Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Standard Broyles outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 A couple more soundings from C IA for posterity. Don't remember seeing a STP of 14 on one of these before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 A couple more soundings from C IA for posterity. Don't remember seeing a STP of 14 on one of these before. I do, but only once w/o thermonuclear capping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Where i Central IA are those located? A couple more soundings from C IA for posterity. Don't remember seeing a STP of 14 on one of these before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jut2005 Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Anyone have any opinions on whether or not the Iowa City area is going to see any major tornadoes? I see we are on the edge of the 45% hatched area but all the models I look at seem to have the tornado threat just to our West(note I have no weather forecasting experience). The tornado threat seems to quickly drop off as you head east of Des Moines towards the Quad Citites. Is IC looking at more of a hail/wind threat than a tornado threat? Thanks in advance for your comments. I will be glued to this forum for the next 48 hours and enjoy everyones opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 stormchaserck19, on 10 May 2014 - 2:22 PM, said:Where i Central IA are those located? First one is Boone, IA. Second is Carroll, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 I may not have to go far tomorrow if I choose to head out (or not even have to leave ) and chase a few. Been awhile since I've been truly concerned about what could happen IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 *4 km NAM image* That secondary low it pops up there would be bad news, Omaha is right under the gun if the front retreats that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 So it looks like the ceiling for an Iowa tornado outbreak is 4/8/1999. That's gonna be awfully hard to match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 So it looks like the ceiling for an Iowa tornado outbreak is 4/8/1999. That's gonna be awfully hard to match... Well it wouldn't be incredibly hard to match if you have a few supercells go to absolute town near the WF given the ridiculous environment that is there. This event might not be prolific as the D2 outlook seems to suggest, but in terms of intensity, all the ingredients look to be there should the following work themselves out. The first question is leftover convection from today/tonight and then second how far north the WF gets and then last, but certainly not least: storm coverage itself once zero hour gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Very true. What's your thought on initiation, and when that will occur? And where? Well it wouldn't be incredibly hard to match if you have a few supercells go to absolute town near the WF given the ridiculous environment that is there. This event might not be prolific as the D2 outlook seems to suggest, but in terms of intensity, all the ingredients look to be there should the following work themselves out. The first question is leftover convection from today/tonight and then second how far north the WF gets and then last, but certainly not least: storm coverage itself once zero hour gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Very true. What's your thought on initiation, and when that will occur? And where? Well that's kind of dependent on where everything sets up, the triple point seems like a good place to start. I'm not going to get into timing more specifically since there's still a number of uncertainties, but obviously mid afternoon would be favoured as CIN weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Do you personally believe we will see a couple of sups out along the WF in IA? SPC seems fairly confident we will but I'm not as certain with a lack of forcing. Well that's kind of dependent on where everything sets up, the triple point seems like a good place to start. I'm not going to get into timing more specifically since there's still a number of uncertainties, but obviously mid afternoon would be favoured as CIN weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Do you personally believe we will see a couple of sups out along the WF in IA? SPC seems fairly confident we will but I'm not as certain with a lack of forcing. Not as confident as I'd like to be at this juncture, put it that way. I mentioned this somewhere else, but a concern is cells initiating near the triple point and then moving ENE into IA through the afternoon/evening with the ambient environment spreading/becoming rapidly more impressive along with them and ahead of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 We have our first mesoscsle model concern... the SPC WRF doesn't break out precip in the highest threat zone. Wouldn't worry about the hi res models this far out, though. I don't see forcing being a concern. Depending on what model you're looking at, you have 45 to 55 knot 500mb winds well into Iowa by 21z. That's well ahead of the triple point. Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 We have our first mesoscsle model concern... the SPC WRF doesn't break out precip in the highest threat zone. Wouldn't worry about the hi res models this far out, though. I don't see forcing being a concern. Depending on what model you're looking at, you have 45 to 55 knot 500mb winds well into Iowa by 21z. That's well ahead of the triple point. Sent from my LG-LS980 The 00z run of that model the night before 4/28 had zero convection in northern AL after 18z. Whoopsies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Exactly... I have just seen people irrationally freaking out about it already Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Also tomorrow could be a day where that radar hole in N MO/S IA really rears its ugly head again (today also could be). Just looking at mesoanalysis, the RAP currently appears to be underestimating SB/MLCAPE by a decent margin especially in eastern KS and western MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Also tomorrow could be a day where that radar hole in N MO/S IA really rears its ugly head again (today also could be). Just looking at mesoanalysis, the RAP currently appears to be underestimating SB/MLCAPE by a decent margin especially in eastern KS and western MO. Both the RAP and HRRR have a low dewpoint problem. I've watched it with each setup that was in my area and each time the RAP/HRRR mix out the dewpoints too much. I'm not sure if it's a model issue or if the drought is causing the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Here's something that's going on now: there's a splitting cell hear Holton KS, that popped up within the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Both the RAP and HRRR have a low dewpoint problem. I've watched it with each setup that was in my area and each time the RAP/HRRR mix out the dewpoints too much. I'm not sure if it's a model issue or if the drought is causing the issue. It's definitely a model issue since the RAP tends to have problems with overestimating temperatures (which also leads to its LCL heights being too high like 5/19/13). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Also tomorrow could be a day where that radar hole in N MO/S IA really rears its ugly head again (today also could be). Just looking at mesoanalysis, the RAP currently appears to be underestimating SB/MLCAPE by a decent margin especially in eastern KS and western MO. It's really surprising how bad some of the radar holes are and how long they've let them go without working towards a resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Cells east and se of Wichita really look ominous. 