IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Heaviest rain of the event so far now approaching northern NJ and NYC from the southwest. It should dump a quick additional 1-2" and will be the first real test on the rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 How much rain would have to fall in order to cause flash flooding in Manhattan? 15"? 20"?Flash flooding way less but in a short time. 3" an hour would have taxis floating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 For once my area is getting jackpotted and since I love rainstorms I couldn't be happier. What great activities have you partaken in today? For me it's been awesome to sit inside and do nothing as my entire yard turns to mud, which will aid in the precipitous growth of weeds and a remarkable explosion in the bug population, especially disease carrying mosquitos. Not to mention the flooding of basements and additional property damage that will occur to so many. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 How much rain would have to fall in order to cause flash flooding in Manhattan? 15"? 20"? The FDR floods all the time from heavy rain. Manhattan varies heavily by elevation, so it would depend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 For once my area is getting jackpotted and since I love rainstorms I couldn't be happier. The heaviest axis of rain was always supposed to be through your area. For 2 days models highlighted the DC area up through N NJ. It just looks like east of there is getting in on it too which was uncertain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 For those that wanted to know the 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 The heaviest axis of rain was always supposed to be through your area. For 2 days models highlighted the DC area up through N NJ. It just looks like east of there is getting in on it too which was uncertain for a while. Most of the global models and the NAM had the heaviest rains west of 95 and into PA. Reality was further east. Upton eluded to this in their overnight AFD stating that the models were way to dry on the eastern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 How much rain would have to fall in order to cause flash flooding in Manhattan? 15"? 20"? Summer thunderstorm events when we got 2-3" per hour had water pouring down the subway steps onto the platforms and tracks. http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/flooding-cripples-subway-system/ Long Island version: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Summer thunderstorm events when we got 2-3" per hour had water pouring down the subway steps onto the platforms and tracks. Okay but my point is that a 2-3" rainstorm isn't going to cause major problems in Manhattan. For those people this is just another rainy day. Maybe if the subways were flooded more often they wouldn't have such a horrible stench. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Summer thunderstorm events when we got 2-3" per hour had water pouring down the subway steps onto the platforms and tracks. http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/flooding-cripples-subway-system/ Yep, a torrential thunderstorm in summer will do it. Okay but my point is that a 2-3" rainstorm isn't going to cause major problems in Manhattan. For those people this is just another rainy day. Maybe if the subways were flooded more often they wouldn't have such a horrible stench. If you get that in about 30min the streets here will flood. In Aug of 2011 when we got some absurd amount of rain (I think we got like 19" of rain that month) we had some flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Closest reporting station, 1.72" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Yep, a torrential thunderstorm in summer will do it. If you get that in about 30min the streets here will flood. In Aug of 2011 when we got some absurd amount of rain (I think we got like 19" of rain that month) we had some flooding. Irene dumped over 10" in a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Some latest rainfall totals: NYC 1.45"LGA 1.56"JFK 1.42"EWR 1.72"TTN 2.15"PNE 2.79"PHL 2.72" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 For those that wanted to know the 12z ECMWF ecmwf_tprecip_nyc_21.png It's been very consistent with those amounts Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 It looks like that big slug of moisture is having no trouble pushing right into areas like Newark and NYC and the newest RAP puts the heaviest rains up and down i95 and especially east of philly into nj Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just got back home. 24 hour rain total - 1.07 inches of rain. Current temp - 44F Ops - Heavy rain with wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Radar looks almost done in NW NJ. Is this the storm? If yes, Bustorama in my backyard. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Radar looks almost done in NW NJ. Is this the storm? If yes, Bustorama in my backyard. Cheers Seems like it at least for now. All the heavy stuff is moving to your south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Radar looks almost done in NW NJ. Is this the storm? If yes, Bustorama in my backyard. Cheers there is plenty of rain to come on radar and more will probably develop as the warm front passes and we get unstable aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Radar looks almost done in NW NJ. Is this the storm? If yes, Bustorama in my backyard. Cheers No. Very heavy rain will head NE back into the area over the next few hours. All that rain west of Philadelphia is headed in. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Radar looks almost done in NW NJ. Is this the storm? If yes, Bustorama in my backyard. Cheers That slug of rain isn't moving east. It's more or less training SW to NE with very little eastward progression. Take a look at the Sterling, VA radar or even the Mt. Holly radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 No. Very heavy rain will head NE back into the area over the next few hours. All that rain west of Philadelphia is headed in. Sent from my iPhone Yeah but if you look at the trajectory it might miss Sussex Cty where he is. Meanwhile our area is just going to keep getting slammed for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Yeah but if you look at the trajectory it might miss Sussex Cty where he is. Meanwhile our area is just going to keep getting slammed for the foreseeable futureTrue. I read afterward that he was in NW NJ Sussex county....most of it should head from Trenton to the northeast and back S from there....still a ton to come. Easily a 3-5" rainfall across for almost all of usSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Flash flood warnings needed for the stretch of NNJ running from Trenton to West Milford. Upton Doppler radar estimating large swath of 1"+ per hour rates with training ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 True. I read afterward that he was in NW NJ Sussex county....most of it should head from Trenton to the northeast and back S from there....still a ton to come. Easily a 3-5" rainfall across for almost all of us Sent from my iPhone there's plenty of time for more to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 True. I read afterward that he was in NW NJ Sussex county....most of it should head from Trenton to the northeast and back S from there....still a ton to come. Easily a 3-5" rainfall across for almost all of us Sent from my iPhone All of the short term high res models have the rain filling in everywhere after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 The DC to BWI corridor on 95 must be at a standstill. Flash flood warnings along the entire stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 there's plenty of time for more to developit's happening near i78 in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Author Share Posted April 30, 2014 Sort of comical, the 18z NAM is completely ignoring the heavy convection in eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Heavy rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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