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May 2014


uncle W

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The models are still waffling back and forth in terms of precipitation but the signal has been there for a warm stretch to begin next week before the ridge axis moves east and we re enter a troughing regime.

I think any widespread big rains are dead for the next 5-7 days.   Upton has cut way back on their forecast.

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I think any widespread big rains are dead for the next 5-7 days.   Upton has cut way back on their forecast.

Well this week was only supposed to produce scattered activity with periods of heavier coverage and dry periods mixed in as well. I don't expect the models at this range to have a great scope on the exact propagation of the various impulses that will ride along the stalled out front.

 

The chance for major rains occurs post day 6 as an ULL system develops over the plains. Large differences remain regarding the amplitude and progression of this system and that will ultimately have a large impact on our sensible weather. The 12z runs yesterday were less progressive with the 12z GGEM completely cutting it off to our west.

 

The wildcard is what comes out of the tropics if anything. That could enhance rainfall rates as the system interacts with an increasing LLJ.

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Well this week was only supposed to produce scattered activity with periods of heavier coverage and dry periods mixed in as well. I don't expect the models at this range to have a great scope on the exact propagation of the various impulses that will ride along the stalled out front.

 

The chance for major rains occurs post day 6 as an ULL system develops over the plains. Large differences remain regarding the amplitude and progression of this system and that will ultimately have a large impact on our sensible weather. The 12z runs yesterday were less progressive with the 12z GGEM completely cutting it off to our west.

 

The wildcard is what comes out of the tropics if anything. That could enhance rainfall rates as the system interacts with an increasing LLJ.

If that WAR flexes westward, then nothing will get in here next week-something to watch for sure.

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Nice stretch shaping up .

AS SUSPECTED, inland areas will soar well into the 70's and 80's from sunday on and coastal areas like me on the south shore will struggle to get out of the low-mid 60's. some pretty big temp differences this year thus far on our warm days so far this spring

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AS SUSPECTED, inland areas will soar well into the 70's and 80's from sunday on and coastal areas like me on the south shore will struggle to get out of the low-mid 60's. some pretty big temp differences this year thus far on our warm days so far this spring

Once N of the LIE and you`re fine .

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Here comes the high heat and humidity, welcome to summer. The WAR would favor hurricanes hitting the east coast if they do form.

The ensembles are in good agreement that this is a temporary warm up lasting only about 3-4 days. We cool back off towards the end of next week. That's not to say that next week won't be warm but I don't consider upper 80's in the middle of May to be high heat. Even if it is well above normal.

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The ensembles are in good agreement that this is a temporary warm up lasting only about 3-4 days. We cool back off towards the end of next week. That's not to say that next week won't be warm but I don't consider upper 80's in the middle of May to be high heat. Even if it is well above normal.

Agree-it's not that unusual, but after weeks of average to slightly below, 80 would feel like an inferno.  And beware of those runs showing a return to cool-if the WAR flexes, we may be in for an extended period of warmth.

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First 80 degree reading of spring for NYC showing up on GFS to match Euro.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/07/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       WED  07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14 CLIMO X/N  71| 53  68| 56  69| 60  74| 61  78| 62  80| 62  76| 57  72 52 70
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Since you don't frequent this sub forum perhaps you're better off not passing judgement. I was trying to drive home a point. I've been a member for 4 years and I wouldn't have survived this long if I posted day ten Euro maps everyday.

 

Just because I don't post, that doesn't mean I am not reading here and any other subforum wouldn't let day 10 Euro maps fly so frequently. Case in point that system you posted was virtually gone on last nights Euro run.

 

By the way, you post the 4km NAM QPF maps, the 4km NAM tends to be too high on QPF in convective events, I would be very cautious when using that model, especially when there isn't much support to the magnitude it shows.

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Just because I don't post, that doesn't mean I am not reading here and any other subforum wouldn't let day 10 Euro maps fly so frequently. Case in point that system you posted was virtually gone on last nights Euro run.

