May 2014

[SnoSki14]

May could be several degrees above normal, don't see many below normal days at all really.

[Allsnow]

Lol..yanksfan is getting abused in this thread lol

[IsentropicLift]

If you're going to rain monger, at least get your dates right ... the rain doesn't arrive until late tomorrow night/more likely after midnight/early Thursday. Everyone will be dry tomorrow, certainly during the day, and no one should carry an umbrella unless they are using it for shade... clouds won't even really increase substantially until the afternoon. Overall, it will be another pleasant Spring day.

Except that the 00z 4k NAM gets rain here before 00z.

[IsentropicLift]

Lol..yanksfan is getting abused in this thread lol

You need to get a life or a new hobby or both. Leave me alone for the final time.

[Stebo]

Wow I have never seen such a misinformed poster in my life. These last 2 pages have been an excellent read. Might be a good idea for someone to listen to the other mets around here.

[HailMan06]

Yanks sure does has a strange fetish for cool and rainy weather.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs and Nam both have only around .25" tomorrow night and Thursday. Gfs is also quite warm by Sunday and especially Monday..

[IsentropicLift]

Gfs and Nam both have only around .25" tomorrow night and Thursday. Gfs is also quite warm by Sunday and especially Monday..

Did you look at the 4k version? Quite a difference.

[IsentropicLift]

Wow I have never seen such a misinformed poster in my life. These last 2 pages have been an excellent read. Might be a good idea for someone to listen to the other mets around here.

Misinformed? I like rainy weather which makes me un popular around these parts.

[Stebo]

Misinformed? I like rainy weather which makes me un popular around these parts.

More along the lines of your goalpost moving that you did on the last page. Plus you did post a day 10 Euro map that will probably change 50 times between now and then. The best part is you believe that there is nothing wrong with that sort of posting style.

 

As for your expectation of rain sure it might rain but the models are printing out the QPF based upon convection, which means there is a chance it might not materialize quite how the models show it. Also notice the differences in previous models compared to the 00z, the QPF amounts are going down not up. So I wouldn't hold my breath for a huge soaker.

 

As for warm weather, the cold front that is supposed to come through here on Friday is going to wash out before it gets to the East Coast, in other words when the warm front comes through Thursday into Friday expect it to stay warm until midweek next week when the next cold front is forecast to come through.

[Dsnowx53]

 

Based on the 12z runs today, Thursday looks lousy for most of us on this forum. Due to the trough and confluence over New England, causing the warm front to slow down or stall to our south. We could see plenty of clouds with some showers and temps in the 50s/60s. But warming trend begins on Friday, as that trough begins to shift east (lack of Atlantic blocking). There could be a big difference in temperatures from SW to NE, as the warm front tries to move through.

 

For Saturday the 12z Euro has upper 70s or lower 80s for NNJ, NYC and even mid 80s for Central NJ.  850mb temps are between 14C to 16C with light SW winds. Which the models have been showing with airmass for sometime. So potential for 80+ is still there for NYC-LGA, with the warm front north and enough sun. Some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night with a weak cold front. Then we are mostly dry Sunday and next Monday with temperatures in 70s and light W/NW winds.

 

The GFS MOS for NYC/EWR is several degrees warmer than the Euro for Thursday and Friday. Then is closer to the Euro afterwards:

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12|TUE CLIMO N/X  49  70| 47  68| 51  64| 56  71| 58  76| 60  73| 57  75| 58 51 69 TMP  52  60| 51  57| 54  59| 58  65| 61  68| 62  66| 60  66| 61       DPT  32  32| 32  38| 45  54| 53  56| 56  55| 53  48| 46  47| 49      

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12|TUE CLIMO N/X  46  70| 45  67| 51  67| 56  72| 58  77| 59  74| 56  75| 57 50 70 TMP  52  62| 51  60| 55  62| 60  67| 62  70| 63  67| 60  68| 62       DPT  32  30| 31  36| 46  52| 54  54| 54  53| 50  48| 46  45| 50          

 

 

Great post and summary, and this still looks to remain true. 

[Shades]

Great post and summary, and this still looks to remain true. 

