forkyfork Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 the euro past day 4 tends to be too amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 I shouldn't be ridiculed when I make a post about cool 850mb temps on day 6. All the models have it and it's well advertised. That's my main point. It always seems as if every single one of my posts is heavily scrutinized. Now later Bluewave will post a day 7 map of the Euro ensemble mean and nobody will bat an eyelash. It's pretty simple..bluewave is very well respected and you are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 The 12z ECMWF has 2M temps in the upper 40's from NYC N & W with showery, rainy weather for Monday afternoon.i see mid 50s on earthsat maps for 18z monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 i see mid 50s on earthsat maps for 18z mondayLook at 00z. Temps drop. Warmer along the coast naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Look at 00z. Temps drop. Warmer along the coast naturally. 00z is 8pm EDT, so... not afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 00z is 8pm EDT, so... not afternoon?Well we can't look at temps between 2 and 8pm. We can only see how they drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 NYC temp Monday at 18z is 52 degrees. At 0z, it's the exact same 52 degrees. In fact, the temp hovers at 51-53 degrees for 24 hours straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 .HYDROLOGY...THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGEFRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS OUR AREA AS A POTENT 850-925 MB SOUTHERLY JET MOVES THROUGH. THE MODEL GUIDANCEINDICATES A RAPID INCREASE IN 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION, HOWEVER THISIS GENERALLY WITHIN IN A NARROW CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION THE 850 MBTEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT +10C AHEAD OF THEFRONT, WHICH IS TYPICALLY A SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE ENHANCEDLIFT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL JET, THETA-E AND THERMAL RIDGES SHOULDRESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDEDTHUNDER. IT IS PROBABLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURSOVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OCCURSBETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ISBETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR A 3 AND 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OFSOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTENDINGNORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS OF NOW, AGENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSSTHE REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, WITH THEBEST CHC FOR HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THECWA DUE TO SOME ASSISTANCE BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT /SOUTHEASTERLYINFLOW/. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NO ISSUES,HOWEVER SOME SMALL STREAM /ESPECIALLY THE FAST RESPONDERS/ AND URBANRELATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IFBURSTS OF RAIN OCCUR IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. WHILE THETHREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BENEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY IF ENHANCED RAINFALLAMOUNTS/RATES LOOK TO OCCUR IN AN EVEN SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. ASOF NOW, WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 NASTY http://www.weather.gov/marfc/FOP http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/goes-west_goes-east/geir404.gif http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm1&zoom=&time http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Had a nice downpour roll thru around 8 dropped .35" in 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 There might be quite a bit of rain in some of the upslope areas in central and eastern PA, even N NJ and NY. The SE flow out ahead of the front will ride up the slopes of the mountains and aid in heavy rain amounts. I think 2-4" of rain if not more is a good bet in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 WPC has reduced the qpf for this event in most of the immediate Metro NYC- the heaviest rain just north and west http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 WPC has reduced the qpf for this event in most of the immediate Metro NYC- the heaviest rain just north and west http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif 0z Euro has .40" today and .60" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 0z Euro has .40" today and .60" tomorrow. WPC was discounting the lower EURO totals just 24 hours ago BUT now they definetly have to be considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 WPC was discounting the lower EURO totals just 24 hours ago BUT now they definetly have to be considered If what's going on today over the Carolina's is any indication of what we can expect we're in for a deluge. 06z NAM only had 1.50"-2.00" and many areas are already at 2"+ as estimated by radar. One hour estimates are 2-4" per hour in spots east of Columbia this morning. This has flash flooding potential written all over it. Hence why Mt. Holly has issued a flash flood watch for most of its zones away from the coast. Flash Flood WatchFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ356 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-152030-/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0002.140516T1200Z-140517T0600Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN356 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATEFRIDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE... NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY... CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX... MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM AND SOMERSET. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...EASTERN CHESTER...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...LOWER BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA...UPPER BUCKS... WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS AND ALSO IN URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD OR LESS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEADTO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTIONSHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 1.30 inches of rain at Charlotte airport from 6-9 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 where the heaviest rain stalls out from the retrograding WAR is where folks will get hammered. Looks to be west of the Delaware River IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 nyc will be lucky to exceed 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 09z SREF's are fairly dry now south and east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 there's only one sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 there's only one sref Well to be fair, he used it as a possesive (SREF's). not that the sentence makes any sense given that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 09z SREF's are fairly dry now south and east of NYC I would be careful of using the SREF beyond 48 hours, it is like a clown car full of NAM models and how much do people trust the NAM beyond 48hr. Furthermore at this range the individual models within the SREF are susceptible to being overly convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 I would be careful of using the SREF beyond 48 hours, it is like a clown car full of NAM models and how much do people trust the NAM beyond 48hr. Furthermore at this range the individual models within the SREF tend to be susceptible to being overly convective. Beyond 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Beyond 48 hours? He posted a QPF map through 75 hours and yes the majority falls before 48 hours but there is add on after 48 hours and with a large upper low the individual SREF members are going to have a hard time picking up on what locations might see enhanced rainfall with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 He posted a QPF map through 75 hours. Yes but all of the rain falls in the first 48 hours or less. I thought that was understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Yes but all of the rain falls in the first 48 hours or less. I thought that was understood. Yeah I edited my post to clarify, as it stands though the individual members still tend to be overly convective in situations like this as you can see some are showing 4-6" over the mountains for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Yeah I edited my post to clarify, as it stands though the individual members still tend to be overly convective in situations like this as you can see some are showing 4-6" over the mountains for example. Understood. What I don't understand is why just about all the models are weakening the convection as it approaches the region. RH and VVEL are through the roof so to speak and the LLJ looks favorable for moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Understood. What I don't understand is why just about all the models are weakening the convection as it approaches the region. RH and VVEL are through the roof so to speak and the LLJ looks favorable for moisture transport. BC it runs into the ridge in the Atlantic which is pushin west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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