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uncle W

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 The 12z GFS has lower to middle 80s for highs next week for NYC metro:

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/29/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO N/X  53  72| 57  76| 54  76| 59  82| 66  84| 65  83| 64  83| 63 58 78 TMP  57  66| 61  68| 60  70| 64  75| 70  76| 69  76| 69  75| 68       DPT  48  50| 48  47| 46  49| 52  58| 61  61| 56  56| 55  54| 53       
KLGA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/29/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO N/X  55  71| 58  74| 56  75| 62  82| 67  83| 67  82| 65  82| 65 59 77 TMP  57  65| 60  67| 59  69| 65  75| 70  75| 69  75| 68  75| 68       DPT  47  50| 49  48| 44  48| 51  58| 62  63| 56  55| 54  54| 52   
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with 6 degree days today it brings the season total to 4962 in KNYC...normal is 4712...tomorrow might add one or two more and we might see two or three before June...over the last 20 years we had as many as 47 degree days in 2003...Last year there was no degree days recorded...this happened at least five more times before that...The most on record is 78 in 1945...KNYC needs 38 more degree days for 5000...

season.....amount since 1960...

1976-77.....5435

1977-78.....5364

2002-03.....5296

1962-63.....5265

1969-70.....5221

1967-68.....5185

1966-67.....5172

1995-96.....5155

1960-61.....5047

1993-94.....5021

1981-82.....5010

1970-71.....4997

2000-01.....4988

2013-14.....4962

most June degree days since 1960...

47 in 2003

40 in 1997

36 in 1982

31 in 2000

31 in 1988

30 in 1965

29 in 2009

29 in 1998

27 in 1977

27 in 1974

26 in 1972




			
		
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Looks like chances are diminishing that anyone in the metro will reach 90 by June 10th - also as of right now I doubt if June will average above normal temps in most of the metro - civilized comments welcomed

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

I think it could be humid for several days over the next 10 or so days, but I think your right about 90 degrees.

I think its way to early to tell on above or below normal for the month though. The pattern towards the end of June could be wildly different. We also start to get chances for real sustained heat in the second half of the month

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Looks like chances are diminishing that anyone in the metro will reach 90 by June 10th - also as of right now  I doubt if June will average above normal temps in most of the metro  -  civilized  comments welcomed

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

Yeah guidance seems to have tempered any ridging of substance through day 7 at least.  Still will be some warm days mixed in and overall still looks close to average.  This year may be following past Junes trends where heat came towards the end of the month.  Monday/Tue look above normal before front and storms come through.  Continues hint the WAR builds west to a point but thay may mean more humid/wet than hot towards the 8th...

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There's no big heat signal we often start to see right now, the WAR is weak to nonexistent and I see plenty of convective chances heading forward. Low 80s will probably be the best we can do right now, which is only a bit above normal in early June.

It looks like May will end up at a +1 to +1.5 for many, but it hasn't felt like the typical above normal month. I'm guessing June could end up cooler with respect to departures and end up near 0 or normal.

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This looks like a start of summer for LI where we'll be almost bored with not much to track. Heat waves dont look to be making any appearances yet and the storm chances i fully expect to be confined to west of NYC as usual. 70's and 80's with some humid days until further notice. LR models have gotten cooler as well.

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0z GFS and Euro look very warm and humid with some scattered t-storms for between Tuesday and Thursday. The GFS MOS has a high 90 on Wed for Newark. We've been getting this 3-4 day intense warm surges under -EPO regime, since Winter:

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/31/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       SAT  31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07 CLIMO X/N  76| 51  78| 58  83| 68  86| 70  90| 69  83| 64  80| 63  82 58 78 TMP  67| 59  71| 64  77| 73  79| 75  81| 73  75| 68  73| 67  75       DPT  44| 41  44| 52  59| 65  66| 64  64| 61  60| 57  54| 55  55      
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with 6 degree days today it brings the season total to 4962 in KNYC...normal is 4712...tomorrow might add one or two more and we might see two or three before June...over the last 20 years we had as many as 47 degree days in 2003...Last year there was no degree days recorded...this happened at least five more times before that...The most on record is 78 in 1945...KNYC needs 38 more degree days for 5000...

season.....amount since 1960...

1976-77.....5435

1977-78.....5364

2002-03.....5296

1962-63.....5265

1969-70.....5221

1967-68.....5185

1966-67.....5172

1995-96.....5155

1960-61.....5047

1993-94.....5021

1981-82.....5010

1970-71.....4997

2000-01.....4988

2013-14.....4962

most June degree days since 1960...

47 in 2003

40 in 1997

36 in 1982

31 in 2000

31 in 1988

30 in 1965

29 in 2009

29 in 1998

27 in 1977

27 in 1974

26 in 1972


 

 

Significant difference in degree days for here vs NYC. I'm at 5569 for heating DD's on the season. Wonder what the highest season was around here. Thinking maybe close to 6,000 or so.

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Significant difference in degree days for here vs NYC. I'm at 5569 for heating DD's on the season. Wonder what the highest season was around here. Thinking maybe close to 6,000 or so.

Your area looks so rural you might as well be 500 miles from NYC. Your lows add a huge amount to your total HDDs.

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