May 2014

[Stormlover74]

A quick couple showers and some gusty winds and that was it. The thunderstorm shield over my house reigns supreme still

I had nothing but sun and a few clouds and maybe a sprinkle..was pretty breezy though

[MJO812]

Nothing here

[NEG NAO]

No real warmups in site although a few locations especially inland might approach or reach 80 a couple of days -also average to slightly above avg precip

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

[bluewave]

Only five other years over the last 30 springs when NYC reached the first 80 degree reading

after May 5th. It was more common before the 2000's.

 

5-19-97...83

5-16-95...80

5-23-88...83

5-7-87.....81

5-23-84...81

[IsentropicLift]

Roughly 30% of the individual 00z ECMWF ensemble members have what would be considered significant rain the 7-10 day range. A few members have 10 day totals approaching 5".

[IsentropicLift]

The area could see some very heavy rain in a narrow band early Thursday morning. The 00z GGEM hits the area the hardest. Looks like a possible MCS that rounds the top of the ridge in the mid-west and then races southeastward. Some areas could pick up a quick 1-2" of rain.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS is close to a total washout on Thursday.

[Weathergun]

Based on the 12z runs today, Thursday looks lousy for most of us on this forum. Due to the trough and confluence over New England, causing the warm front to slow down or stall to our south. We could see plenty of clouds with some showers and temps in the 50s/60s. But warming trend begins on Friday, as that trough begins to shift east (lack of Atlantic blocking). There could be a big difference in temperatures from SW to NE, as the warm front tries to move through.

 

For Saturday the 12z Euro has upper 70s or lower 80s for NNJ, NYC and even mid 80s for Central NJ.  850mb temps are between 14C to 16C with light SW winds. Which the models have been showing with airmass for sometime. So potential for 80+ is still there for NYC-LGA, with the warm front north and enough sun. Some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night with a weak cold front. Then we are mostly dry Sunday and next Monday with temperatures in 70s and light W/NW winds.

 

The GFS MOS for NYC/EWR is several degrees warmer than the Euro for Thursday and Friday. Then is closer to the Euro afterwards:

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12|TUE CLIMO N/X  49  70| 47  68| 51  64| 56  71| 58  76| 60  73| 57  75| 58 51 69 TMP  52  60| 51  57| 54  59| 58  65| 61  68| 62  66| 60  66| 61       DPT  32  32| 32  38| 45  54| 53  56| 56  55| 53  48| 46  47| 49      

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12|TUE CLIMO N/X  46  70| 45  67| 51  67| 56  72| 58  77| 59  74| 56  75| 57 50 70 TMP  52  62| 51  60| 55  62| 60  67| 62  70| 63  67| 60  68| 62       DPT  32  30| 31  36| 46  52| 54  54| 54  53| 50  48| 46  45| 50          

 

[winterwarlock]

to read this thread and the April thread one would think we had rainy cloudy gloomy weather all April and into the first week of May. Besides the big rainstorm last week, its hasn't rained all that much for a lot in the region as many didn't get any t storms over the weekend. As for temperatures, we are averaging just about normal. Laughing at all the people I run into telling me when is spring starting..um hello, this is spring, this is how its supposed to be. Anyhoo gotta love the one poster banging the drum for rainstorms the last 6 weeks yet only seen one last week...and also not sure why people are saying no warmup ahead....average temps is mid to upper 60s range and Mt Holly forecasting mid 70s over the weekend and that could be even higher. Its certainly been a cooler spring than we have been experiencing in the past few years but weatherwise since I work outside its been pretty good with just that blip of nasty weather last week. Looking forward to the next two days of sunshine and 70 IMBY...my local met has most of the rain falling Wednesday night and moving out early Thursday

[IsentropicLift]

to read this thread and the April thread one would think we had rainy cloudy gloomy weather all April and into the first week of May. Besides the big rainstorm last week, its hasn't rained all that much for a lot in the region as many didn't get any t storms over the weekend. As for temperatures, we are averaging just about normal. Laughing at all the people I run into telling me when is spring starting..um hello, this is spring, this is how its supposed to be. Anyhoo gotta love the one poster banging the drum for rainstorms the last 6 weeks yet only seen one last week...and also not sure why people are saying no warmup ahead....average temps is mid to upper 60s range and Mt Holly forecasting mid 70s over the weekend and that could be even higher. Its certainly been a cooler spring than we have been experiencing in the past few years but weatherwise since I work outside its been pretty good with just that blip of nasty weather last week. Looking forward to the next two days of sunshine and 70 IMBY...my local met has most of the rain falling Wednesday night and moving out early Thursday

