jaxjagman Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 If the HRRR is any where right it should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF AL...TN...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...272... VALID 100317Z - 100445Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...272...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG A BULGING QLCS EVOLVING EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. DISCUSSION...5-9 KM MSL CAPPI REFLECTIVITY HAVE SAMPLED GRADUALLY DIMINISHING VALUES ALONG THE QLCS THAT ARCS FROM MIDDLE TN TO N-CNTRL AND W-CNTRL AL. THIS WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE WHICH APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN PURELY ON MOMENTUM WITHIN A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z BNA RAOB. THIS TREND HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN INBOUND VELOCITIES WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO HOLD AOB 40 KT...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF TREE DAMAGE. FARTHER S...DEEPER /ALBEIT WEAKENING/ UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR/SW OF BHM. WITHIN A RESIDUAL WARMER AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 70S/...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG A NW/SE-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BAND AROUND 30 NE SEM. SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE AND EVEN MARGINAL HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS DESPITE LESS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 10, 2014 Author Share Posted June 10, 2014 Outflow boundary is noted south of the Tennessee border, running approximately east-west through Mississippi and Alabama. Blue line is above the surface, perhaps the 850 mb reflection. Surface OFB is the red line. Elevated thundershowers on the blue line are of little concern this morning. Look for the red surface OFB to lift north through the day. Any lone storms crossing it present a tornado risk. Otherwise if it stays a line, higher straight line winds are possible at that point. HRRR is not updating, but it had not been running well this morning. High-res NAM initialized this morning better at 00Z than 06Z or even 12Z, but all 3 are wrong in different ways, so let's do some fundamental meteorology. Line of thunderstorms refuses to break up so the 5% tornado may be going bye-bye at 1630. Looks good for high winds when things destabilize this afternoon. RAP actually doing okay with the sloppy evolution of the system. One could hope for a nice line echo wave pattern, a higher wind signature this afternoon, otherwise just some wind and summer storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Thanks for the analysis Jeff! I'm still shocked that a storm managed to actually roll through the central valley last night without being vaporized coming up I75. We got a nice hard rain, stout winds, and a crack or two of thunder. Seems like forever since we've had one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Severe Watch just issued: Things look pretty good for heavy rains and strong winds in the watch area. Maybe a tornado here or there like Jeff said. The bucket is still empty up here at the house. Maybe today will be the day to dent some of the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Just saw this on facebook from WxSouth. A very active day today and again tomorrow. The upper low will be pulling north soon, so the Gulf inflow will continue, piling up rain totals in mid Tenn. down through Alabama today, along with strong thunderstorms, especially eastern Alabama, TN, Georgia where conditions are sunnier and more instability. By tomorrow, this slides a little more east, still with a strong tap to the Gulf in the Florida panhandle, through most of Georgia and the Carolinas, with again the areas getting severe storms where there is the most daytime sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Just caught this tornado warning for DeKalb County, TN with a discrete cell that is ahead of the main line: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Just saw this on facebook from WxSouth. Thanks, Brick. NE TN needs to score on this or things are going to get too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Looks like a pretty stout line. It'll be interesting to see if it falls apart or weakens at the plateau like has been the case so often lately. Hopefully east TN can finagle a good frog strangler out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 A tree just fell on my house. Haven't been able to get outside to check the damage yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Up to 92 now. I think this line will make it all the way thru TN. Sorry to hear about that dwagner88. Hope everyone is okay and the damage is not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 A tree just fell on my house. Haven't been able to get outside to check the damage yet. That's not good,hope you don't have any damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 A tree just fell on my house. Haven't been able to get outside to check the damage yet. dwagner88, can we do anything to help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Sitting here w/ my fingers crossed hoping for a good downpour. One line crossing the I-81 to my south. Another line draped north to south going through Knoxville. Rain, baby, rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Just had a