 

By the way, you post the 4km NAM QPF maps, the 4km NAM tends to be too high on QPF in convective events, I would be very cautious when using that model, especially when there isn't much support to the magnitude it shows.

The models have struggled immensely the last few days regarding the coverage of precipitation. The NAM included. The 12z NAM initialized without any reflection of the ongoing convective complex this morning in the mid-atlantic and SW PA. For the most part the HRRR has had the best verification. Right now we're out of the HRRR's range but the RAP is starting to pick up on an area of organized heavy convection for the overnight period.

 

With all due respect this isn't my first rodeo and I'm well aware of the biases of the 4k NAM but it's solution makes the most sense to me. I wouldn't expect the globals to pick up on the convection the same way the high res short term models will.

 

That tropical low or sub-tropical low is still showing up on the globals, at least it is on the 12z GFS and 12z GGEM. It's just getting absorbed by the front quicker due to the more progressive pattern.

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Just because I don't post, that doesn't mean I am not reading here and any other subforum wouldn't let day 10 Euro maps fly so frequently. Case in point that system you posted was virtually gone on last nights Euro run.

 

By the way, you post the 4km NAM QPF maps, the 4km NAM tends to be too high on QPF in convective events, I would be very cautious when using that model, especially when there isn't much support to the magnitude it shows.

it's pointless to try to teach him anything
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The models have struggled immensely the last few days regarding the coverage of precipitation. The NAM included. The 12z NAM initialized without any reflection of the ongoing convective complex this morning in the mid-atlantic and SW PA. For the most part the HRRR has had the best verification. Right now we're out of the HRRR's range but the RAP is starting to pick up on an area of organized heavy convection for the overnight period.

With all due respect this isn't my first rodeo and I'm well aware of the biases of the 4k NAM but it's solution makes the most sense to me. I wouldn't expect the globals to pick up on the convection the same way the high res short term models will.

But all the models had .5-1" of precip and have cut back significantly. That trend shouldn't be ignored either.

** The euro now has under a tenth of an inch at MMU thru 12z

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First 80 degree reading of spring for NYC showing up on GFS to match Euro.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/07/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       WED  07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14 CLIMO X/N  71| 53  68| 56  69| 60  74| 61  78| 62  80| 62  76| 57  72 52 70

80's are a good bet for areas away from the shoreline early next week. 850 temps are approaching 15C and there's a good SW flow. Maybe those of us along the shore can finally make it to 70!! :weight_lift:

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Yeah I see with his last post. I mean anyone who says the HRRR has the best model verification doesn't know a thing about modeling.

Calling the NWS stupid? I took that directly from their AFD

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE

A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH/EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

AN AREA OF TSTMS ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS WRN MD/S

CENT PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AS PER THE RECENT HRRR WHICH HAS

A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA

AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN

INCREASED ON THE MOST RECENT ESTF.

WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH

THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE

A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

And Upton using it as well

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SE.

SHOWERS UPSTREAM LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...PER

NARRE AND HRRR.

PER MORNING SOUNDING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...

NEAR NORMAL. COASTAL LOCALES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO EARLIER

SEA BREEZES.

 

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12z Euro has 82 for NYC and upper 80s for CNJ on Monday. Tuesday 88 for NYC around 90 for CNJ.

The idea of having the heat build in around midmonth as the -NAO broke down looks like it should work out. Once the backdoor threats go away the heat should be building in.

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we're going to approach 90 next week if the euro is right

 

 

I think 90 could be hit or approached 2-3 times for areas SW of NYC, Mon-Wed of next week. 850mb temps are generally +15c to +17c. Assuming decent sunshine on a SWLY flow, interior areas could be well into the 80s for three consecutive days. Beginning to think I'm too cold with +1 to +1.5 for May temp departures. We're going to be running enormous positives by mid next week.

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