Nobody has said that it would rain everyday but you can't deny that it has rained a lot. It's going to be a washout on Thursday. We'll have a chance of showers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. A brief break on Monday before we get flooding rains starting late Tuesday night with more repeated chances of rain all next week. Again it won't rain the entire time, but the signal is their for heavy rain and periods of rain in general.

[IsentropicLift]

Great write up this morning from Mt. Holly

 

WEDNESDAY SHOULD START ON THE SUNNY SIDE, MAYBE SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. INITIALLY OUR
AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE, SO POPS WERE NOT THAT BULLISH.
THERE IS DECENT THERMAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND MAX TEMPS
WERE KEPT CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND LATEST STAT GUIDANCE.

WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON IN LOWER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA COULD BE
A SIMILAR OUTCOME FOR OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE
IN QUESTION EXISTS OVER SERN COLORADO AND WHILE ITS MORPHOLOGY AT
THIS FORECAST JUNCTURE WILL NOT BE HANDLED PRECISELY, ITS NOT A
FIGMENT OF THE MODEL`S IMAGINATION. WHAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AMONG THE MODELS IS THAT THE INSTABILITY ALOFT (REALLY AT 800MB
FOR A MAX, QUITE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY) IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE IN OUR CWA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE GFS IS FASTEST
WITH PASSING THIS FEATURE THROUGH, WHILE THE ECMWF IS AMONG THE
SLOWEST. GEOGRAPHICALLY, THEY ARE ALL NORTHERN CWA, WITH A
SOUTHWARD DRIFT FROM THE TWO PREVIOUS SOUNDING CYCLE RUNS. WE DID
UP POPS TO LIKELY NORTH BASED ON THE MODELING CONSENSUS. WE ALSO
CONTINUED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER, WITH NO "TYPICAL" DECREASE OF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT. THE FCST JET
STRUCTURE COULD BE BETTER, BUT THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS
PREDICTED TO BE DECENT AND THERE IS EVEN SOME MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL FIELDS. HARD TO TELL IF THE
CHANNELING OF PCPN WILL STAGNATE AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
TRAINING CELLS AS WE MOVE FORWARD.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, CONVECTIVE CHANCES MIGHT OR VERY
WELL WILL LINGER INTO PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THE GFS IS
THE FASTEST, ITS ALSO THE WARMEST ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SLOWER, THEIR THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS MORE ROBUST
HIGH TEMPS THAN THEIR STAT GUIDANCE. WE WENT WITH THIS OVER
DELMARVA, BUT BECAME LESS CONFIDENT OF THIS THOUGHT PROCESS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA WHERE WE BECAME MORE CONSERVATIVE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE INSTABILITY ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE EVEN
STRONGER, BUT RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A STRONG SHORT
WAVE NOR BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREDICTED TO
MOVE FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA, WE KEPT POPS LOW, BUT INCLUDED THE
THUNDER.

FRIDAY THERE IS BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE FCST 500MB
RIDGE POSN OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA. SO WITH
NEGATIVE THETA E ADVT, POPS WERE LOW AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT A WARMER DAY, MAYBE EVEN
MORE 80S THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING.

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ABOUT THE COLD FRONT REACHING OUR CWA ABOUT
SATURDAY, BUT THEN A SPLIT AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT GOES. HERE WE
BLENDED HPC AND CONTINUITY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THAN MOTHER`S DAY. WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT FRONT.