quick but INSANE hail storm roll through. It hailed for about 10 mins but the finale was golf ball sized hail for about 5 mins it did a number on my corn and stripped some leaves in the yard. The house appears to be ok and the cars were inside so no damage there. Had about a half inch of rain from it too. Sorry to hear about the tree Dwagner. Hope everyone else is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Nice thunder shower here in Kingsport. Much needed rain. Need a lot more. Hope everyone is safe out there. Some of those cells look pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 That line meant business here, wide spread tree damage and some areas still without power at 3 am. Picked up over an inch of rain too and had another moderate 30 minute shower about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Had a tree down in front of the neighborhood across the road....Hope dwagner is doing okay this morning... Less than half an inch at TYS and TRI....perhaps it will get better the next day or two but when it starts getting dry it seems everything that comes through underperforms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 Glad you are safe, but hope the damage is not too bad. Pls let us know. A tree just fell on my house. Haven't been able to get outside to check the damage yet. Impressive for the South: Do you have crop hail insurance? Just had a quick but INSANE hail storm roll through. It hailed for about 10 mins but the finale was golf ball sized hail for about 5 mins it did a number on my corn and stripped some leaves in the yard. The house appears to be ok and the cars were inside so no damage there. Had about a half inch of rain from it too. Sorry to hear about the tree Dwagner. Hope everyone else is ok Tell your neighbors not to fall for the hail salesman. Golfball and smaller does not damage roofs. Unless they needed a new roof anyway, lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 A tree just fell on my house. Haven't been able to get outside to check the damage yet. Well that sucks! Hopefully the damage wasn't too bad. Just had a quick but INSANE hail storm roll through. It hailed for about 10 mins but the finale was golf ball sized hail for about 5 mins it did a number on my corn and stripped some leaves in the yard. The house appears to be ok and the cars were inside so no damage there. Had about a half inch of rain from it too. Sorry to hear about the tree Dwagner. Hope everyone else is ok Sorry to hear about the corn, yikes! No hail at my place, just those wild wind gusts. It's times like that that I wish I had a weather station to see just how high they got. Trees were bending and I bracing for the neighbors' pine trees to snap and fall on my house. We got lucky, just lots of pine cones and needles flying sideways. Very happy to have the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 West Knoxville right before that wind monster hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Impressive for the South: Do you have crop hail insurance? Tell your neighbors not to fall for the hail salesman. Golfball and smaller does not damage roofs. Unless they needed a new roof anyway, lol.. Thanks for the replies guys. I just have a small garden plot, so no worries on the crop insurance. Roof appears to be ok as well so that's great news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 It just came a duck drowner at the house. Probably a quick half an inch. The storm is warned now and probably has hail in it now by looking at the DBZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 This is one of the reasons for the power outages here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Another small strip of storms has popped up and is training northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Thanks for the concern everyone. No roof damage! And it looks like we will be able to salvage the remainder of the tree with some cabling. I only need to cut the thing up and replace a 20' piece of gutter. Pretty lucky overall. The wind actually wasn't all that bad. The tree had been recently weakened and a crack had formed. I suspect this happened during that heavy wet snow back in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 dwagner88, strong work. Glad everything is OK... On the MRX site, they are reporting a twister yesterday near Kingston... Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 This is one of the reasons for the power outages here last night. lut.jpg Trampoline = Nature's Giant Frisbee....We had to go hunting for my neighbor's trampoline one time. Was three houses over, and it had been secured to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Just dang. I think the Kingston tornado must have gone RIGHT over my house last night. I knew the winds were at least 60 mph. Husband was standing on the porch telling me that he saw the winds briefly change direction while maintaining that speed and was freaked out by that. I was glued to Radarscope on my iPhone (I had left my laptop at work so didn't have my GRLevel2 software). I didn't see any rotation though. We are slightly northeast of Kingston, so from the description it sounds like it was in my backyard. Neighbors had big tree uprooted and about a quarter mile down the road I saw some trees that looked twisted. I will have to pay more attention on the drive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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