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Severe weather: 5/10-5/12 Plains/Midwest


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For posterity:

 

post-1389-0-51329500-1399851295_thumb.gi

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...

VALID 112323Z - 120030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FROM NEAR LINCOLN NEB
TOWARD OMAHA INTO SWRN IA. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC STORM.

DISCUSSION...AT 2315Z...A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL WAS IN NRN
LANCASTER COUNTY NEBRASKA JUST NORTH OF LINCOLN. THIS STORM HAS
EVOLVED AN HP-SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ON ITS REAR FLANK. THIS STORM EVOLUTION CASTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TORNADO THREAT AS IT
MOVES ENEWD...BUT IT REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT
MOVES ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE
SOUTH OF OMAHA. MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG COMBINED WITH O-1 KM SRH OF
300-400 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING
TORNADOES WITH THIS CELL AS IT APPROACHES OMAHA BY 00Z AND MOVES
INTO SWRN IA THEREAFTER.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN A
SIMILAR FASHION...POSING AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT NEAR LINCOLN
BY 00Z. VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE CELLS IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK.

..DEAN.. 05/11/2014

 

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Not sure if anyone else is noticing this, but you can visibly see the inflow/outflow rotating on the looping velocity scans on this Omaha cell. Circulation appears to be cycling again...

yep, looks like it is, and just in time to make its way to Omaha/Council Bluffs. Offut AFB as well as Boys Town will also have to keep an eye out for what this storm does.

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Which is it guys, strengthening or weakening? lol

could be a bit of both, actually. the rotation is still there, as seen on the velocity pictures. but the reflectivity is showing that the hook is there and anything that may be rotating is buried in heavy rain. maybe what's going on is that the tornado threat turns into a more downburst threat as the kinetic energy gets turned to become more linear.

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0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E LINCOLN             40.82N 96.67W
05/11/2014  M75 MPH          LANCASTER          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST MEASURED AT 75 MPH BY SPOTTER 1.5 MILES EAST OF
            THE LINCOLN AIRPORT. TREES BLOWN OVER.

 

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