andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Some very nice soundings coming out of central MN on the 00z NAM for tomorrow evening. It shows a nice dry punch aloft coming in behind the morning convection through the afternoon with steep mid level lapse rates near the triple point in addition to a strong upper level jet with its left entrance region plowing right over top, really textbook for this type of setup. 21z SREF looking more impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Some very nice soundings coming out of central MN on the 00z NAM for tomorrow evening. It shows a nice dry punch aloft coming in behind the morning convection through the afternoon with steep mid level lapse rates near the triple point in addition to a strong upper level jet with its left entrance region plowing right over top, really textbook for this type of setup. 21z SREF looking more impressive as well. Reminds me a bit of the 10/4/13 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Reminds me a bit of the 10/4/13 setup. I'm not sure it is quite as classic of a setup as that was (mainly due to the more meridional upper jet this time and questions about the overall wind fields/leftover convection), but the threat for supercells perhaps in an arching line tomorrow evening near the surface low does appear to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I'm not sure it is quite as classic of a setup as that was (mainly due to the more meridional upper jet this time and questions about the overall wind fields/leftover convection), but the threat for supercells perhaps in an arching line tomorrow evening near the surface low does appear to be there. What are your thoughts on the southern portion? Is the SREF too bullish for OK/TX? Early convection seems to be the main issue, is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 What are your thoughts on the southern portion? Is the SREF too bullish for OK/TX? Early convection seems to be the main issue, is it not? The northern target certainly appears to be the one of choice, I could see a few storms of interest down the dryline, but in terms of intensity and tornado potential, the triple point has it for this one. Early convection is definitely a concern as well for southern areas, likely more so than further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Listening to radio traffic into WFO OUN, several reports of golf ball sized hail being wind driven that is destroying car and home windows from the storm near Minco, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Yes, I have a large VIL spike on that cell with a very deep hail core with >70 dbz echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Well, they are getting some much needed rain in the OKC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Fierce supercell on top of OKC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Judging from the TDWR loop, I wouldn't be shocked if they had a weak tornado right near KOKC 15 min ago or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Looks like a mod risk for southern MN and much of Iowa. 10% hatched tornado area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Judging from the TDWR loop, I wouldn't be shocked if they had a weak tornado right near KOKC 15 min ago or so. Mmm. There was a brief TVS detected from what I briefly glimpsed. Also got 1.75" hail reported at the airport - yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Mmm. There was a brief TVS detected from what I briefly glimpsed. Also got 1.75" hail reported at the airport - yikes! I count at least 6 TDWR scans with a pretty tight couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 OUN has made it clear over the past few months that they don't plan on issuing Tornado Warnings for brief, weak spin ups in most circumstances after the events of last year. Whether or not that's the correct policy is up for debate. Only report I saw was a few power flashes in Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgidd8 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 It seems pretty ridiculous a warning wasn't issued once that rotation looked to have tightened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Moderate Risk is now out for the upper mississippi valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 00z SPC WRF is going pretty gangbusters tomorrow in MN and IA with multiple cells with intense UH through the late afternoon/evening. NSSL WRF has a big cell moving from SE MN into WI around 22-01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I'll just leave this here, 06z NAM sounding in South Central MN for 00z Friday, using MLCAPE...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Does anyone have an eye on Sunday yet as well? Near Sedalia, MO at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Where do Minnesota tornado watches go, sub-forum wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Where do Minnesota tornado watches go, sub-forum wise? Here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Impressive VWP from MPX, I'm a bit surprised the watch probabilities are only 50/20 on that tornado watch although it appears the early convection is a bit widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 SRSO action: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20140508&endtime=latest&nframes=30&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 SRSO action: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20140508&endtime=latest&nframes=30&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550 As advertised, nice dry punch aloft in the wake of the earlier convection with 7-8 C/km mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 18z sounding from MPX (obviously low instability due to ongoing convection, but a nice wind profile). 18z OAX sounding samples the thermodynamic environment a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Almost went out on a solo chase to IA/MN this morning, but decided against it for several reasons. Threat is fairly conditional now, and will be focused on a much smaller area. The combination of overnight/morning clouds/showers and re-development of storms late this morning and afternoon will likely limit the threat overall. Instead of likely seeing a good threat and an arc of sups from the SLP down to the IA/MO border, which once looked possible last night...The more likely scenario now is a few cells near the SLP that hold potential for a relatively short time, with the main threat being in a small area in extreme NW. IA and far SW. MN. And I'm not even sold on that at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Looking west in Rock Valley (Sioux County, IA), not chasing today though. The high tops in the distance are from the cells from about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 And the first TW of the day is for Dallas? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Severe warned cell near Sioux Falls looks pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 And the first TW of the day is for Dallas? lol Not warned, but Johnson County EM reporting mobil homes destroyed by that cell in Joshua, TX. Probably just straight line winds, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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