Rjay Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 It's not that he likes rain, it's the fact he compared a historic wet month here to this month with no reasoning Fair enough. I cringed when I read that. No defending that. And my response was in response to Keith's post, not yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I had a bad feeling that the pattern this Spring would revert to this crap. +NAO patterns eventually reverse into -NAO patterns, backdoor season always hits one way or the other, and progressive patterns eventually revert to cut-off bowling ball buzzkillers that linger for days. The immediate coast's sub-70 streak may continue after all. Does that means we could have our fifth consecutive below average month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I love reading true scientific insight on here rather than embellished ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Sometimes I get so wound up on here that I allow it to cloud my judgement. Sorry. I would hope that a majority of posters here think I make positive contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Up here of course. But down south specifically in and around the Gulf Stream no. I wouldn't e surprised to see extra trop storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Up here of course. But down south specifically in and around the Gulf Stream no. I wouldn't e surprised to see extra trop storm [/quote And there is the Gulf Stream Although we had a cold winter and thus current cold coastal water temps the stream be running hot! If it weren't for the possible El Niño I would think we would have a shot at a major hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 No thank you. Don't want any major hurricanes up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Had 21.53 in. here during Aug. of 2011 with over 25 inches during a 30 day period into early Sept. I didn't have that much in just the 30 day period but if I throw the whole month of Sept in there I had 27.55" for those two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 The CMC charts are unusable since they didn't fix the phantom tropical cyclone spin up problem yet with that model. It's much better to rely on the Euro and GFS OP's and ensembles for any systems with tropical or subtropical moisture involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The CMC charts are unusable since they didn't fix the phantom tropical cyclone spin up problem yet with that model. It's much better to rely on the Euro and GFS OP's and ensembles for any systems with tropical or subtropical moisture involved. Well the storm exists on the GFS and ECMWF also, just not as strong or organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 Well the storm exists on the GFS and ECMWF also, just not as strong or organized. The reason it's not as strong is that those models don't have the feedback problem. The CMC is making it a strong tropical cyclone incorrectly, while the GFS and Euro have a low with subtropical characteristics with much higher pressure. I hope the next CMC upgrade will address that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The reason it's not as strong is that those models don't have the feedback problem. The CMC is making it a strong tropical cyclone incorrectly, while the GFS and Euro have a low with subtropical characteristics with much higher pressure. I hope the next CMC upgrade will address that issue. GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif GZ_PN_216_0000.gif That GGEM image was from 12z. Here is the 00z image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 So looks like I am going to get screwed on the $600 I fronted for tickets for next Saturday's Yankee game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 So looks like I am going to get screwed on the $600 I fronted for tickets for next Saturday's Yankee game.... IMO you already got screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 So looks like I am going to get screwed on the $600 I fronted for tickets for next Saturday's Yankee game.... A lot can change bud between now and then. The 06z GFS is wet for that day too but from a completely different system than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 That GGEM image was from 12z. Here is the 00z image. That's to show that as we get closer the GGEM will back off the strength and come into line with the Euro and GFS and not a a full bird cat 1 hurricane roaring up the coast like it was showing yesterday. Feedback problems are really bad longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The strong WAR and favorable MJO, implies at least a stalled frontal boundary with waves along it, middle to late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 That's to show that as we get closer the GGEM will back off the strength and come into line with the Euro and GFS and not a a full bird cat 1 hurricane roaring up the coast like it was showing yesterday. Feedback problems are really bad longer range. Just to make it clear I don't disagree. But I don't think it's totally off the wall to consider some type of sub-tropical low coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 Just to make it clear I don't disagree. But I don't think it's totally off the wall to consider some type of sub-tropical low coming up the coast. It's not off the wall for a low with subtropical characteristics since that's what the Euro and GFS have been indicating for several days now. The area of moisture is originating over the Caribbean now which can lead to a very wet interaction with the stalled out front later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 12z GGEM refusing to backdown, now landfall into Georgia on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I always thought it was universally accepted that the Canadian is the last model you'd want to reference wrt anything out of the tropics. Not sure why it keeps getting posted except as a filler between more worthwhile guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I always thought it was universally accepted that the Canadian is the last model you'd want to reference wrt anything out of the tropics. Not sure why it keeps getting posted except as a filler between more worthwhile guidance. consider the source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 consider the source It's on the Euro, that makes it 100% likely. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014050912®ion=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 DGEX is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The DGEX and the Canadian are terrible tropical models, both are extremely notorious for spinning up phantom storms. I would take what they showed with high skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 you speak to me as if I didn't already know that. Funny how you didn't criticize Typhoon Tip for posting that in New England. I speak in generalities in here, I didn't mention you or your name. As for Tip, no comment there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I speak in generalities in here, I didn't mention you or your name. As for Tip, no comment there.I would hope nearly everyone here knows that the DGEX is a terrible model, but like everything else it has its uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I would hope nearly everyone here knows that the DGEX is a terrible model, but like everything else it has its uses. Honestly I would say it doesn't have a use other than to glance at. I mean an 84 hour NAM map is handled with high skepticism and rightfully so and the DGEX is just an extension of the NAM. I mean at that point you inputting the closest thing to useless model data into another model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 The Euro would wring out quite a bit of moisture in portions of the East if that weak subtropical low/wave phases with the trough like it's showing. The models keep hitting the block harder so any moisture starting out over the Caribbean has to get drawn into the trough. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014050912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 The weather stations are starting to mention about the possibility of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.