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Severe weather: 5/10-5/12 Plains/Midwest


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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014


MOC177-102245-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140510T2245Z/
RAY MO-
531 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAY COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...


AT 529 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ORRICK...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. ADDITIONALLY... LIVE MEDIA 
STREAMING CONFIRMS A CIRCULATION ON THE GROUND.  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT 
WITHOUT          SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
DAMAGE          TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE 
DAMAGE IS          LIKELY.
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108 

ACUS11 KWNS 102235

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 102235 

MOZ000-102330-

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0553

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0535 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

 

AREAS AFFECTED...SMALL PART OF WRN/CNTRL MO

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

 

VALID 102235Z - 102330Z

 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

 

SUMMARY...A SMALL TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF

TORNADIC SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER RAY COUNTY MISSOURI.

 

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY OVER RAY

COUNTY MISSOURI AS OF 2230Z. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL

FOR A LONG-LIVED TORNADO THREAT...THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE

POTENTIALLY TORNADIC AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH NO OTHER STORMS LIKELY TO INTERFERE WITH THIS CELL...A SMALL

TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM FOR A CONTINUED LOCALIZED

TORNADO THREAT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  

525 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

NORTHWESTERN LINN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

 

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  

 

* AT 524 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TRENTON...  

AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  

 

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  

 

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  

542 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

SOUTH CENTRAL RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

 

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  

 

* AT 538 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ORRICK...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

LEXINGTON...HENRIETTA...HARDIN AND CAMDEN.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND HAS CAUSED  

DAMAGE TO THE TOWN OF ORRICK. TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR STORM  

SHELTER NOW!  

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MOC033-107-177-102330-  

/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140510T2330Z/  

CARROLL MO-LAFAYETTE MO-RAY MO-  

607 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014  

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAY...NORTH  

CENTRAL LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM  

CDT...  

 

AT 605 PM CDT...A STORM CHASER CONFIRMED A TORNADO NORTH OF  

LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  

 

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That EML on the 18z NAM for tomorrow looks a bit problematic with 10-12˚C 700 mb temperatures nosing into IA.

I've mentioned this problem previously, and additionally, the 18Z NAM suggests that a lingering pool of relatively steeper mid-level lapse rates in the morning may allow convection over nern KS / sern NE / nwrn MO / swrn IA to persist through early afternoon. That could potentially represent a poor mixture of an ill-timed initial shortwave followed by the EML later in the afternoon. Between the cap and the convection the tornado threat in nrn MO / srn IA may well bust, though the risk for large hail would still support a MDT Risk. (Correct me if I'm wrong meteorologically.)

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