1234snow Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Tornado Watch has been issued until 9 pm for SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...OH/TN VALLEYS... EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND AT 19Z WAS LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THIS LOW HAD MOVED INTO SWRN OH TO WV...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD...WITH THE 19Z POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SRN IND/IL TO SOUTH OF STL IN MO. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE /PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.6 INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTING ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS STRUCTURES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO MUCH OF TN...THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SIGNIFICANT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING. TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SERN MO GIVEN GOOD HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES. ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE SLIGHT RISK AND ATTENDANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN MADE ACROSS SERN WY TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND THREATS INTO THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 800 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL 300 AM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS WEST VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 725 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014 TORNADO WATCH 223 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARC021-055-121-050800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/ AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY GREENE RANDOLPH ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-199- 050800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/ IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON KYC001-003-005-007-009-017-021-031-033-035-039-045-047-049-053- 055-057-061-067-073-075-079-083-085-087-097-099-103-105-107-113- 123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-155-157-167-169-171-177-179-181- 183-207-209-211-213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239- 050800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/ KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BALLARD BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLARK CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GARRARD GRAVES GRAYSON GREEN HARRISON HART HENRY HICKMAN HOPKINS JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MADISON MARION MARSHALL MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MERCER METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG NELSON NICHOLAS OHIO RUSSELL SCOTT SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TODD TRIGG UNION WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER WOODFORD MOC017-023-031-035-065-069-091-093-123-133-143-149-155-157-179- 181-201-203-207-215-223-229-050800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/ MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER DENT DUNKLIN HOWELL IRON MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON PEMISCOT PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY SCOTT SHANNON STODDARD TEXAS WAYNE WRIGHT TNC005-015-017-021-027-035-037-041-043-045-049-053-079-081-083- 085-087-095-111-125-131-133-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-183- 185-187-189-050800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/ TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM CLAY CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB DICKSON DYER FENTRESS GIBSON HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAKE MACON MONTGOMERY OBION OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE WEAKLEY WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 725 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHERN MISSOURI NORTHERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Radar is lit up like a Christmas tree. Storms moving ESE out of the Ohio valley... We are fortunate that they may lose some daytime heating. Unfortunate that people will be sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Possible multiple vortices near Earlington, KY or Mortons Gap, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Saw several minutes ago a spotter reported multiple vortices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I was playing golf this evening and I'm not sure if the cloud I saw was a wall cloud or just a shelf cloud. This structure was west of the main rain shaft as the storm was moving southeast. The whole base was rotating very slightly. As it passed over a lot of scud clouds formed making it look even more ominous. Any ideas as to which type of cloud this was? The pictures from my iPhone don't really do it justice. Anyway the storms this afternoon and evening have been more discrete than just forming into a MCS as Morristown and other models were showing. Afterwards the storm left a beautiful rainbow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 New tornado warning just west of West Liberty, Ky. They got hit by an EF3 in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 might be a wall cloud,definite looks like some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I was playing golf this evening and I'm not sure if the cloud I saw was a wall cloud or just a shelf cloud. This structure was west of the main rain shaft as the storm was moving southeast. The whole base was rotating very slightly. As it passed over a lot of scud clouds formed making it look even more ominous. Any ideas as to which type of cloud this was? The pictures from my iPhone don't really do it justice. Anyway the storms this afternoon and evening have been more discrete than just forming into a MCS as Morristown and other models were showing. Afterwards the storm left a beautiful rainbow... Post on MRX's FB page. They are pretty good at responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Post on MRX's FB page. They are pretty good at responding. I sent email WCYB an email and they said it did resemble a wall cloud and Morristown said that it was a hint of a wall cloud but it was hard to tell. They said if nothing else it was a rain-free base and indicated a inflow/updraft location. Very cool nonetheless. Meanwhile if the line of storms in West KY misses us another line of storms is forming further north which may hit us in the early morning hours. The threat is not over with yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Moderate risk just touching Memphis this afternoon...looks like a nasty MCS will come screaming through this afternoon....amazing how hard it is to get meaningful rainful into the northeast corner of TN this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Afterwards the storm left a beautiful rainbow: A DOUBLE RAINBOW!! WHAT DOES IT MEAN??!? My backyard somehow managed to dodge everything that came our way last night. We may have gotten a few drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I made a more detailed post in the Ohio Valley