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Heavy Rain and Flooding April 29 - May 1 Observation Thread


IsentropicLift

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there is plenty of rain to come on radar and more will probably develop as the warm front passes and we get unstable aloft

 

We have seen some of the steepest mid-level lapse rates from January to April that I can remember this year.

 

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It's going to be a horrible ride home for the urban areas. Heavy rain moving in

Yep areal flood warning now

ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-ROCKLAND NY-HUDSON NJ-ESSEX NJ-BERGEN NJ-

WESTCHESTER NY-UNION NJ-PASSAIC NJ-

406 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...

ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE

HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON

SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN

AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR

DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AN AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ABOUT TO MOVING INTO NE NJ AND NYC. RAIN RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HAVE BEEN SHOWN BY RADAR TO BE AROUND 0.3 TO 0.5 INCH
PER HOUR.

CONVECTION FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE A LARGE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MERIDONAL FLOW...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES TONIGHT WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF RAIN
FORECAST. THE COMBINATION USED WAS A BLEND OF WPC...CMC REGIONAL
AS WELL AS SOME ECMWF WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL BE THE RESULT SO THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.


LOWS WERE A COMBO OF NAM12...GMOS...AND MAV. THESE LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES IN LATE AT NIGHT.

TO NOTE FROM MODEL PERFORMANCE PERSPECTIVE...NAM AND GFS TOTALLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE RAINFALL UP TO 12Z EARLIER TODAY. RAIN AMOUNTS
WERE ALREADY UP TO HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS
IN OUR WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA IN NE NJ. LOOKING AT A REGIONAL
VIEW OF STORM TOTAL PRECIP ESTIMATED FROM RADAR...THIS CORRELATES
MORE TO THE MODEL RUN TOTAL FROM THE CMC COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO CAPTURED
BETTER THE ORIENTATION OF THE HEAVIER QPF THUS FAR BUT HAS NOT
SHOWN IT TO MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS IT DID.

 

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
444 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014

MDC017-037-302100-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140430T2100Z/
CHARLES MD-ST. MARYS MD-
444 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR ST. MARYS
AND CHARLES COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF WICOMICO RIVER...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHARLOTTE HALL...
  MECHANICSVILLE...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.


 

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What about the day Hurricane Irene hit? Or Hurricane Floyd.

 

Oooh Hurricane Floyd (TS by the time it got here if I remember correctly) was incredible.  There were places in the Taconics and Hudson Highlands that got 14+" of rain in one afternoon.  I had a 5 gallon bucket outside my basement door in a wind protected area and it was overflowing by the time the sun set that day.  I actually had to open my store that morning in Patterson because I was expecting deliveries and by the time I left around 3 it was coming down in buckets.  There were a few times I had to come to a complete stop in the middle of Rt 22 because I couldn't even see the end of the hood and there were places the water was running nearly hood deep across the road on the hill up to my house and it was just cross the fingers and gun it.  We lost entire hillsides in the woods and the creek that drains the area where I mt bike was fifteen feet deep in a few spots where downed trees temporarily dammed it up.  When it was over there were blocked up valleys and piles of downed trees twenty feet high at the bends in the creek.

 

I thought when I saw 11" of rain in an afternoon in Cordova AK that I would never see anything like that again but Floyd was a whole new type of awesome.

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if KNYC gets 5" from this storm it would be in the top ten wettest events...

Here are the wettest days on record...
8.28" on 9/23/1882. 11.83" from 9/21-23.
7.56" on 4/15/2007. 8.45" from 4/15-16
7.40" on 11/8/1977. 9.19" from 11/7-8.
7.33" on 10/9/1903. 11.80" from 10/8-10.
5.81" on 8/14/2011
5.60" on 11/8/1972.
5.54" on 9/21/1966.
5.02" on 9/16/1999.
4.98" on 10/1/1913.

Wettest storms
11.83" 09/21-23/1882
11.80" 10/08-10/1903
..9.19" 11/07-08/1977
..8.45" 04/15-16/2007
..7.76" 09/13-14/1944
..7.01" 10/12-13/2005
..6.87" 08/27-28/2011
..6.32" 08/12-13/1955
.....................................

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