SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Very strong couplet now, near Marshall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Any TOR in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Possible large tornado north of Marshall, MO, from Dan Robinson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Possible large tornado north of Marshall, MO, from Dan Robinson. That structure is gorgeous, but I don't think the base is touching the ground…you can see a narrow silhouette of lighter gray behind the treeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorky Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Sometimes, the grey can be rain and moisture close to the ground being driven around the tornado by RFD. Too difficult to tell from that photo though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 That structure is gorgeous, but I don't think the base is touching the ground…you can see a narrow silhouette of lighter gray behind the treeline. Tornado could very well be on the ground without condensation extending to the ground. Regardless it's a very large and potentially dangerous meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Have had other chaser confirmation that the above pic is a tor. Today certainly performed better than I thought it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Have had other chaser confirmation that the above pic is a tor. Today certainly performed better than I thought it would. Yeah there was also a NWS storm report related with the storm in that location of a tornado as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The storms over southern Kansas have been interesting to watch. When one 'wraps up', it surges SE, produces a funnel cloud, then weakens and turns back NE. I bet people got some great structure shots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Holy Bonkers 0Z NAM for W OK by sunset tomorrow! The simulated radar does not show precipitation but humidity values at 700 MB do show some sort of initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The storms over southern Kansas have been interesting to watch. When one 'wraps up', it surges SE, produces a funnel cloud, then weakens and turns back NE. I bet people got some great structure shots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Wow that is one of the best supercell shots I have ever seen. Really amazing looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Biggest question tomorrow in IA/NE I think is going to be storm mode. Things could get messy fast up there. Then again, the mode was generally messy the night of Hallam, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 ScreenHunter_83 May. 10 22.32.png Hot damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Once again, the Northern target will be at the mercy of the first round of convection tomorrow. If convection moves out quickly or just doesn't go at all, then anywhere along and south of I-80 in W IA and E NE has the potential to be significant. SE NE has CAPE values AOA 3000 J/Kg and in an environment that is favorable for rotating storms but shear vectors aren't ideal. (Nothing ever is, right?) Good luck to everyone out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Playing the DL tomorrow in NW OK. I know LCLs will probably be too high during the daylight hours, but hoping for some nice structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Playing the DL tomorrow in NW OK. I know LCLs will probably be too high during the daylight hours, but hoping for some nice structure. Same boat here. Looks like the 0Z GFS does initiate discrete convection by 0Z in Western Oklahoma and Kansas. I think we could have some fun tomorrow. FYI sunset in Woodward is at 8:34 PM today so we should continue to have light until at least 9 PM (02Z). Looking forward to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Discrete cells still firing in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The 00z SPC WRF goes to town with a cell in Iowa tomorrow afternoon but doesn't necessarily scream outbreak there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Rapid Scan was awesome to watch today... CIMSS put out some nice animations of the discrete supercells. GIF: http://go.wisc.edu/tswi42 MP4 Movie: http://go.wisc.edu/umk316 Warning, very large files! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The 00z SPC WRF goes to town with a cell in Iowa tomorrow afternoon but doesn't necessarily scream outbreak there. A bust in Iowa? I've never heard of such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The 00z SPC WRF goes to town with a cell in Iowa tomorrow afternoon but doesn't necessarily scream outbreak there. Meanwhile it lights up KS pretty good (assuming the storms don't get undercut/LCL heights cooperate). It appears to develop an MCS in southern NE around 09-10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 NSSL WRF initiates an absolute monster supercell in NE in the late afternoon, UH is completely maxed out, and then KS looks like it gets going too, although I'd be concerned about undercutting in that case. I'm not too confident on this setup as a whole, sure the parameters are potentially very volatile, but there are a number of caveats with the synoptic setup/resultant mesoscale implications that make this much less of a sure bet. If we do end up with a full blown outbreak tomorrow, as suggested by the most recent D2 outlook, I'll be rather surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 00Z SPC 4KM WRF fires a few 'discrete' cells in IL tomorrow. Wind fields aren't as impressive as they are closer to the SFC cyclone but at least they veer all the way and storm mode doesn't appear to be in question. Just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 SPC AC 110547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY... WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE MID-WEST AND OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS PRIMARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY INTO NRN IL BY AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PRE-STORM BUOYANCY. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW EARLY-DAY CONVECTION WILL UNFOLD AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IF AN MCS EVOLVES FROM SUNRISE CONVECTION THEN STORM MODE WILL FAVOR MORE WIND/HAIL ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVOLVE THEN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...JUST SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS MO ATTM...IT APPEARS LEGITIMATE MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVANCE INTO IA AHEAD OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY TSTM ACTIVITY...MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE-FREE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS KS/OK/TX SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 21Z. HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEBRASKA/KS BY 21Z. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90 ACROSS KS THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR ACROSS NEBRASKA SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES RISE ONLY INTO THE 80S AND CLOUD BASES SHOULD REFLECT A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES IS ACROSS NEBRASKA/IA...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EMERGE WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50KT SHOULD EASILY VENT/SHEAR DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD FORM IF SUPERCELLS CAN ADVANCE INTO MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STORM MERGERS/FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD ENCOURAGE AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE TOWARD IA/NWRN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF OK/TX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE DRYLINE...SUFFICIENT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BY 22-23Z. WHILE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE...AND A FEW OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS...DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IT WOULD APPEAR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THIS RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY. ..DARROW/DEAN.. 05/11/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0552Z (12:52AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Watch the mdt risk zone expand south into OK, and develop a high risk core from se Nebraska to northwest OK. Could then go PDS in a zone west of Wichita KS to Guthrie OK. Dry line looks very potent but will remain in that general area to about 21z then supercells will fire near OK-KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Watch the mdt risk zone expand south into OK, and develop a high risk core from se Nebraska to northwest OK. Could then go PDS in a zone west of Wichita KS to Guthrie OK. Dry line looks very potent but will remain in that general area to about 21z then supercells will fire near OK-KS border. Where did you get the idea that would be even remotely close to actually happening? Personally I'm planning on sitting today out unless it becomes evident the dryline will fire something interesting in OK or perhaps on the OK/KS border. I give that about a 1 in 4 chance right now. On another note, what's up with the rotating wall cloud with the supercell in Southeast Kansas at 1 AM? That certainly concerns me regarding the chance of morning tornadic convection a bit later as mentioned in the SWODY1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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