MnWx_88 Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 New day 2 outlook. 30% hatched for the southern half of Minnesota, extreme West-Central Wisconsin, and Northern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Still like western Iowa/far eastern Nebraska for tomorrow. Think SPC needs to bump the western edge of their higher probs a tad to the west. Euro and GFS still worlds apart for the Sun/Mon period. Euro still showing a setup over southern Iowa/Missouri for Sunday, and another further east over eastern Iowa/Illinois for Mon. GFS much more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 The 4km NAM and WRF-NNM both blow up convection over the eastern half of Iowa tomorrow afternoon and move it into IL early evening. Decent instability and respectable shear out ahead of that so things may get a little more interesting than I had previously thought further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 SPC goes moderate risk for parts of IA/MN on new day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 SPC goes moderate risk for parts of IA/MN on new day 1. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2014 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO SCNTRL TX... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. ...MINNESOTA/IOWA... UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 75KT AT 500 MB...EJECTS ACROSS KS INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 08/21Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOURAGE LEE LOW TO TRACK NEWD TO A POSITION JUST SW OF SUX PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING BREACHED AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE UVV NECESSARY FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE EXPECTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN MN/WRN IA. LATEST THINKING IS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY SURGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO WRN IA AS SFC LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE MO RIVER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO MAX HEATING. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 20-21Z. WITH LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO SRN MN AMPLE BUOYANCY WILL EXIST FOR ROBUST SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN IA WHERE SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 60KT. SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION THEN TRACK NEWD TOWARD A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN MN. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA. ...KS/MO...SWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SCNTRL TX... LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ONE OR MORE BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AT 06Z THIS MORNING THIS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MATURING ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR MAF. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD AND SHOULD BE EAST OF 100 LON BY SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES DOWNSTREAM...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD PROPAGATION DURING THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY CONVECTION STRONG HEATING WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS WESTERN TX/OK AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT OVER KS BY 09/00Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW/MEAD.. 05/08/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 13z outlook brought the 10% tornado area into more of IA and clipping part of extreme western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 13z outlook brought the 10% tornado area into more of IA and clipping part of extreme western WI. 13Z outlook giveth and the 1630Z taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Just for the sake of consolidation... the mod risk is technically in the central/western forum's domain, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Just for the sake of consolidation... the mod risk is technically in the central/western forum's domain, correct? yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 If I can just get get some sunshine this afternoon........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 If I can just get get some sunshine this afternoon........ From the looks of radar and satellite off to our sw we may just get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Random T-storm warning just went up here. Not even seeing any lighting detected. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Random T-storm warning just went up here. Not even seeing any lighting detected. Interesting. Little guy packed a punch. There was a tiny area of enhanced inbounds on the velo scan than pretty much passed right over head. Gusted around 50mph I'd guess. Lotta people caught off-guard outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 sun to the west and towering CU over the lake...best climo good luck to those in the hunt later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 If I can just get get some sunshine this afternoon........ Yesterday kinda underperformed...was wondering if there might be some carryover effects into today (in a positive way). Some nice clearing spreading eastward so we'll see if it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 141 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 230 PM CDT. * AT 140 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM DOWNED TREES IN BREWER MISSOURI. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 141 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 230 PM CDT. * AT 140 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM DOWNED TREES IN BREWER MISSOURI. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. That's a nasty looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Getting some sun here and modest if not decent instability building but in not sure how much will be able to fire around here. Low level convergence looks unimpressive and no real sign of anything trying to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 228 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT. * AT 227 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... SHOOK AROUND 245 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Tornado warned storm in se MO. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY228 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.* AT 227 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSVILLE...AND MOVINGEAST AT 50 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...SHOOK AROUND 245 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 New watch shortly for IN/KY. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0235 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...CNTRL AND SRN IL...IND...WRN ANDCNTRL KYCONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135...VALID 091935Z - 092130ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135CONTINUES.SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOINCREASE WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW SEVERE WEATHERWATCH EAST OF WW 135 WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER OHIOVALLEY WITH INSOLATION. DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERNMISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF INDIANA ANDWESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 22-23Z WILL BE AUGMENTED BYMID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A WEAKENING500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. NEW STORMDEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR DECATURIL...AND MOST INTENSE CURRENT STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUETRACKING EAST OF THE CARBONDALE IL AREA...INTO THE VICINITY OFEVANSVILLE BY AROUND 21Z...AND EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH SHORTLYTHEREAFTER. FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO AN ORGANIZINGMESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WINDPOTENTIAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-50+ KT WESTERLY LOWER/MIDTROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH PEAK LATEAFTERNOON HEATING...KERR/MEAD.. 05/09/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Nice little wind damage swath through MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 257 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... NORTH CENTRAL STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 254 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHOOK...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ADVANCE AROUND 320 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ZALMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 There's a thin area roughly between IND and LAF oriented SW to NE between the two convective areas thats been getting some good heating the last few hours. Throw some outflow boundaries in there and might get a few nice pearls popping in the next hour or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Just noticed this http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=102183&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Just noticed this http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=102183&source=2 Wow some crazy stats right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Wow some crazy stats right there Basically like having a 3-4 mile wide EF0-EF2 tornado. GIven that it went through some populated areas (namely Evansville), fortunate there weren't any injuries/fatalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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