 

 

 

Based on the 12z runs today, Thursday looks lousy for most of us on this forum. Due to the trough and confluence over New England, causing the warm front to slow down or stall to our south. We could see plenty of clouds with some showers and temps in the 50s/60s. But warming trend begins on Friday, as that trough begins to shift east (lack of Atlantic blocking). There could be a big difference in temperatures from SW to NE, as the warm front tries to move through.

 

For Saturday the 12z Euro has upper 70s or lower 80s for NNJ, NYC and even mid 80s for Central NJ.  850mb temps are between 14C to 16C with light SW winds. Which the models have been showing with airmass for sometime. So potential for 80+ is still there for NYC-LGA, with the warm front north and enough sun. Some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night with a weak cold front. Then we are mostly dry Sunday and next Monday with temperatures in 70s and light W/NW winds.

 

The GFS MOS for NYC/EWR is several degrees warmer than the Euro for Thursday and Friday. Then is closer to the Euro afterwards:

 

 

Always appreciate weathergun's summaries, unfortunately it sometimes gets buried under the drivel of certain posters who cherry pick models to their liking. The weather does not care if you like rain, sun, snow, warm, cold, hot, and that should be the mentality that everyone takes when forecasting so that we brush off these biases of preferences and fixations. I salute weathergun for that endeavor on his part, not so much some other(s) who have frequently barraged these threads with pages upon pages of  prejudice casting instead of forecasting.

[Weathergun]

Great post and summary, and this still looks to remain true. 

 

Yes, this hasn't changed. Except with now with the cold front washing out this weekend, we could see another surge into 80s into early next week. The 0z Euro and 6z shows lower and middle 80s in NYC and NE NJ on Tuesday:

 

 

 

[bluewave]

There was a tendency during the later part of April to underestimate the impact of the

Western Atlantic Ridge here. Notice how the models nailed the fact that areas to

our west would be below normal but missed the warmer temperatures along the

East Coast. This will allow the warm front to cross the area instead of hanging

up. So the more pessimistic backdoor model runs don't look they are going

to work out. I would also watch for any cool down in forecast beyond day

10 to probably modify as we get closer with the coldest anomalies remaining

to our west.

 

May week 1 forecast

 

 

Verification too cool

 

[IsentropicLift]

More along the lines of your goalpost moving that you did on the last page. Plus you did post a day 10 Euro map that will probably change 50 times between now and then. The best part is you believe that there is nothing wrong with that sort of posting style.

As for your expectation of rain sure it might rain but the models are printing out the QPF based upon convection, which means there is a chance it might not materialize quite how the models show it. Also notice the differences in previous models compared to the 00z, the QPF amounts are going down not up. So I wouldn't hold my breath for a huge soaker.

As for warm weather, the cold front that is supposed to come through here on Friday is going to wash out before it gets to the East Coast, in other words when the warm front comes through Thursday into Friday expect it to stay warm until midweek next week when the next cold front is forecast to come through.

Since you don't frequent this sub forum perhaps you're better off not passing judgement. I was trying to drive home a point. I've been a member for 4 years and I wouldn't have survived this long if I posted day ten Euro maps everyday.

[Isotherm]

There was a tendency during the later part of April to underestimate the impact of the

Western Atlantic Ridge here. Notice how the models nailed the fact that areas to

our west would be below normal but missed the warmer temperatures along the

East Coast. This will allow the warm front to cross the area instead of hanging

up. So the more pessimistic backdoor model runs don't look they are going

to work out. I would also watch for any cool down in forecast beyond day

10 to probably modify as we get closer with the coldest anomalies remaining

to our west.

 

 

 

 

I believe this will happen for the month of May as well. Guidance has been underestimating the influence of the +NAO, which creates significant resistance to incoming short waves as they reach the Northeast US. May will finish warmer than normal IMO, with the next 7 days being very warm. Our departures by May 14th might be +3 to +5 across the area. They'll be knocked down with a couple cool shots this month, but overall the WAR looks much stronger than April to me.

 

Remains to be seen whether that pattern continues into the summer. Much depends on the NAO state. The -EPO doesn't look to dissipate any time soon. Warm water persists in the NPAC. This will be our first +PDO regime in several years.

