IsentropicLift Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Best chance at any tropical connection would be Friday. GGEM still honking. That's 6 runs in a row now and the 12z GFS now has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 The weather channel just mentioned it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Could produce a ton of rain but nothing really tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Our possible storm is currently producing some pretty hefty rain amounts in the eastern Caribbean. Some places in NE Puerto Rico have seen >7" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 the stronger trend with the west atlantic ridge might mean we get fringed while the heaviest rain sets up west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 the stronger trend with the west atlantic ridge might mean we get fringed while the heaviest rain sets up west of us Yup, getting hurt by the blocking being too strong. Then the ULL eventually weakens and lifts northward, although some differences exist as to what eventually happens with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Seems that historically, models almost always underestimate the Atlantic ridge when it flexes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 All I can say is that this is still a day 3-4 storm. On some models it's almost a day 5 storm. When do the models ever have the axis of heaviest precipitation nailed down at this range? Certainly if this was a snowstorm people would be marching to the beat of a different drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 12z NAM has about 0.175" falling by 12z Friday morning and it's noticeably wetter over western PA which correlates well with the uptick on the latest SREF's. The 1"+ line is almost into NYC by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 12z NAM has about 0.175" falling by 12z Friday morning and it's noticeably wetter over western PA which correlates well with the uptick on the latest SREF's. The 1"+ line is almost into NYC by 00z. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 ? Why the question mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 .175 or 1.75? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 All I can say is that this is still a day 3-4 storm. On some models it's almost a day 5 storm. When do the models ever have the axis of heaviest precipitation nailed down at this range? Certainly if this was a snowstorm people would be marching to the beat of a different drum. We'll still see heavy rains as the system moves through our area, but the jackpot looks to be west due to the stronger ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 .175 or 1.75? 0.175". At hour 84 the NAM still has the low to our south with ongoing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 We'll still see heavy rains as the system moves through our area, but the jackpot looks to be west due to the stronger ridge. One GEFS ensemble member gives me 8" of rain but must members are around 2.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 One GEFS ensemble member gives me 8" of rain but must members are around 2.25". The mean is a good soaker for the whole area but hits western areas hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 any further push west and we may not see much especially NYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 0.175". At hour 84 the NAM still has the low to our south with ongoing rain. KNYC looks close to .4 at 12z FRI on the NAM to me . Not sure where .175 falls . Where were you referring too ? Maybe my maps are off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 The mean is a good soaker for the whole area but hits western areas hardest. gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_20.png Well on the latest update the one member showing 8" which was obviously overdone is gone. Still a fairly good spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 KNYC looks close to .4 at 12z FRI on the NAM to me . Not sure where .175 falls . Where were you referring too ? Maybe my maps are off I was showing between 0.10" and 0.25" having fallen so the mean is 0.175". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 The 12z GFS is pretty meh. We run the risk of being too close to the center of low pressure as well. Unless the low remains very weak their is going to be some subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Looks like the doom and gloom week is going down the tubes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Looks like the doom and gloom week is going down the tubes The cutoff low is still there, where is your warmth? Nowhere to be found. The 12z GFS even gets some precip in here on Monday night with 850's below freezing in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 The cutoff low is still there, where is your warmth? Nowhere to be found. The 12z GFS even gets some precip in here on Monday night with 850's below freezing in NJ. Yesterday was in the 80's and today 60's and sun. Where is all this rain you promised? And temps in the 50's? Euro dry slots Friday and Thursday will be warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 This a typical NJ-west storm with precip amounts more than double what we will average during this storm. After this still doesnt look like their will be any established heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Yesterday was in the 80's and today 60's and sun. Where is all this rain you promised? And temps in the 50's? Euro dry slots Friday and Thursday will be warm.. When did I promise lots of rain? Please enlighten me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 The cutoff low is still there, where is your warmth? Nowhere to be found. The 12z GFS even gets some precip in here on Monday night with 850's below freezing in NJ. Nowhere to be found? It's in the 80s just a couple hundred miles south. It's beautiful outside right now, upper 60s and sun. Sorry it can't be miserable for you though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Nowhere to be found? It's in the 80s just a couple hundred miles south. It's beautiful outside right now, upper 60s and sun. Sorry it can't be miserable for you though! You need to stop letting the fact that you don't like me clog your judgment. It's May, ooooh there are 80's in Virginia, shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 And for the last time, I don't freakin enjoy miserable weather. Heavy rain or nothing. The rest is just out of spite since AllSnow feels the need to continue bashing me even though he canceled his storm vista membership months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 You need to stop letting the fact that you don't like me clog your judgment. It's May, ooooh there are 80's in Virginia, shocker. I think you need to review what you post sometimes. It's May, there's plenty of warmth to be found. Join us in reality please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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