Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 last few events have underperformed based on what models showed several days out... With the gfs though it was still printing out these high amounts while it should have been raining and all the convection was over 50 miles south of the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 The 12z GFS has lower to middle 80s for highs next week for NYC metro: KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/29/2014 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO N/X 53 72| 57 76| 54 76| 59 82| 66 84| 65 83| 64 83| 63 58 78 TMP 57 66| 61 68| 60 70| 64 75| 70 76| 69 76| 69 75| 68 DPT 48 50| 48 47| 46 49| 52 58| 61 61| 56 56| 55 54| 53 KLGA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/29/2014 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO N/X 55 71| 58 74| 56 75| 62 82| 67 83| 67 82| 65 82| 65 59 77 TMP 57 65| 60 67| 59 69| 65 75| 70 75| 69 75| 68 75| 68 DPT 47 50| 49 48| 44 48| 51 58| 62 63| 56 55| 54 54| 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Next week doesnt look too bad at all. 80's widespread but not oppressive heat yet. We'll see if this forecast sticks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Only mid 60s despite partly cloudy skies. It doesn't matter how high the sun angle is the marine influence is too strong to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Only mid 60s despite partly cloudy skies. It doesn't matter how high the sun angle is the marine influence is too strong to overcome. Today is the coldest day of the month so far at EWR with regard to departure from normal (-9) and is the first -5 or greater so far this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Only mid 60s despite partly cloudy skies. It doesn't matter how high the sun angle is the marine influence is too strong to overcome. Yep. See, e.g., the entire central california coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 with 6 degree days today it brings the season total to 4962 in KNYC...normal is 4712...tomorrow might add one or two more and we might see two or three before June...over the last 20 years we had as many as 47 degree days in 2003...Last year there was no degree days recorded...this happened at least five more times before that...The most on record is 78 in 1945...KNYC needs 38 more degree days for 5000... season.....amount since 1960... 1976-77.....5435 1977-78.....5364 2002-03.....5296 1962-63.....5265 1969-70.....5221 1967-68.....5185 1966-67.....5172 1995-96.....5155 1960-61.....5047 1993-94.....5021 1981-82.....5010 1970-71.....4997 2000-01.....4988 2013-14.....4962 most June degree days since 1960... 47 in 2003 40 in 1997 36 in 1982 31 in 2000 31 in 1988 30 in 1965 29 in 2009 29 in 1998 27 in 1977 27 in 1974 26 in 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 The GFS would seem to suggest a decent environment for thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon, but I'm a little shaky with regard to convection parameters. I think this looks intriguing, though (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Looks like chances are diminishing that anyone in the metro will reach 90 by June 10th - also as of right now I doubt if June will average above normal temps in most of the metro - civilized comments welcomed http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Looks like chances are diminishing that anyone in the metro will reach 90 by June 10th - also as of right now I doubt if June will average above normal temps in most of the metro - civilized comments welcomed http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr I think it could be humid for several days over the next 10 or so days, but I think your right about 90 degrees.I think its way to early to tell on above or below normal for the month though. The pattern towards the end of June could be wildly different. We also start to get chances for real sustained heat in the second half of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Euro weeklies show a cool and wet pattern developing in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Euro weeklies show a cool and wet pattern developing in June Good for storms right. Will not need to worry about backdoor fronts after June 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 the weeklies have had a cold bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Looks like chances are diminishing that anyone in the metro will reach 90 by June 10th - also as of right now I doubt if June will average above normal temps in most of the metro - civilized comments welcomed http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Yeah guidance seems to have tempered any ridging of substance through day 7 at least. Still will be some warm days mixed in and overall still looks close to average. This year may be following past Junes trends where heat came towards the end of the month. Monday/Tue look above normal before front and storms come through. Continues hint the WAR builds west to a point but thay may mean more humid/wet than hot towards the 8th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 There's no big heat signal we often start to see right now, the WAR is weak to nonexistent and I see plenty of convective chances heading forward. Low 80s will probably be the best we can do right now, which is only a bit above normal in early June. It looks like May will end up at a +1 to +1.5 for many, but it hasn't felt like the typical above normal month. I'm guessing June could end up cooler with respect to departures and end up near 0 or normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 This looks like a start of summer for LI where we'll be almost bored with not much to track. Heat waves dont look to be making any appearances yet and the storm chances i fully expect to be confined to west of NYC as usual. 70's and 80's with some humid days until further notice. LR models have gotten cooler as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 71 right now. So beautiful outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Thunderstorms rolling through across the Hudson. Wind picked up drastically as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Just had a brief gusty shower. I'd estimate winds gusted to ~35mph. Temp also dropped 9 degrees from 73 to 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Heavy burst of rain otherwise yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 0z GFS and Euro look very warm and humid with some scattered t-storms for between Tuesday and Thursday. The GFS MOS has a high 90 on Wed for Newark. We've been getting this 3-4 day intense warm surges under -EPO regime, since Winter: KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/31/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07 CLIMO X/N 76| 51 78| 58 83| 68 86| 70 90| 69 83| 64 80| 63 82 58 78 TMP 67| 59 71| 64 77| 73 79| 75 81| 73 75| 68 73| 67 75 DPT 44| 41 44| 52 59| 65 66| 64 64| 61 60| 57 54| 55 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Time to turn the calendar page to June 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43767-june-2014/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Time to turn the calendar page to June 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43767-june-2014/ What about the next 13 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Like the heavy rain and thunder happening now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 thought today was going to be 70s and sunny. yeah.. 60F cloudy and and a few drops of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 with 6 degree days today it brings the season total to 4962 in KNYC...normal is 4712...tomorrow might add one or two more and we might see two or three before June...over the last 20 years we had as many as 47 degree days in 2003...Last year there was no degree days recorded...this happened at least five more times before that...The most on record is 78 in 1945...KNYC needs 38 more degree days for 5000... season.....amount since 1960... 1976-77.....5435 1977-78.....5364 2002-03.....5296 1962-63.....5265 1969-70.....5221 1967-68.....5185 1966-67.....5172 1995-96.....5155 1960-61.....5047 1993-94.....5021 1981-82.....5010 1970-71.....4997 2000-01.....4988 2013-14.....4962 most June degree days since 1960... 47 in 2003 40 in 1997 36 in 1982 31 in 2000 31 in 1988 30 in 1965 29 in 2009 29 in 1998 27 in 1977 27 in 1974 26 in 1972 Significant difference in degree days for here vs NYC. I'm at 5569 for heating DD's on the season. Wonder what the highest season was around here. Thinking maybe close to 6,000 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Significant difference in degree days for here vs NYC. I'm at 5569 for heating DD's on the season. Wonder what the highest season was around here. Thinking maybe close to 6,000 or so. Your area looks so rural you might as well be 500 miles from NYC. Your lows add a huge amount to your total HDDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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