THE CONUNDRUM OF RAINING INTO THE WARM FRONT MAY SLOW THE
ADVANCEMENT OF WARMER WEATHER AND LOWERS FCST CONFIDENCE. REGARDLESS
THE LONG TERM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A MILDER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD AND
WE HAVE NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO TYPE THAT MUCH THIS YEAR.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

to read this thread and the April thread one would think we had rainy cloudy gloomy weather all April and into the first week of May. Besides the big rainstorm last week, its hasn't rained all that much for a lot in the region as many didn't get any t storms over the weekend. As for temperatures, we are averaging just about normal. Laughing at all the people I run into telling me when is spring starting..um hello, this is spring, this is how its supposed to be. Anyhoo gotta love the one poster banging the drum for rainstorms the last 6 weeks yet only seen one last week...and also not sure why people are saying no warmup ahead....average temps is mid to upper 60s range and Mt Holly forecasting mid 70s over the weekend and that could be even higher. Its certainly been a cooler spring than we have been experiencing in the past few years but weatherwise since I work outside its been pretty good with just that blip of nasty weather last week. Looking forward to the next two days of sunshine and 70 IMBY...my local met has most of the rain falling Wednesday night and moving out early Thursday

I do agree that this has been a normal spring temp wise. However, we have seen a ton of rain this spring. From the end of march one, its been wet. We've also had a number of washed out multi day periods

[Stormlover74]

I do agree that this has been a normal spring temp wise. However, we have seen a ton of rain this spring. From the end of march one, its been wet. We've also had a number of washed out multi day periods

Down here April only had 10 days of measurable rainfall, most falling in one day. 

[IsentropicLift]

Let's get some good training thunderstorms in here Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

[famartin]

Down here April only had 10 days of measurable rainfall, most falling in one day. 

Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

[IsentropicLift]

Quite the precipitation gradient in April from NW to SE across the area.

[IsentropicLift]

If you want to get a good laugh pull up the 12z GGEM. It cuts the low off over the lakes next week, then spawns a tropical storm off the Florida coast out of thin air that essentially gets pulled up the coast. It's like a poor mans version of Irene. Spits out 5"+ of rain.

 

[forkyfork]

Ensembles in good agreement on a cool start to May with no meaningful warm ups in the distant future. Rain also looks to be above average as we head into May.

 

first 5 days of may at ewr

temp:

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 61.7

DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.1

precip:

TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.10

DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.51

[IsentropicLift]

first 5 days of may at ewr

temp:

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 61.7

DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.1

precip:

TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.10

DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.51

Give me a freakin break. It has rained plenty here. Way to cherry pick a site that fancy's your agenda. The rest of the month we'll make up for any lost ground.

[famartin]

Quite the precipitation gradient in April from NW to SE across the area.

Um... no.

 

http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=1399334400&yday_analysis=0&layer[]=0&layer[]=1&layer[]=4&timetype=YM&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=current&timeYYYY=2014&timeMM=4&product=observed&loc=stateNJ

[IsentropicLift]

Um... no.

 

http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=1399334400&yday_analysis=0&layer[]=0&layer[]=1&layer[]=4&timetype=YM&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=current&timeYYYY=2014&timeMM=4&product=observed&loc=stateNJ

That's a bit misleading because most of what fell over southeastern areas all fell in the same 24 hour period whereas NW areas have seen more days with measureable rain. For example it rained here Saturday and Sunday but most places further SE like Monmouth County received nothing.

[famartin]

Give me a freakin break. It has rained plenty here. Way to cherry pick a site that fancy's your agenda. The rest of the month we'll make up for any lost ground.

He has a point.  You argued for cool; its been warm.  Forecast for the next week:

     /69    46/67    53/62    53/68    56/75    57/73    57/73    

Compared to normal, that comes to

     / 0    -4/-2    +2/-8    +2/-2    +5/+5    +5/+2    +5/+2    

Overall that comes out to +12.  Or an average departure of +1.

[IsentropicLift]

He has a point.  You argued for cool; its been warm.  Forecast for the next week:

     /69    46/67    53/62    53/68    56/75    57/73    57/73    

Compared to normal, that comes to

     / 0    -4/-2    +2/-8    +2/-2    +5/+5    +5/+2    +5/+2    

Overall that comes out to +12.  Or an average departure of +1.

I made one post, and on 4/28 nobody challenged that the ensembles showed something different. The fact of the matter is it has been cool. We dipped to the low 30's here the other night and most days haven't gotten out of the 60's. He picked EWR which is always warmer than surrounding areas due to UHF. Not to mention the site is sandwiched between a runway and the Turnpike. Give me the numbers for KMMU.

[IsentropicLift]

Hope you all thoroughly enjoy the diving NAO next week.

