Severe weather: 5/10-5/12 Plains/Midwest

[Superstorm93]

Regarding the high risk mention by DMX, maybe someone can chime in on whether this is perception or reality but I'm having trouble recalling SPC going high risk for a warm frontal tornado outbreak.  It seems like practically all of the high risks I can recall had the high risk area deeper in the warm sector. 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130612

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120414

[Thundersnow12]

Regarding the high risk mention by DMX, maybe someone can chime in on whether this is perception or reality but I'm having trouble recalling SPC going high risk for a warm frontal tornado outbreak. It seems like practically all of the high risks I can recall had the high risk area deeper in the warm sector.

4/14/12 had a separate HIGH for the warm front on the second day 2 and first day 1 I believe until they lumped it all together

[Hoosier]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130612

 

 

That high risk was for wind.  I'm talking about something for tornadoes and tied only to the warm front.

[kevinbente]

I don't think we should really worry about a High Risk designation as of yet. Models are trending towards a more significant severe event, but that doesn't mean that the parameters really support a High Risk over a large enough area to really consider it a "major severe weather outbreak" and rather have it be a more localized, volatile environment. --> see May 31, 2013 's 2000z outlook from the SPC. They don't mention "violent tornadoes" in moderate risks that often, and had it been a larger area I would have been certain they go High Risk.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130531_2000.html

 

"CELLS

THAT FORM OVER SWRN OR W CNTRL OK WILL MOVE E WITH A VERY HIGH
THREAT OF GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES."

[Hoosier]

4/14/12 had a separate HIGH for the warm front on the second day 2 and first day 1 I believe until they lumped it all together

 

 

Thanks

[Chicago Storm]

At this point I'm favoring the warm front, or an area near it. (SE. NE/IA/NW. MO/NE. KS)

 

Obviously a morning MCS could be an issue, but that could also leave an OFB hanging around...which would be nice.

[ZackH]

I don't think we should really worry about a High Risk designation as of yet. Models are trending towards a more significant severe event, but that doesn't mean that the parameters really support a High Risk over a large enough area to really consider it a "major severe weather outbreak" and rather have it be a more localized, volatile environment. --> see May 31, 2013 's 2000z outlook from the SPC. They don't mention "violent tornadoes" in moderate risks that often, and had it been a larger area I would have been certain they go High Risk.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_20130531_2000.html

 

"CELLS

THAT FORM OVER SWRN OR W CNTRL OK WILL MOVE E WITH A VERY HIGH

THREAT OF GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES."

 

I don't really think any of us are speculating that point.  We are just addressing the fact that a WFO in the threat area mentioned it. That's not something you see from a local office 3 days out often, so I think it was worth discussing simply for its unique nature.

[ZackH]

[Superstorm93]

4Km NAM goes ballistic FWIW:

 

[Coreyback]

Here's a warm front situation which resulted in a high risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20040522 Though it was only issued for the final 1z update, when numerous tornadic storms were underway. Partial credit?

[tornadotony]

I don't know about this one.  I think the potential is pretty high, but there are a lot of issues to sort out.  First off, when and to what extent is OK going to initiate?  The environment is pretty ehh before 00z down there, but as Chi Storm posted earlier, the low-level environment goes off the charts.  Emphasis on low-level.  I'm not impressed at all with the anvil level flow.  Of course, devil's advocate could say that we only had 35-45 kt of flow at 250 hPa here with a bajillion tornadoes on 4/28, and that's true.  But we also had much stronger flow just above 250 hPa (~100 kt at EL) to offset that.  If you get one supercell in OK between 00z and 06z, I could easily see it being a cyclic tornadic beast.  But there are a lot of ifs there.

 

As for the northern target, the parameter space is just incredible.  No two ways to slice it.  But will it be realized, or will remnant activity or an early messy mode screw it up?

[jcwxguy]

 

 

SPC AC 100543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE

SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...

AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR PROBABLE BEGINNING SUNDAY

AFTERNOON FROM IOWA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE TO VERY LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN

ROCKIES. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE

SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE...A

CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A

DRYLINE MIXING TOWARDS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER S/SWWD

ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE

ACCELERATION OF A S/SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN

PLAINS. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A PORTION OF THIS

FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN NIGHT.

....UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...

CONSIDERED A MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF KS TO IA WHERE SCATTERED

TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A STRONG COMBINATION OF

INSTABILITY/SHEAR. BUT UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL

PLACEMENT...DEEP-LAYER FLOW GENERALLY PARALLELING THE FRONT AND

EFFECTS OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE THIS OUTLOOK.

STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING EML PLUME

AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN...WITH INCREASINGLY RICH

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMIDST POLEWARD ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF.

MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED

FROM AT LEAST THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD...YIELDING A BROAD STRONGLY

UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG IN THE

AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE.

LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE

RETURN/CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD AID IN REGENERATIVE CLUSTERS OF

ELEVATED STORMS SUN MORNING INTO AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER

MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY. HOW EXACTLY THIS CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT IS

UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM PARTS OF IA TO IL. SHOULD THIS

OCCUR...HODOGRAPHS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS

W/E-ORIENTED BOUNDARY WOULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS

THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS SUGGESTS A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY

DEVELOP IN IA.

THE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT

PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS IN NEB/KS. EVEN SO...STRONG

CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A FEW

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING

BY THE FRONT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IN KS WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS

EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY. WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS

GENERALLY PARALLELING THE FRONT...CLUSTER/LINEAR MODES SHOULD BECOME

DOMINANT AS CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO ZIPPER S/SWWD ALONG THE FRONT.

SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...

INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE NEAR

THE LEE CYCLONE/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED STORMS

DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY

LARGE INITIALLY...CROSS-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE

FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY. VERY LARGE HAIL

WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY

FORMING AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT

SPREADS. SPREADS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS A SLY LLJ

STRENGTHENS...LIKELY MAXIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES

DURING THIS TIME FRAME INVOF WRN OK. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE

SHOULD OCCUR SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT IMPINGES ON THE STILL STRONGLY

BUOYANT AIR MASS...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS.

..GRAMS.. 05/10/2014

[andyhb]

As for the northern target, the parameter space is just incredible.  No two ways to slice it.  But will it be realized, or will remnant activity or an early messy mode screw it up?

 

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about that, considering how much leftover/junk convection has caused problems this year, especially 4/3/14. That said, I still like the triple point area a lot since the heaviest convection ongoing tomorrow evening at least should be east of that region, so while it might cause problems for the IA and N MO threat, it might be more clear towards the frontal/dryline intersection, i.e. southeast NE and northeast KS.

 

And that's a pretty ugly looking string of monsters on the 4 km NAM, to say the least.

[andyhb]

Latest from WFOs across the threat area.

 

DMX:

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
TONIGHT AND ALLOWS FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE
INTO SUNDAY. FIRST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND PRECIP LOOKS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SUNDAY. STRONG
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUNCHES INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH NORTHWARD BY THROUGH MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE 10.00Z 4KM NSSL WRF REMAINS DRY THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE...AND IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THEN
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA LOOKS TO MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LACK OF RAIN COOLED AIR/CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ONLY EXACERBATE THE INSTABILITY. THE 06Z MODEL RUNS ARE
HINTING ON THIS DRIER SCENARIO TONIGHT AS WELL AS BOTH THE
GFS/NAM HAVE TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WITH THE WARM FRONT ORIENTING
ITSELF WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALL POINT TO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS SET UP...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION SEVERE WORDING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

 

OAX:

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...PERHAPS
LIFTING AS FAR NORTH TO A KJYR TO KSUX LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS WILL EXIST. TO THE SOUTH...IT
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS DISCRETE CELLS...
THEN ROLL EAST THROUGH THE EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A SQUALL LINE.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH HATCHED 30 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 50-60 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. BELIEVE
THERE ALSO IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TORNADOES FOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH
ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. SPC INDICATED I
THEIR DISCUSSION THAT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK ON LATER OUTLOOKS.

 

 

TOP:

Convergence on nose of low level jet and elevated mixed layer push
northeast Sunday morning for diminishing chances of convection after
sunrise. Deep and strong south to southwest low level flow rule the
bulk of the day until cold front approaches and reaches north
central Kansas late in the afternoon. Could see stratus deck hold
for much of the day in the eastern Kansas, but good agreement with
thermal ridge building NNE into central portions of the state and
bumped up temps here. With higher confidence in the late morning to
early afternoon being dry, pre-frontal airmass CAPE should reach
well into moderate to extreme levels, but even if a modest surface
low traverses the front northeast across the state, the mixed and
quite strong (perhaps near Advisory) winds will be difficult to back
much, and along with the warmer temps raising LCLs, severe weather
should be limited to hail and wind. Initial area of concern will
be north central Kansas in the late afternoon and early evening,
but will spread south and east through the night with boundary
layer only slowly cooling/stabilizing with low level jet returning
to 50-60kt ahead of the front.