[IsentropicLift]

I believe this will happen for the month of May as well. Guidance has been underestimating the influence of the +NAO, which creates significant resistance to incoming short waves as they reach the Northeast US. May will finish warmer than normal IMO, with the next 7 days being very warm. Our departures by May 14th might be +3 to +5 across the area. They'll be knocked down with a couple cool shots this month, but overall the WAR looks much stronger than April to me.

 

Remains to be seen whether that pattern continues into the summer. Much depends on the NAO state. The -EPO doesn't look to dissipate any time soon. Warm water persists in the NPAC. This will be our first +PDO regime in several years.

Where is this +NAO that you speak of?

 

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z ECMWF ensembles develop strong ridging over Greenland post day ten.

[Brian5671]

another beaut here.  61 and bluebird skies.  Leaves finally starting to come out.

[IsentropicLift]

another beaut here.  61 and bluebird skies.  Leaves finally starting to come out.

We really leafed out here the past week or so. I was starting to think we'd make it to Memorial Day without full coverage.

[bluewave]

I believe this will happen for the month of May as well. Guidance has been underestimating the influence of the +NAO, which creates significant resistance to incoming short waves as they reach the Northeast US. May will finish warmer than normal IMO, with the next 7 days being very warm. Our departures by May 14th might be +3 to +5 across the area. They'll be knocked down with a couple cool shots this month, but overall the WAR looks much stronger than April to me.

 

Remains to be seen whether that pattern continues into the summer. Much depends on the NAO state. The -EPO doesn't look to dissipate any time soon. Warm water persists in the NPAC. This will be our first +PDO regime in several years.

 

The CFS is going with the idea of another Western Atlantic Ridge pattern this summer. Notice how it had the warm

summer departure forecast for New England last summer but missed the magnitude here. The CFS has a similar

look this year so it will come down to the verification of the ridge position and strength this year.

 

Summer 2014 forecast

 

 

2013 summer forecast

 

 

verification

 

[Weathergun]

Where is this +NAO that you speak of?

 

 

The CPC forecast -NAO is really the WAR the connecting to cut-off block near Hudson Bay this weekend and early next week.

 

[Isotherm]

"Where is this +NAO that you speak of?"

 

 

 

The Euro has a +NAO over the next week.

 

 

Additionally, look at the H5 anomalies. That's a slightly positive NAO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

"Where is this +NAO that you speak of?"

 

 

 

The Euro has a +NAO over the next week.

 

 

Additionally, look at the H5 anomalies. That's a slightly positive NAO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The new long range Metoffice 5 year forecast captured the NAO flip that we saw last April  and the

resultant NATL cold pool back in November 2012 forecast. The really strong NAO pattern recently

flipped the AMO negative for the first 4 months of the year.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z NAM initialized without the large blob of convective precip over western PA.  Something to consider regarding its forecast today.

 

[IsentropicLift]

We might hit close to 90 degrees next Wednesday before we cool back down towards the end of the week.

 

[uncle W]

so far this month the lowest temperature is 50...If that stands as the monthly minimum it will be a new record for the highest monthly minimum on record...I doubt it stands and we will get into the upper 40's one or more mornings later this month...1965 and 1982 analogs are on the list for warmest May minimums...

May warmest monthly minimum at KNYC...
49 in 2012
49 in 1982
48 in 1899
48 in 1910
47 in 1942
47 in 1944
47 in 1969
47 in 1991

46 in 1965+ other years

[MJO812]

Next week looks warm for NYC and inland areas with temps near or even surpassing 80 degrees.

[famartin]

so far this month the lowest temperature is 50...If that stands as the monthly minimum it will be a new record for the highest monthly minimum on record...I doubt it stands and we will get into the upper 40's one or more mornings later this month...1965 and 1982 analogs are on the list for warmest May minimums...

May warmest monthly minimum at KNYC...

49 in 2012

49 in 1982

48 in 1899

48 in 1910

47 in 1942

47 in 1944

47 in 1969

47 in 1991

46 in 1965+ other years

Hush up Unc, you are ruining "IsentropicLift"'s cold mongering

[PB GFI]

Nice stretch shaping up  .