OVER ERN CO EARLY

MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL AND

SRN PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE OH

VLY/GRT LKS.

AT LWR LVLS...ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE FROM THE TX

PANHANDLE NE INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY

TODAY AS CIRCULATION CENTER DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OK

PANHANDLE. THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE E/NEWD TNGT AND EARLY MON AS

SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES E INTO THE SRN

HIGH PLNS.

THE COLD/STNRY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLNS LOW...AND...TO SOME

EXTENT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SE

NEB/IA...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...VERY STRONG

WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. 

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The latest SWODY1 is a MDT Risk for hail/wind, not tornadoes. The 13Z outlook is a pretty far cry from the "many tornadoes" mentioned as a possibility yesterday. The short-range models changed quite a bit.

The "many tornadoes" outlook was written by Broyles...
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The main MOD threat was always hail. The tornado threat was never more than 10% hatched which would still be a slight by itself. The text above is referring to the earlier convection. If you continue to actually read the outlook, they are still plenty concerned with the late afternoon redevelopment tornado wise in NE/IA and into KS

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The "many tornadoes" outlook was written by Broyles...

I know; I was just pointing it out.

 

The main MOD threat was always hail. The tornado threat was never more than 10% hatched which would still be a slight by itself. The text above is referring to the earlier convection. If you continue to actually read the outlook, they are still plenty concerned with the late afternoon redevelopment tornado wise in NE/IA and into KS

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Good point--thanks for mentioning that. Currently the situation seems to be evolving much as the 06Z NAM indicated. The plume of deep moisture convergence / steeper ML lapse rates should allow the southern extent of the NE morning convection to intensify into early afternoon, with the atmosphere becoming primed farther south into KS. Fixed-layer STP is already 4 in ctrl KS. The 12Z TOP sounding shows a nice loaded gun signature, but as mentioned the LCLs will be the biggest question re: tornado probability in KS/OK along the dryline. Besides the LCLs, DP mixing will need to be monitored.

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Today's outlook still says there coild be a "sizable tornado risk"

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Days like this never seem to pan out IMO. lots of uncertainties ~8 hours before doesn't bode well. LCL heights in KS will be too high for too long, and the linear forcing will come in and develop an extensive squall line... Meanwhile in IA/ NE the atmosphere will probably take too long to recover from morning convection.
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Days like this never seem to pan out IMO. lots of uncertainties ~8 hours before doesn't bode well. LCL heights in KS will be too high for too long, and the linear forcing will come in and develop an extensive squall line... Meanwhile in IA/ NE the atmosphere will probably take too long to recover from morning convection.

I disagree about Nebraska not recovering.

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I disagree about Nebraska not recovering.

temp at OAX sits below 60 ATTM and cloud cover is still pretty evident for an hour or two more... Convection JUST moved out of the area too. Lots of outflow boundaries setup though. But when the WF moves through whenever that happens you'll probably see temps shoot up real quick
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temp at OAX sits below 60 ATTM and cloud cover is still pretty evident for an hour or two more... Convection JUST moved out of the area too. Lots of outflow boundaries setup though. But when the WF moves through whenever that happens you'll probably see temps shoot up real quick

... at 10 am...

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The last few interactions in this thread are almost unreadable.  For the love of God it is 10:27 AM and SE NE is cleared out.  If you're already talking bust, you should probably save yourself the trouble later and stop posting right now.  The HRRR, which did well on 4/28-4/29 and has a decent handle on current convection (if anything it's a little overzealous right now), has a string of pearls that would make big outbreaks of the past for the target area blush.  I myself still have a few questions on how discrete the storms will remain, but calling for a bust or an event to not live up to the "hype" is ludicrous at this point.

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From 1630 SPC Day 1 OTLK:

 


  IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS   ANTICIPATED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER   S-CNTRL NEB SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INTO WRN KS. AMPLE   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE   WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE LARGELY   PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE COLD   FRONT AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUICK UPSCALE   GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS   PARTS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING   WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-400   M2 PER S2/ AND A MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION   SUGGEST A GREATER RISK FOR TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY INTENSE/ GIVEN A   MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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Lincoln, NE, looks to be near the bullseye as far as significant TOR potential goes…with STP of 2+ already appearing there. I would target that rather restricted area of sern NE / swrn IA late this afternoon. The area will be along and just south of the retreating warm front, where tornado potential will be enhanced. Everything elsewhere looks to go linear very quickly. Even in the target area storms will tend to enter a mixed mode after 02Z.

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The last few interactions in this thread are almost unreadable.  For the love of God it is 10:27 AM and SE NE is cleared out.  If you're already talking bust, you should probably save yourself the trouble later and stop posting right now.  The HRRR, which did well on 4/28-4/29 and has a decent handle on current convection (if anything it's a little overzealous right now), has a string of pearls that would make big outbreaks of the past for the target area blush.  I myself still have a few questions on how discrete the storms will remain, but calling for a bust or an event to not live up to the "hype" is ludicrous at this point.

Great advice  ;)  

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TORNADO WARNING

IAC039-117-111730-

/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0004.140511T1657Z-140511T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1157 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OSCEOLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LUCAS...WOODBURN...WELDON...DERBY AND CHARITON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A

VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND

PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 9384 4112 9336 4090 9335 4089 9351

4090 9383

TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 257DEG 24KT 4094 9374

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

HAIL...1.00IN

$$

COGIL

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Environment in the Omaha area is looking ugly later on as the warm front moves north and assumes a position where it's essentially intersecting the metro with extreme low level backing in place (a bit like 4/27 in the Little Rock area) and a plume of steep mid level lapse rates associated with the EML is overspreading the region pretty nicely.

 

And yeah that 12z sounding at Topeka is pretty amazing for that time of day.

 

TOP.gif

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