SACRUS Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Really lucked out this past Memorial weekend. Can you imagine if it was like this a couple of days ago. We lucked out a few years, last year we had 40 degree weather 2 days prior. All in all not bad and we deal with this for a day and 1/2 and then cool but very nice fri - sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 The GFS continues to be the most enthusiastic with the ridge and subsequent warmth building in next week. By no means is this a super hot airmass as projected but by mon - wed look warm with potentially another run at 90 for many areas. We'll see where it goes on the rest of the guidance. Also kinda normal-ish look after that perhaps overall warmer than normal if ever so slightly beyond day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 The CFS is going with above normal temps here in June. But the interesting thing to watch for is if we do it the same way as this month. This month was defined by above normal average temperatures but lackluster high temperatures only maxing out in upper 80's at Newark. We probably need a few weeks to see how things evolve. We should eventually see some 90 degree days at some point during the month, but real June heat has been defined by 95 and up at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 We lucked out a few years, last year we had 40 degree weather 2 days prior. All in all not bad and we deal with this for a day and 1/2 and then cool but very nice fri - sun. I mean I love this kind of weather. It would be great to have a few days of warmth and then a few days of cool going back and forth all summer. While there's an above normal look for June, I don't expect anything too crazy or record breaking. I doubt we see a lot of 90F days for June TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 The CFS is going with above normal temps here in June. But the interesting thing to watch for is if we do it the same way as this month. This month was defined by above normal average temperatures but lackluster high temperatures only maxing out in upper 80's at Newark. We probably need a few weeks to see how things evolve. We should eventually see some 90 degree days at some point during the month, but real June heat has been defined by 95 and up at Newark. CFSv2.NaT2m.20140528.201406.gif Considering Newark seems to hit 90 under airmasses conducive for mid 80s in the summer, I would agree that 95F defines real heat for them. If June is in fact warmer than normal in our area, probabilities increase significantly for a warmer than average JJA period overall. Most summers that featured a normal to above normal June yielded the entire JJA normal to above normal (similar to the December -->DJF temp correlation as well). The JMA and ECMWF weeklies generally look near normal for the coming weeks, with periods of above and below. Right now I'm not seeing any strong signals for big cold or big heat for the month of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 The CFS is going with above normal temps here in June. But the interesting thing to watch for is if we do it the same way as this month. This month was defined by above normal average temperatures but lackluster high temperatures only maxing out in upper 80's at Newark. We probably need a few weeks to see how things evolve. We should eventually see some 90 degree days at some point during the month, but real June heat has been defined by 95 and up at Newark. CFSv2.NaT2m.20140528.201406.gif Interesingly in this last stretch of hot summers (2005,06,08,10,11,12,13) only June 2008 and 05 stood out as the hottest against normals or featured the hottest temps of the season. 2011 was near normal as was last year. I still think we'll follow the past few years and see a period in July as the hottest against the mean and hottest of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 A very balmy 61 degrees out there.. 26 degrees lower than yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Before it was 88 in dc and 40s in boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Before it was 88 in dc and 40s in boston That was similar to my basement and upstairs yesterday afternoon. GFS hinting the Western Atlantic ridge flexes west a bit the middle of next week. We'll see to what extent looks like it could lead to more of a humid flow after some early week warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 North America with the exception of the U.S ,SW has clearly been the below normal bullseye . Those below normal departures have been trapped there Since NOV . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 going from hot to cold this time of year isn't new...It has happened many times before...The Ocean played a big roll each time...I remember when I was 12 we had a record high temp set on June 13th of 96...The next day it was 88 when a cold front passed with thunder storms dropping the temperature to 53 before midnight...the next day's max/min was 66/54...Then it got hot again a few days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Rain Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Clearing working its way south through most of staten island now http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 is that total clearing ? seems to be having a hard time making it further south Clearing working its way south through most of staten island now http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Went down to 50 here in Brooklyn. Up to 55 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 is that total clearing ? seems to be having a hard time making it further south Cleared out in a hurry here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 What's up with Newark hitting 87 yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 What's up with Newark hitting 87 yesterday? Yesterday? where did you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Newark ASOS reported 24hr max at 87. It was also used in the climo report. But it doesn't look right at all based on the hourly obs: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 tue/wed looks active with a humid airmass, a front nearby, and an approaching s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 This thread has been so much easier to read...great stuff guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Yes so much better without that debbie downer posting.....sun poking out now here..gonna be a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 tue/wed looks active with a humid airmass, a front nearby, and an approaching s/w The Euro has been hinting at this for awhile now and the 12z GFS is a soaker from Monday through much of Wednesday. We might get in on some remnant tropical rains as well should something get going in the gulf or Caribbean and propagate around the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge. Wet fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 tue/wed looks active with a humid airmass, a front nearby, and an approaching s/w looks like we may avoid 90 the first 10 days of June - going to be difficult for June to be above normal in the temp department IMO http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Yes so much better without that debbie downer posting.....sun poking out now here..gonna be a nice day Beautiful day for mowing..blue sky's here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 that back door front really made it far southwest into South Carolina for this time of the year - in fact that is what is helping us clear out here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/usfntsfcwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 so lucky. the cloud line is just SW of us and stalled http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 The Euro has been hinting at this for awhile now and the 12z GFS is a soaker from Monday through much of Wednesday. We might get in on some remnant tropical rains as well should something get going in the gulf or Caribbean and propagate around the periphery of the western Atlantic ridge. Wet fun times ahead. I don't trust the gfs in the qpf department. It was insistent we'd see widespread 1"+ amounts Tuesday and many of us saw nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 I don't trust the gfs in the qpf department. It was insistent we'd see widespread 1"+ amounts Tuesday and many of us saw nothing last few events have underperformed based on what models showed several days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 I don't trust the gfs in the qpf department. It was insistent we'd see widespread 1"+ amounts Tuesday and many of us saw nothingit has convective feedback problems (all models do to some extent btw). there are also lots of occasions where it develops widespread convective precip too early in the day and lowballs high temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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