45,000k+ tops and starting to show some signs of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 It's really surprising how bad some of the radar holes are and how long they've let them go without working towards a resolution. Well money is obviously one of the problems, but the radar holes in the Arklatex and the one in N MO/S IA are significant considering how tornado prone those areas are (there's also one in the Arklamiss). Case in point, that's a pretty nasty looking cell moving towards Albany, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 If we get something like what is happening today over IA and MO tomorrow, there will be some serious problems to say the least. Also TOP has a much stronger worded (and very well written) discussion with their most recent AFD. By mid morning, expect all elevated thunderstorms to have movednorth out of the Nebraska border with warm air and a cap around 850HPa. Also expect substantial moisture transport under this cap,bringing surface dewpoints into the upper 60s and perhapsapproaching 70. This will also likely bring a layer of stratusbelow the cap. Expect this stratus to be thickest in eastern KS,but should at least scatter out by early afternoon, and perhapsclear out completely over north central KS by mid afternoon.Thus expect ample heating while the frontal boundary sets up on aSSW to NNE axis in central KS, likely near the HWY 81 corridor.Storms will develop in earnest by mid (perhaps early?) afternoonalong this front and will rapidly become severe. Given theexpected frontal orientation and the cap in place, expect thatsome of these storms through early evening may have success inremaining somewhat isolated and then having a storm motion off ofthe frontal boundary and into the warm sector. This seems to bemost favored across northern KS. These storms would be capable ofvery large hail. Fairly large, looped hodographs also suggest atornado threat as storms become well organized, although at leastin the afternoon, the warm temperatures may limit that potentialsomewhat as LCL`s may be too high for enhanced tornado potential.Regardless...the threat is there.Over time into the evening, expect storms to continue to developalong the frontal boundary but should begin to congeal more and moreinto line segments perhaps with embedded supercells. This is wherethe forecast gets a bit more tricky. Deep layer shear remainsimpressive, and low level shear strengthens significantly in theevening as the LLJ intensifies across the region. Should theatmosphere remain quite unstable through the night...and feel thatit will...could see supercell structures persist well after dark andperhaps into the early morning hours. Model sounding suggest thatthey will become slightly elevated, but with such a shallowinversion that it can not be trusted. Current thoughts are that thetornado potential will increase early evening as the LLJ begins toincrease, and by late evening may continue to increase but only ifsupercell structures can be maintained. The bottom line is to expectthese storms to be intense across the local forecast area,especially north of the Kansas Turnpike through mid evening butpossibly across the entire area into the early morning hours. Inaddition, heavy rainfall will be a possibility along with sometraining of storms, and while much of the area is quite dry thereis some potential for flash flooding. OAX: BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS LOOK TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY.SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE QUICKLY INTO THE LOW/MID 60S IN RESPONSETO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT UNDER THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET. THISSUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO MIXED LAYER CAPEVALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF40-60 KNOTS AND THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT WILLSET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER NIGHT. ALL SEVERETHREATS WILL BE SEEN...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ASSUPERCELLS DEVELOP UNDER THE STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL JET.FINALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED AND THATTHE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACEFRONT...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEE THEHYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS. ICT: FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE STRONGCOLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY-LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F WILLLEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT...WITHVERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILLBE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF STORMINITIATION...FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH THECOLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO RESULT IN TRANSITION TO A LINEARMODE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY. THAT SAID...BESIDESTHE RISK FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...A TORNADORISK COULD CONTINUE WITH THE TRANSITION TO A QUASI-LINEARMODE...ESPECIALLY PREFERENTIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN MOST CELLSAS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE RISK SHOULDDIMINISH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOPEFULLY MUCH OF CENTRAL ANDSOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGEOF CONVECTION FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. DMX: ALL EYES ARE ON SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF SEVEREWEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS POTENTIAL IS WELLCOVERED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK DISCUSSION AND READERS ARE ENCOURAGEDTO UTILIZE THAT RESOURCE AS IT IS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTOTOMORROW. IN SHORT...BY SUNDAY MORNING AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRETCH FROM AROUND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLENORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG ITS AXIS.ONGOING STORMS AROUND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ALONG THEIOWA/MISSOURI BORDER WILL COMPLICATE THE SITUATION...AND LIKELYRESULT IN AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWABY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONNECTING TO A COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN INTOCENTRAL OR EASTERN KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BEMAXIMIZED ALONG THIS EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WITH VERY HIGHINSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLYMULTIPLE...STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF WHERE THISWARM FRONT LIES AND EXACTLY HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCURWILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING STORMSAND THUS THE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. ALL RESIDENTS OF IOWASHOULD BE ON ALERT AND MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATIONCLOSELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 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JoMo Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 It's really surprising how bad some of the radar holes are and how long they've let them go without working towards a resolution. They could plug the Plains holes with probably 7-8 radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 If we get something like what is happening today over IA and MO tomorrow, there will be some serious problems to say the least. Also TOP has a much stronger worded (and very well written) discussion with their most recent AFD. OAX: ICT: DMX: Impressive amount of discrete cells... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 443 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 441 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COTTONWOOD FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...HEN EGG SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... EMPORIA AROUND 505 PM CDT. AMERICUS AROUND 510 PM CDT. ADMIRE AND ALLEN AROUND 525 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 KMBC on live with the chopper cam near KC. http://www.kmbc.com/news/live/24440840 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Cell nw of Trenton MO looks like a beast of a hailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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