 

[famartin]

That's a bit misleading because most of what fell over southeastern areas all fell in the same 24 hour period whereas NW areas have seen more days with measureable rain. For example it rained here Saturday and Sunday but most places further SE like Monmouth County received nothing.

You said April, so I looked at April.  You're real close to Caldwell, so here's Caldwell

 

Caldwell

 1      60     30      0 2      55     36      0 3      66     39   0.07 4      46     38   0.11 5      53     38      0 6      60     32      0 7      51     35   0.30 8      64     44   0.11 9      60     37      010      65     31      011      75     48      T12      73     42      013      82     45      014      78     62      015      66     32   0.8516      47     30      017      48     32      018      50     31      019      67     37      020      57     38      021      69     33      022      73     44      T23      59     43      024      61     40      025      62     36   0.0526      64     43   0.5327      63     44      028      64     37      029      52     42   0.0530      52     40   3.30

versus Newark

 1      61     37      0 2      53     41   0.02 3      64     42   0.10 4      47     41   0.25 5      57     40      T 6      62     35      0 7      51     40   0.47 8      67     45   0.33 9      65     44      010      64     38      011      77     52      T12      74     50      013      83     51      014      80     62      015      67     33   0.7816      50     31   0.0117      47     34      018      49     36      019      69     38      020      54     42      021      64     37      022      76     48      T23      63     44      T24      64     42      025      59     42   0.0426      68     47   0.6627      60     46      028      66     43      029      52     44   0.0530      55     42   5.24

[famartin]

I made one post, and on 4/28 nobody challenged that the ensembles showed something different. The fact of the matter is it has been cool. We dipped to the low 30's here the other night and most days haven't gotten out of the 60's. He picked EWR which is always warmer than surrounding areas due to UHF. Not to mention the site is sandwiched between a runway and the Turnpike. Give me the numbers for KMMU.

 

Caldwell's first 5 days of the month:

 1      77     49   +6.9      0.16 2      66     49   +1.1         0 3      69     46   +0.8      0.01 4      63     49   -1.0         T 5      68     49   +1.2         0

[IsentropicLift]

 

You said April, so I looked at April.  You're real close to Caldwell, so here's Caldwell

 

Caldwell

 1      60     30      0 2      55     36      0 3      66     39   0.07 4      46     38   0.11 5      53     38      0 6      60     32      0 7      51     35   0.30 8      64     44   0.11 9      60     37      010      65     31      011      75     48      T12      73     42      013      82     45      014      78     62      015      66     32   0.8516      47     30      017      48     32      018      50     31      019      67     37      020      57     38      021      69     33      022      73     44      T23      59     43      024      61     40      025      62     36   0.0526      64     43   0.5327      63     44      028      64     37      029      52     42   0.0530      52     40   3.30

versus Newark

 1      61     37      0 2      53     41   0.02 3      64     42   0.10 4      47     41   0.25 5      57     40      T 6      62     35      0 7      51     40   0.47 8      67     45   0.33 9      65     44      010      64     38      011      77     52      T12      74     50      013      83     51      014      80     62      015      67     33   0.7816      50     31   0.0117      47     34      018      49     36      019      69     38      020      54     42      021      64     37      022      76     48      T23      63     44      T24      64     42      025      59     42   0.0426      68     47   0.6627      60     46      028      66     43      029      52     44   0.0530      55     42   5.24

The first 2/3rds of April were dry and my post was made on April 28th so I'm not sure how you say it covers all Month.

[IsentropicLift]

I just pulled up the stats on Weather underground (07444)

 

May 1 +10

May 2 -4

May 3 +1

May 4 -5

May 5 +3

 

Overall temperature departure = +5 which is being skewed by the one +10 departure day on May 5th.

 

Now if we look at April 29th and April 30th.

 

April 29 -14

April 30 -14

 

So the last two days of April were -28.

 

So since I made my post on 4/28 I've been a grand total of -23F below normal.

[famartin]

Quite the precipitation gradient in April from NW to SE across the area.

The first 2/3rds of April were dry and my post was made on April 28th so I'm not sure how you say it covers all Month.

That's not what you said.  You said the above.  April.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[IsentropicLift]

That's not what you said.  You said the above.  April.  Nothing more, nothing less.

The last seven days, where did I say anything referencing specifically the month of April?