sub-forum, but I was positioned right in front of that cell near Morton's Gap and I can vouch for a rotating wall cloud. Whatever it was became rain-wrapped, but I wouldn't rule out it being a weak tornado at one point. Not a good area to chase or observe with such a high density of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Best rain we've had since late April this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Any thoughts on this business rolling through the state tonight? I'm camping up between Celina and Livingston and wondering if my camper will get blown away haha. Sounds like it'll hit here around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 Day 3 see text valid on Monday for the Mid South will become a slight risk tomorrow. If you believe the NAM/Euro it'll be a small MDT risk by Monday. We'll see what GFS does today. Unseasonably strong short-wave to eject from Texas into the Mid South on Monday. OFB will be in place ahead of any pre-frontal trough. I don't expect much trouble in eastern Tennessee; however, looks like a strong/severe storms day farther west in the heart of the Mid South and/or Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. Sorry I was off the board a lot for that great action June 4. I was on my way back from the Plains. We saw CG right in front of us down in deep south Illinois. It hit right next to the road. Smoldering hole left in some guy's yard. Did not wanna take pix but it was pretty wild. When we first approached it looked like when someone burns leaves. However, no leaf pile, raining very hard, and brown/black smoldering depression in grass. No tornado June 4, but that lightning strike was beyond incredible. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Anyone watching the middle-TN action today? I'm visiting Dickson this weekend, and we are about to get smacked again. The radar lineup is pretty impressive, particularly as the north side of the action passed Clarksville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 We like to welcome visitors with good storms! Saturday afternoon was my daughter's second birthday party so I was out of touch after my morning post. That little surprise was a classic outflow boundary sleeper set-up. Jet stream energy was meager but there was plenty down around 500 mb. Plus the jet stream was enough back where it initiated along the Mississippi River. Finally low level turning was enhanced on the outflow boundary. Saturday rocked! I still think Monday will go; and, Saturday was a kind of hint to be on the lookout. NAM wants to do bows/segments, but it has been stuck in that mode for a while. Perhaps summer climo? However we see how things want to start out as supercells as May type upper systems come through in June. Monday turning and speed shear with height will be excellent from surface to 500 mb; and, I expect plenty of outflow boundaries from weekend festivities. Only issue is veer-back up toward 200 mb along with lighter winds. OK/AR may be bogged down in previous convection issues. Personally I expect an outflow boundary to go, well east of that mess, in the Delta on Monday, tracking into the rest of the Mid South. June boom continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Pretty dry in the eastern Valley. Foothills is saying on FB that the pattern is going to change to more of trough in the east. NE TN is getting that bone dry feel to it again. Hope he is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 I made a more detailed post in the Ohio Valley sub-forum, but I was positioned right in front of that cell near Morton's Gap and I can vouch for a rotating wall cloud. Whatever it was became rain-wrapped, but I wouldn't rule out it being a weak tornado at one point. Not a good area to chase or observe with such a high density of trees. That is crazy. Glad you made it out in one piece! Thanks for stopping by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 It's getting ridiculous with the huge rain events in the western valley that just dry up as they reach here. My poor garden is suffering so much I'm thinking of running an irrigation ditch from the creek, but it's also barely trickling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 Just about time to rock and roll in Memphis and West Tenn. Severe bow echo coming out of Ark. Book-end of line on radar is appropriately warned tornado in east-central Ark. Outflow boundary remains in/near Memphis. OFB will help to focus energy and keep the line of storms quite intense. Should be mainly very high straight line winds; but, one might catch a brief spin-up in the Memphis metro and West Tenn. Be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Tomorrow looks like some wind and some decent rain as well.GFS 12Z SHOWS SOME LLJ 40-45's,with 2 pw's at BNA 21Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Managed a brief shower that lasted about 15 minutes and managed to tamp down some of the dust from the road that blows up here when cars pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 271NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK535 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 TORNADO WATCH 271 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THEFOLLOWING LOCATIONS TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-055-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-109-113-117-119-125-131-135-147-161-167-181-183-187-100600-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0271.140609T2235Z-140610T0600Z/ TN. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAMCHESTER CROCKETT DAVIDSONDECATUR DICKSON DYERFAYETTE GIBSON GILESHARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOODHENDERSON HENRY HICKMANHOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAKELAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEWISMADISON MARSHALL MAURYMCNAIRY MONTGOMERY OBIONPERRY ROBERTSON STEWARTTIPTON WAYNE WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 535 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 9, 2014 Author Share Posted June 9, 2014 Nearly east-west outflow OFB noted in West Tenn. Cells along it are starting to rotate. I'd have gone 50/20 or even 60/20 on the TOR probs. Oh but the high-res models have been choking; and, as the HRRR goes so the SPC goes. These models are suffering climatology bias, trying to depict a summer pattern with a spring strength short-wave. Mississippi cells are suspect too, but they don't have the low level turning of an OFB to work with; plus, not quite as much upstairs. That said, CAPE is high in Miss. Otherwise we have the big red bow behind all of the supercells. Will deal with tomorrow after morning OFBs become established mid-morning. For now, today would have been a good day to visit Memphis and chase east back toward home. If you liked Saturday, EF-1 tornado confirmed by both PAH/MEM, you're gonna love today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The line has made it pretty far east to Huntsville and almost Nashville and Murfreesboro. Can it make it to the Plateau and East TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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