Weathergun Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 The Euro is trending warmer and toward it's ensemble mean. 70s and 80s reaching NE NJ and NYC on May 9-10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 The Euro is trending warmer and toward it's ensemble mean. 70s and 80s reaching NE NJ and NYC on May 9-10th For a few days before the bottom falls out. Plus that cut off low is well agreed upton to develop days 8-10 and once that happens goodbye warm and incoming rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'm going with true. In fact I think KNYC will reach 90 degrees or higher less than ten times this year. we need our Uncle W tell us exactly how many times that has happened - NYC not reaching 90 at least 1 time through 7/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'll bite on the back and forth pattern, I certainly don't see the warmth sustaining for a long time, but I'll go with +1 this month as some have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 we need our Uncle W tell us exactly how many times that has happened - NYC not reaching 90 at least 1 time through 7/15. here are some 90 degree facts... monthly 90 degrees days...... Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals... 1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37....................... 1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8 1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11 1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24 1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30 1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15 1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29 1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13 1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19 1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10 1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27 1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7 1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14 1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9 1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12 1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16 1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16 1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25 1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6 1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15 1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9 1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22 1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9 1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4 1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17 1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13 1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7 1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10 1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14 1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4 1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16 1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22 1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15 1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6 1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31 1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9 1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8 1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9 1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19 1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26 1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17 1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10 1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34 1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9 1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26 1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22 1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23 1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6 1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17 1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11 1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26 2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12 2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17 2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33 2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17 2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7 2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30 2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22 2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23 2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19 2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8 2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48 2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19 2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28 2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17........... ....................................................................................................... year...90+...100+....max 1930...17......1......102 1931...21......0.......99 1932...15......0.......96 1933...21......2......102 1934...15......1......101 1935...10......0.......95 1936...26......2......106 1937...22......2......100 1938...15......0.......96 1939...24......0.......96 1940...17......0.......98 1941...29......0.......98 1942...12......0.......97 1943...27......0.......99 1944...37......3......102 1945...18......0.......97 1946.....9......0.......94 1947.....9......0.......95 1948...13......3......103 1949...29......2......102 1950.....6......0.......95 1951.....7......0.......94 1952...24......1......100 1953...32......4......102 1954...17......2......100 1955...25......3......100 1956...11......0.......99 1957...21......2......101 1958.....6......0.......93 1959...27......0.......97 1960.....5......0.......91 1961...29......0.......97 1962...18......0.......99 1963...16......0.......98 1964...23......0.......99 1965...15......0.......95 1966...35......4......103 1967.....9......0.......96 1968...17......0.......98 1969...16......0.......97 1970...22......0.......94 1971...18......0.......96 1972...15......0.......94 1973...18......0.......98 1974...17......0.......95 1975.....8......0.......98 1976...15......0.......96 1977...23......3......104 1978...11......0.......95 1979...18......0.......95 1980...32......2......102 1981...16......0.......96 1982...11......0.......98 1983...36......0.......99 1984...10......0.......96 1985.....9......0.......95 1986...11......0.......98 1987...22......0.......97 1988...32......0.......99 1989...16......0.......96 1990...13......0.......95 1991...39......2......102 1992.....9......0.......93 1993...39......3......102 1994...19......0.......98 1995...29......1......102 1996.....3......0.......96 1997...12......0.......97 1998.....8......0.......93 1999...27......2......101 2000.....7......0.......93 2001...15......1......103 2002...32......0.......98 2003.....8......0.......94 2004.....2......0.......91 2005...23......0.......99 2006.....8......0.......97 2007...10......0.......92 2008...12......0.......96 2009.....7......0.......92 2010...37......2......103 2011...20......2......104 2012...19......1......100 2013...17......0........98 ............................................. Most & Least 90+ days.(annual) 39 in 1993.....1 in 1902 39 in 1991.....2 in 2004 37 in 1944.....2 in 1889 37 in 2010.....2 in 1887 36 in 1983.....2 in 1877 35 in 1966.....3 in 1996 32 in 2002.....4 in 1871 32 in 1988.....4 in 1875 32 in 1980.....5 in 1960 32 in 1953.....6 in 2000 29 in 1995.....6 in 1958 29 in 1961.....6 in 1950 29 in 1949.....6 in 1917 29 in 1941.....6 in 1903 ....................6 in 1888 ................................................ latest 1st 90 degree day... 1877...7/26 1985...7/14 1960...7/12 1902...7/09 1926...7/09 1886...7/08 1982...7/08 1916...7/07 1935...7/06 1897...7/05 1928...7/04 1911...7/02 1972...7/02 1917...7/02 1878...7/01 1903...7/01 1958...7/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Thanks for the stats Unc - so only 1 time in recorded history has the first 90 degree day at NYC happened after July 15 - hear that YanksFan ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Thanks for the stats Unc - so only 1 time in recorded history has the first 90 degree day at NYC happened after July 15 - hear that YanksFan ? point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 This is the type of pattern that could feature above normal precipitation with best normal temperatures. This also seems like a period where there could be some some really rogue warm temperatures. For a day at a time I feel like 80s to near 90 could be pushed in favored locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Getting 80s this time of year is no longer as big of a deal then if it were earlier in the season. I had 80 yesterday and many places in nj saw 80 as well. I think your thermometer is running a bit warm. The only official station to hit 80 on Thursday was Teterboro (which I kinda think has been running hot lately). "Official" highs on Thursday: 12N 74 ACY 75 BLM 75 CDW 77 EWR 78 FWN 77 LDJ 79 MIV 75 MJX 77 MMU 77 NEL 77 SMQ 77 TEB 80 TTN 77 VAY 77 WRI 78 WWD 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 You're talking 10-14 days so any accuracy is very nill for that time frame. I've read hints of a warm pattern by or after mid month but even that's too far to speculate so I'm gonna say things look near normal for at least the next 7 days after today. Also like you've stated, 70s become normal soon so it'll feel warm regardless and I usually expect mostly 70s to 80 after mid month anyway. We're talking about the Euro ensembles here which are reliable. They mean has below normal temps days 1-8, average to above normal temps days 9-14 and then below normal temps days 14-16. Ensembles are more accurate in the long term, yes, but that doesn't mean they are golden. And they are better at gauging an overall pattern than any particular disturbance/storm. Just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 We pull together a string of several months cooler than normal and much of the public acts like this is unprecedented. 2010-2012 was so extreme with the warmth that I think it skewed people's views of what "normal" really is. This spring has certainly been colder than normal, but IMO the past 6 months have been a nice, refreshing change from the seemingly eternal hell of 2010-12. Uh oh, I agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Here are the other dates over the last 30 years when the first 80 degree of spring at NYC occurred in May. This was more common before the 2000's. We are already later than 1993 and will be later than 2000 and 1987 with the cooler highs in the forecast. 5-5-00.....86 5-19-97...83 5-16-95...80 5-1-93.....82 5-23-88...83 5-7-87.....81 5-23-84...81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Looks like after another wet period 5/10-13 storm track moves farther north (all along US_Can. border) and puts us on southerly edge of any rainstorms. The 850's after a 5/15 slippage rise nicely to near 15C on 5/17-19. I can not see us getting out of the current 16 day forecast period w/o some days in the 80's. We will be just 1SD away from a high of 80 with low 90's as the record by end of period anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Some of the latest guidance is hinting that the backdoor may hang up over the area with NJ possibly getting to above 80 while areas east experience a cooler onshore flow. But we'll see how things go over the next week or so. The GFS/DGEX combo broke toward the Euro, while the Euro ENS looks a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 point? point is you are predicting it too happen this year - care to change your prediction ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 Mays coldest monthly maximums for KNYC...a few of these years had an 80 degree temp in March or April...I'm sticking to my guess of 86 for 2014 later in the month... 75 in 192479 in 200579 in 200379 in 198379 in 192879 in 192779 in 191580 in 196880 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 The euro weeklies are going with back door issues through the whole month. So we'll have to take the warm days where we can find them. The posters especially on Long Island never like to see that perma-trough parked east of New England this time of year. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-june/26424530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 Uh oh, I agree with you That must mean you're finally right about something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 The euro weeklies are going with back door issues through the whole month. So we'll have to take the warm days where we can find them. The posters especially on Long Island never like to see that perma-trough parked east of New England this time of year. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-june/26424530 +PNA/MJO also support an East Coast trough mid-May. Maybe more heat late-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 3, 2014 Author Share Posted May 3, 2014 That must mean you're finally right about something. the average annual temperature at KNYC for the 2010's is running well above previous normals... ten yr ave.temp....highest.....lowest. 1870's.........51.8..........53.6.........49.4 1880's.........51.6..........53.2.........49.3 1890's.........52.9..........54.6.........50.4 1900's.........53.1..........55.0.........50.7 1910's.........53.0..........55.0.........50.7 1920's.........53.1..........54.9.........51.2 1930's.........54.4..........55.8.........53.0 1940's.........54.3..........56.9.........51.9 1950's.........54.8..........57.0.........52.5 1960's.........54.2..........55.1.........53.0 1970's.........54.6..........56.1.........53.0 1980's.........55.1..........56.0.........54.0 1990's.........55.6..........57.2.........53.7 2000's.........55.1..........56.8.........53.4 2010's.........56.4..........57.3.........55.3...(2010-2013) the record is 57.3 set in 2012... this year is running cooler than average and if it keeps up it will be the coolest since 2009's 54.0 average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 +PNA/MJO also support an East Coast trough mid-May. Maybe more heat late-May. It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the coolest spring temperatures going back 20 years. 2008 featured the coolest spring high temperatures across the region of the last 20 spring period. Spring 2008 (MAM) highs...Spring 14 so far NYC....84....78 LGA....85....77 JFK.....79....71 EWR...87....83 ISP.....77....69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 4, 2014 Author Share Posted May 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the coolest spring temperatures going back 20 years. 2008 featured the coolest spring high temperatures across the region of the last 20 spring period. Spring 2008 (MAM) highs...Spring 14 so far NYC....84....78 LGA....85....77 JFK.....79....71 EWR...87....83 ISP.....77....69 all time KNYC lowest Spring max... 75 in 1924 80 in 1882 81 in 1967 81 in 1916 81 in 1905 81 in 1897 81 in 1892 81 in 1890 82 in 1968 82 in 1958+ other years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 Just had some thunder and lightning with a batch of heavier showers moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 Just had some thunder and lightning with a batch of heavier showers moving in Tomorrow should be pretty active too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 still no real warmup in site - although there could be a couple days we approach 80 especially inland http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 55 and cloudy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 12z HRRR shows some convection over NYC metro between 18z and 21z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 still no real warmup in site - although there could be a couple days we approach 80 especially inland http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Euro is way different than the GFS. Lets see who is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 12z HRRR shows some convection over NYC metro between 18z and 21z today. With such steep low level lapse rates, any heavier cells could produce wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Could also see some isolated small hail reports with the low freezing level. But we'll see if we can get the coverage of the HRRR since the NAM and GFS are drier. This will be a nice HRRR test to see if it can beat NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 4, 2014 Share Posted May 4, 2014 Does this mean May will finish below average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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