Disc Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Newest MD would bring concern for Lincoln and Omaha areas. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142... VALID 112146Z - 112315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WITH LEAD SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM FRONT IN SE NEB...WITH LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...THE LEAD SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING NW FILLMORE AND YORK COUNTIES IN SE NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD IN SW IA/SE NEB...SUCH THAT THE SUPERCELL WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM/MOISTEN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE STORM MOTION...WITH THE SUPERCELL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY REACHING LINCOLN BY 23Z AND OMAHA/AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE S AROUND 00Z. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF STORM INTERACTIONS/INTERFERENCE WITH NEW STORM FORMATION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SUPERCELL...AND OTHER STORMS NOT FAR BEHIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Hook echo is really coming in the latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Right turned towards Lincoln. Layout of Lincoln is that most of development is to SE side, not much above I-80. except the airport and a bunch of hotels, which one im currently at working.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Ground Scouring, on 11 May 2014 - 6:00 PM, said:STP is down to 3 near the supercell…conditions are less favorable for long-lasting tornadoes? No, if anything conditions are increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 STP is down to 3 near the supercell…conditions are less favorable for long-lasting tornadoes? READ the MCD! Very intense couplet developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 anybody know if there is a tornado on ground currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Well it's on the warm front. At this point, LNK's only hope is a fortunate cycle. Else that, this is going to get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 This latest left turn has caught some chasers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ND_Supercell Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The Effective STP is still around 6...and RAP forecasts show it around 7 all the way east-northeast into the OMA area the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 anybody know if there is a tornado on ground currently?Large tornado east of Exter, NE 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Look out Cordova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 still 110 kts gtg. and it looks like it may make its own on-ramp onto I-80 in 30 or so mins near/east of Beaver Crossing. god help those chasing and/or living down that way and towards Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Insane couplet on radar headed right for Beaver Crossing, NE. Amazing velocity returns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 jcwxguy, on 11 May 2014 - 5:57 PM, said:except the airport and a bunch of hotels, which one im currently at working.. Stay safe. Hope you have a good place to go if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Ground Scraper: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 This is the opposite of a tail-end charlie. A forward-end charlie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Any live news streams from Lincoln anyone know of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Good god that velocity.. +127/-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 I'm really surprised there's no livestream from Lincoln right now. Only one I've found is Omaha, but they're just showing radar images. http://livewire.ketv.com/Event/Breaking_news_latest_updates_from_KETV_NewsWatch_7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 The HRRR from earlier is absolutely nailing this right now, there's another supercell organizing quickly in behind this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 They are probably more concerned for their own well-being right now. I'm really surprised there's no livestream from Lincoln right now. Only one I've found is Omaha, but they're just showing radar images. http://livewire.ketv.com/Event/Breaking_news_latest_updates_from_KETV_NewsWatch_7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 There's nowhere for this thing to go, it either stays on an easterly track and goes into Lincoln, or goes ENE/NE into the southern suburbs of Omaha or Omaha proper itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 yea Andy I was just thinking that. HRRR has done amazing today. man I am fearing for Lincoln right now. this cell has nothing to stop it. it is on the wf and taking advantage of the low level shear. nasty situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 And the tornado looks to be rainwrapped now.. There's nowhere for this thing to go, it either stays on an easterly track and goes into Lincoln, or goes ENE/NE into the southern suburbs of Omaha or Omaha proper itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Just happened to tune into Jason Hammer at ChaserTV and I saw him blown off the road looked like with power lines being thrown to the ground. Kinda worried about the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Matt Salo's came is... interesting... Edit: image changed before I posted it. Disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 Yes, I think Beaver Crossing took a 127 kt wind in the face (base velocity from GRLevel2, a few minutes ago, UEX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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