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May 2014 General Discussion


Brewers

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GFS with another horrible initialization for the dewpoints. It shows like 5000-6000 J/kg SBCAPE over IA at initialization and 70s dews over basically the whole state. Fortunately it doesn't look completely crazy for tomorrow looking at other guidance, but this is becoming really frustrating.

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Up to 90 at TIP as well. Today wasn't a good example to point out PNT possibly having a bit of a warm bias on some days. Seems pretty representative. 12z NAM yesterday showed mixing to almost 850 mb. We'll see how deep the mixing got oj the 00z ILX sounding.

Looks like ~800mb at DVN and ~850mb at ILX.

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Looks like ~800mb at DVN and ~850mb at ILX.

Impressive. I used a mixdown tool from the NAM yesterday and it had I think upper 80s where it reached 90 so looks like a combo of the deeper mixing and maybe slightly warmer temps at the mixing level. My forecast bias for today basically evened out, I was a bit too low in the warm sector and too warm in northeast IL.

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Looks like a heat burst out in northern Iowa at Algona.  The temp there has shot up to 81 with 64mph winds being reported at the AWOS.  The convection moving in is pretty weak, so it's probably from that.

 

 

66 mph now.  The 0515z and 0535z obs both had gusts over 60 mph.

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