 

 

EAX:

Going into Sunday the threat for severe weather will continue as the
warm front continues its trek northward, keeping a steady flow of
good warm/moist air into the forecast area. With the entire forecast
area likely locked deep in the warm sector for Sunday it appears
that a majority of the CWA will escape any diurnally driven deep
convection. However portions of the western and northern CWA may
indeed be susceptible to the high-impact severe weather for Sunday
afternoon. The surface trough responsible for the warm air advection
looks to elongate and perhaps become two different lows, one in NE
Kansas or SE Nebraska, and one in the TX panhandle. The TX panhandle
portion will likely not affect the forecast area, but the northern
portion of the dual low will cause a localized backing of surface
and low level winds across NW/NC Missouri into SE Nebraska, NE
Kansas, and southern/central Iowa. This area, along the IA/MO/NE
border could be most at risk for severe weather, perhaps as far
south as Interstate 70, however given the lack of any forecast-able
boundary along Interstate 70 it appears at this point that
high-impact severe weather that far south is unlikely. Unlike
Saturday low level winds will be a quite a bit stronger, which will
lend to more elongated turning hodographs, especially in far
northern Missouri, where the winds are locally backed, east and
northeast of the surface low. Convective parameters look to be a bit
higher/stronger on Sunday than Saturday, which will keep all of the
same modes and hazards of severe weather on the table. SB CAPE north
of Highway 36 looks to reach the 3000-3500 J/kg range, with deep
layer shear vectors out of the west/southwest around 50 to 60 kts.
The low level turning will cause 0-1 SRH values in N Missouri to
reach the 150 to 250 m2/s2 range, more than ample for tornadoes to
form.

[ZackH]

12z NAM holds firm... WF and triple point looking potentially dangerous.

[Chinook]

No kidding. The 12z NAM has about 400 m2/s2 of 3km helicity and perhaps up to 65 kt of effective shear (6km or 7km shear) near Des Moines tomorrow.

[Hoosier]

SWODY2 upgraded to MDT, mentions "many tornadoes"

[Natester]

SWODY2 upgraded to MDT, mentions "many tornadoes"

 

That wording really worries me.  When was the last time a MAJOR tornado outbreak occurred in Iowa?

[Stebo]

SWODY2 upgraded to MDT, mentions "many tornadoes"

Decent sized MDT all the way to Wichita.

[Hoosier]

That wording really worries me.  When was the last time a MAJOR tornado outbreak occurred in Iowa?

 

 

Well, that would obviously depend on how you define major.

[Natester]

Well, that would obviously depend on how you define major.

 

Major, as in numerous F3/EF3 or stronger tornadoes in one day in Iowa.

[Superstorm93]

Impressive. 

 

 

 

 

 

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY AS DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MID MO VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN UNDISTURBED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FROM IA EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE NEB AND
CNTRL KS. DUE TO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
MANY TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/MON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM
DES MOINES IA SWWD TO TOPEKA KS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES
COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS FORECASTING MLCAPE IN
THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. IN
ADDITION...LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES OF 350 TO 500 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG OR LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY BECOMES FOCUSED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST CONCERNING HOW THE EVENT WILL UNFOLD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STORM MODE. THE
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG ROTATION WITH
SUPERCELLS BUT THE STORMS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO LINES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LINEAR FORCING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
IA...SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME REMAINING DISCRETE. THE
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR STRONG
TORNADOES AT DES MOINES IA AT 00Z/MON SUGGESTING THE WARM FRONT MAY
HAVE THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
CONSOLIDATES DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWWD AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES.

 

 

[hm8]

Major, as in numerous F3/EF3 or stronger tornadoes in one day in Iowa.

 

4/9/11?

[Hoosier]

Major, as in numerous F3/EF3 or stronger tornadoes in one day in Iowa.

 

 

April 8, 1999 had 16 tornadoes with 2 F4 and 2 F3.  More recently, April 9, 2011 had 20 tornadoes with 1 F4 and 3 F3.

[Natester]

4/9/11?

 

Well, I guess that can count.  All it takes in one supercell.  I really hope no towns gets hit by any tornado.

[Ground Scouring]

4/9/11?

05/09/1918 had eight F3+ tornadoes, four of which occurred in IA. 05/21/1918 had 10 F3+ events in IA. Still, I wouldn't compare this event to the really high-end ones in IA, though I think the MDT Risk is appropriate for hail at least. I am still a little skeptical re: the tornado threat in IA, partly due to the rather limited area for multiple tornadoes, but the chance of a substantial outbreak is rising as model confidence increases.

[Superstorm93]

4km NAM is just absolutely ridiculous for the Des Moines area 

 

 

[jojo762]

Looks like we could have a potentially widespread tornado outbreak on our hands for tomorrow. The northern threat is more of a given it seems... Southern part depends on storm mode, if storms remain discrete supercells an evident big time tornado threat would develop esp. after 00z

[Disc]

[Disc]

12z NAM for KDMX: