Weathergun Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 The best forcing is to the north for now. 700mb jet streak is lifting into Central NY. Where a thin has squall line has formed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Expect bulk of the heavy action to remain N&W of the NYC area. May see an inch of rain from NYC on east but as i said N&W especially from the PA/NJ border to orange county N&W they look to be in line for the heaviest rainfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 4:21 PM, Weathergun said: The best forcing is to the north for now. 700mb jet streak is lifting into Central NY. Where a thin has squall line has formed: Agreed, the NAM and GFS have the 700mb jet re intensifying between 00z and 06z which is in time to hit eastern areas. I just don't buy the QPF output given downstream radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 4:26 PM, IsentropicLift said: Agreed, the NAM and GFS have the 700mb jet re intensifying between 00z and 06z which is in time to hit eastern areas. I just don't buy the QPF output given downstream radar presentation. all depends how much progress the line makes it east as you can see most areas west of harrisburg are dry already http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 4:43 PM, NEG NAO said: all depends how much progress the line makes it east as you can see most areas west of harrisburg are dry already http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html The convection coming through the Delmarva region will impact the region tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Yankees/Pirates game has been rained out! FWIW raining moderately with gusty winds here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:01 PM, IsentropicLift said: Yankees/Pirates game has been rained out! FWIW raining moderately with gusty winds here in Ramsey. MLB Network was pumping up that game all week. "Two centerfielders.... both 5-tool players..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:07 PM, pazzo83 said: MLB Network was pumping up that game all week. "Two centerfielders.... both 5-tool players..." They are going to play a single admission double header on Sunday. Nice little JP for anyone with tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:10 PM, IsentropicLift said: They are going to play a single admission double header on Saturday. Nice little JP for anyone with tickets. Those are rare these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:12 PM, Brian5671 said: Those are rare these days. Yes very rare, I think they are doing it that way because of the quick turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 4:45 PM, IsentropicLift said: The convection coming through the Delmarva region will impact the region tonight. It will likely impact eastern and northern sections more. LI, CT and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 hmm looks like a dryslot to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 4:26 PM, REDMK6GLI said: Expect bulk of the heavy action to remain N&W of the NYC area. May see an inch of rain from NYC on east but as i said N&W especially from the PA/NJ border to orange county N&W they look to be in line for the heaviest rainfall amounts There is a 2nd vort max that models are picking up that will drop the heaviest rain over LI/CT. We'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:16 PM, ag3 said: It will likely impact eastern and northern sections more. LI, CT and SNE. We shall see about that, Mt. Holly has stated that the rain shield will likely stall as the last wave approaches the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:17 PM, ag3 said: There is a 2nd vort max that models are picking up that will drop the heaviest rain over LI/CT. We'll see how it plays out. Rgem also now does this. Similar to the HRRR, NAM and GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 With PWAT's now in excess of 1.6" for most of the area and 1.7" in parts any rain that falls has the potential to come down heavy, especially if any convection forms. SPC Mesoscale Analysis indicates a bit of SBCAPE over parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 radar doesn't look great now but there are some heavy showers hugging the coast heading to Long island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 6:34 PM, uncle W said: radar doesn't look great now but there are some heavy showers hugging the coast heading to Long island... breaking up over NJ just as modeling showed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 HRRR blasts NE NJ, NYC and LHV between 8-11PM. Other than that looks like scattered thunderstorms. Spits out locally as much as 3" over Bergan and Rockland Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 The activity near ACY is intensifying some. Pockets of estimated 1"+ per hour rates starting to show up. The jury is still out on where that's going to hit. Could come directly up the coast as 500/850mb winds are still out of the SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 To me it just doesn't look favorable for heavy rain west of the GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 The writing was on the wall yesterday when the models began speeding up the progression of the front. Still we have some time to see how exactly things are going to play out but it doesn't look at least at the moment like anyone is going to eclipse forecasted totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 7:23 PM, IsentropicLift said: The writing was on the wall yesterday when the models began speeding up the progression of the front. Still we have some time to see how exactly things are going to play out but it doesn't look at least at the moment like anyone is going to eclipse forecasted totals. and many might not even get to forecasted totals...really falling apart on radar-looked really impressive just 6 hours ago, but models were right to key on Central PA and NY. Remains to be seem whether CT and LI jackpot tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 7:47 PM, Allsnow said: Bust most forecasts had us raining all day here--oops. 3:45 and yet to see a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 7:41 PM, Jamal Smith said: i Aint meen to cause no offense but i call it like i see it. u guyz r usually prity good but this forcast was a craplog Obviously you have little to no understanding on this. Can you forecast better? Probably not. It happens and won't be the last time either. Not a way to chime in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 7:47 PM, Allsnow said: Bust Great analysis as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 5:01 PM, IsentropicLift said: Yankees/Pirates game has been rained out! FWIW raining moderately with gusty winds here in Ramsey. they probably would have been able to get the game in tonight - the way the radar looks now - the reason it is a single admission double header sunday is they are probably not allowed to schedule a game at night because of sunday night baseball and ESPN - and saturday's game is at 4:05 so they didn't want to be playing 3 games in a less ten 24 hour period - those old guys on the Yankees would take a week to recover from that one - the way it stands now they will be playing close to that time period - 3 games - not good for an old team like the Yankees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 8:24 PM, NEG NAO said: they probably would have been able to get the game in tonight - the way the radar looks now - the reason it is a single admission double header sunday is they are probably not allowed to schedule a game at night because of sunday night baseball and ESPN - and saturday's game is at 4:05 so they didn't want to be playing 3 games in a less ten 24 hour period - those old guys on the Yankees would take a week to recover from that one - the way it stands now they will be playing close to that time period - 3 games - not good for an old team like the Yankees Someone's head is rolling for this one...loss of revenue over a rainout called too early...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 16, 2014 Share Posted May 16, 2014 On 5/16/2014 at 8:39 PM, Brian5671 said: Someone's head is rolling for this one...loss of revenue over a rainout called too early...ouch If George was still around there would have been alot of heads rolling by now the way they have played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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