chase_stormz Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 It does however have somewhat of a low level jet. The key to Saturday would be small mesoscale details such as an OFB to watch for convective initiation etc... I'm keeping an eye on Sat, but it's hard to get real excited about it at this point. As you mention, the low level winds are kind of meager. Especially with what the GFS is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 several severe storms may develop by late afternoon, from Greeley CO to central Nebraska Woohoo. First watch of the year! ---- THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTHWEST KANSAS WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST WYOMING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWx_88 Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 New day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Dryline may be initiating rather early North of Abilene/SSW of SPS. Discussion of left splitters makes me wonder if SPS may get some needed rain, and not quite so needed large hail, later this afternoon. Edit to add- SPC doesn't miss much, this MCD was issued BEFORE I posted... Cell mentioned above looks like it is still struggling a bit on radar... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SW OK...NW TX...TX ROLLING PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 071854Z - 072000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE FROM SW OK SWWD INTO TX ROLLING PLAINS. ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING AS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST PAST 00Z. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IS GENERALLY DEMARCATED BY THE 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM WITH THE SECONDARY DRYLINE DEMARCATED BY THE 45 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM. THERE WAS AN ATTEMPT AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE PRIMARY DRYLINE IN THROCKMORTON COUNTY TX. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED...SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IN THAT AREA IS NOT YET SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. DEEPENING CU IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF BOTH DRYLINES WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG EITHER THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL FROM SW OK SWWD THROUGH THE TX ROLLING PLAINS. SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 3000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED CHARACTER OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION. LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH THE LEFT AND RIGHT MOVERS CAPABLE OF SVR. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW INITIALLY. WITH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS STORMS PERSIST PAST 00Z AS OVERALL SHEAR INCREASES BEFORE NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING. ..MOSIER/HART.. 05/07/2014 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 perhaps some chase-able supercells are developing 25miles+ southeast of DIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I'm keeping an eye on Sat, but it's hard to get real excited about it at this point. As you mention, the low level winds are kind of meager. Especially with what the GFS is forecasting. The Saturday setup is interesting, these low amplitude waves can be quite productive this time of year, especially given sufficient instability and a breakable cap. Also the GFS is forecasting 35-40 kt 850 mb winds by 00z, which is plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 The Saturday setup is interesting, these low amplitude waves can be quite productive this time of year, especially given sufficient instability and a breakable cap. Also the GFS is forecasting 35-40 kt 850 mb winds by 00z, which is plenty. I agree. I've definitely got my eye on Saturday as it holds some potential. You've got to love big CAPE days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Kamay, Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Probably some great structure on the cell SW of SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 SREF growing a bit more favorable for the triple point. Discussion from MPX for tomorrow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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 SREF growing a bit more favorable for the triple point. Discussion from MPX for tomorrow. That's a big bump...the previous run only had 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 The synoptic setup is a bit reminiscent of 5/10/53, especially in terms of surface low position/strength. The trough involved in that event was stronger, but this setup has higher dewpoints to work with from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Storm SE of Wichita Falls, TX could drop a rope at any moment. Already large hail producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Several landspouts and rope tornadoes reported with the tor warned activity near the Akron/Holyoke, CO area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Several landspouts and rope tornadoes reported with the tor warned activity near the Akron/Holyoke, CO area. Two strong rotations from KGLD there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Colorado storm has produced a tornado. TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking 5m Another angle of #tornado near Akron, CO around 4:30p MDT - this one via @TorChaser18 (Eric Kelly/@SevereStudios) pic.twitter.com/c3ajfsi00D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 The cell East of Vernon also looks to be developing some nice rotation. Wouldn't be surprised to see a rope or landspout with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Excellent wall cloud on the Wichita Falls storm. Velocity getting better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Very nice, low base via the TX Storm Raiders stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 What an absolute beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 What an absolute beauty. Yeah that cam really caught my eye. What beautiful structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 This storm could use a TOR warning IMHO. Henrietta is a decent sized town for being in the middle of no where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 This storm could use a TOR warning IMHO. Henrietta is a decent sized town for being in the middle of no where. Rotation is still pretty broad in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Got a tornado warning for the cell near Bookburnett, TX. Also another robust looking cell starting to move northeast up I-44. Edit: Tornado warning for that cell now too. KWTV is live. http://www.news9.com/category/184600/severe-weather-embedded-live-stream-kwtv1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Got a tornado warning for the cell near Bookburnett, TX. Also another robust looking cell starting to move northeast up I-44. Edit: Tornado warning for that cell now too. KWTV is live. http://www.news9.com/category/184600/severe-weather-embedded-live-stream-kwtv1 Really nice in close example of how the RFD is involved with tornadogenesis. The anticyclonic pendant shows nice evidence of a RFD wrapping around back to the north and helping to spin up the low level meso. Next volume scan the RFD cuts off the inflow and it looks like the tornado quickly occluded. Now it's trying to develop a new meso to the SE of the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Nice wall cloud on the cell near Apache with rising scud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 my buddy lives between moore and norman OK. hes preparing his storm shelter now. the cell to the SW has a tornado and is being tracked by reed timmer according to him. just like that though rotation is weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 That's an impressive looking cell up in NE with a tornado warning near Lexington, I know the HRRR was putting out an isolated cell with high UH in that area around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Cell west of Waurika is a monster. Broad rotation and large hail producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 That cell up in NE has quite an intense meso and the one along the Red River's hail core is stupid large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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