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uncle W

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I'm going with true. In fact I think KNYC will reach 90 degrees or higher less than ten times this year.

we need our Uncle W tell us exactly how many times that has happened - NYC not reaching 90 at least 1 time through 7/15. 

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we need our Uncle W tell us exactly how many times that has happened - NYC not reaching 90 at least 1 time through 7/15. 

here are some 90 degree facts...

monthly 90 degrees days......

Season.....Apr...May...June.July.Aug...Sept....total...LGA's totals...

1944..........0.......1.......5....17....11......3.........37.......................

1950..........0.......0.......4......2.....0.......0..........6..........8

1951..........0.......1.......0......5.....1.......0..........7.........11

1952..........0.......0.......6....14.....1.......3.........24........24

1953..........0.......1.......8....11.....8.......4.........32........30

1954..........0.......0.......3....12.....2.......0.........17........15

1955..........0.......1.......0....14....10......0.........25........29

1956..........0.......0.......5......2.....4.......0.........11........13

1957..........0.......0.......6....10.....3.......2.........21........19

1958..........0.......0.......0......4.....2.......0..........6.........10

1959..........0.......3.......5......3....13......3.........27........27

1960..........0.......0.......0......1.....3.......1..........5..........7

1961..........0.......0.......3....12.....6.......8.........29........14

1962..........1.......3.......5......7.....2.......0.........18.........9

1963..........0.......0.......5....11.....0.......0.........16........12

1964..........0.......2.......7......7.....4.......3.........23........16

1965..........0.......4.......5......4.....1.......1.........15........16

1966..........0.......0.....10....16.....8.......1.........35........25

1967..........0.......0.......5......3.....1.......0..........9..........6

1968..........0.......0.......3......6.....8.......0.........17........15

1969..........0.......2.......3......5.....5.......1.........16.........9

1970..........0.......2.......1......4.....8.......7.........22........22

1971..........0.......0.......5......6.....5.......2.........18..........9

1972..........0.......0.......0....11.....3.......1.........15..........4

1973..........0.......0.......4......4.....6.......4.........18........17

1974..........0.......1.......1....10.....5.......0.........17........13

1975..........0.......1.......1......2.....4.......0..........8..........7

1976..........3.......0.......6......2.....4.......0.........15........10

1977..........1.......2.......0....11.....7.......2.........23........14

1978..........0.......1.......2......3.....5.......0.........11..........4

1979..........0.......2.......0......7.....8.......1.........18........16

1980..........0.......2.......1....11....15......3.........32........22

1981..........0.......0.......2....10......4......0.........16........15

1982..........0.......0.......0....11......0......0.........11..........6

1983..........0.......0.......6....14......9......7.........36........31

1984..........0.......0.......6......1......3......0.........10..........9

1985..........0.......0.......0......4......2......3..........9..........8

1986..........0.......3.......2......6......0......0.........11.........9

1987..........0.......4.......5......9......4......0.........22........19

1988..........0.......1.......8....13....10......0.........32.........26

1989..........0.......0.......3......7......4......2.........16........17

1990..........2.......0.......0......6......4......0.........12........10

1991..........1.......5.......9....12....10......2.........39........34

1992..........0.......2.......0......4......3......0..........9..........9

1993..........0.......1.......5....20....10......3.........39........26

1994..........0.......1.......7......9......2......0.........19........22

1995..........0.......0.......3....11....13......2.........29........23

1996..........0.......2.......0......0......1......0..........3..........6

1997..........0.......0.......5......5......2......0.........12........17

1998..........0.......0.......2......3......2......1..........8........11

1999..........0.......0.......6....18......3......0.........27........26

2000..........0.......3.......3......0......1......0..........7........12

2001..........0.......3.......2......2......8......0.........15........17

2002..........3.......0.......1....12....14......2.........32........33

2003..........0.......0.......4......2......2......0..........8........17

2004..........0.......0.......1......0......1......0..........2..........7

2005..........0.......0.......4......8......9......2.........23........30

2006..........0.......0.......1......4......3......0..........8........22

2007..........0.......2.......2......2......4......0.........10........23

2008..........0.......0.......4......6......1......1.........12........19

2009..........2.......0.......0......0......5......0...........7.........8

2010..........1.......1.......4....16....12......3.........37........48

2011..........0.......0.......3....14......3......0.........20........19

2012..........0.......0.......5....10......3......1.........19........28

2013..........0.......2.......3....10......1......1.........17...........

.......................................................................................................

year...90+...100+....max

1930...17......1......102

1931...21......0.......99

1932...15......0.......96

1933...21......2......102

1934...15......1......101

1935...10......0.......95

1936...26......2......106

1937...22......2......100

1938...15......0.......96

1939...24......0.......96

1940...17......0.......98

1941...29......0.......98

1942...12......0.......97

1943...27......0.......99

1944...37......3......102

1945...18......0.......97

1946.....9......0.......94

1947.....9......0.......95

1948...13......3......103

1949...29......2......102

1950.....6......0.......95

1951.....7......0.......94

1952...24......1......100

1953...32......4......102

1954...17......2......100

1955...25......3......100

1956...11......0.......99

1957...21......2......101

1958.....6......0.......93

1959...27......0.......97

1960.....5......0.......91

1961...29......0.......97

1962...18......0.......99

1963...16......0.......98

1964...23......0.......99

1965...15......0.......95

1966...35......4......103

1967.....9......0.......96

1968...17......0.......98

1969...16......0.......97

1970...22......0.......94

1971...18......0.......96

1972...15......0.......94

1973...18......0.......98

1974...17......0.......95

1975.....8......0.......98

1976...15......0.......96

1977...23......3......104

1978...11......0.......95

1979...18......0.......95

1980...32......2......102

1981...16......0.......96

1982...11......0.......98

1983...36......0.......99

1984...10......0.......96

1985.....9......0.......95

1986...11......0.......98

1987...22......0.......97

1988...32......0.......99

1989...16......0.......96

1990...13......0.......95

1991...39......2......102

1992.....9......0.......93

1993...39......3......102

1994...19......0.......98

1995...29......1......102

1996.....3......0.......96

1997...12......0.......97

1998.....8......0.......93

1999...27......2......101

2000.....7......0.......93

2001...15......1......103

2002...32......0.......98

2003.....8......0.......94

2004.....2......0.......91

2005...23......0.......99

2006.....8......0.......97

2007...10......0.......92

2008...12......0.......96

2009.....7......0.......92

2010...37......2......103

2011...20......2......104

2012...19......1......100

2013...17......0........98

.............................................

Most & Least 90+ days.(annual)

39 in 1993.....1 in 1902

39 in 1991.....2 in 2004

37 in 1944.....2 in 1889

37 in 2010.....2 in 1887

36 in 1983.....2 in 1877

35 in 1966.....3 in 1996

32 in 2002.....4 in 1871

32 in 1988.....4 in 1875

32 in 1980.....5 in 1960

32 in 1953.....6 in 2000

29 in 1995.....6 in 1958

29 in 1961.....6 in 1950

29 in 1949.....6 in 1917

29 in 1941.....6 in 1903

....................6 in 1888

................................................

latest 1st 90 degree day...

1877...7/26

1985...7/14

1960...7/12

1902...7/09

1926...7/09

1886...7/08

1982...7/08

1916...7/07

1935...7/06

1897...7/05

1928...7/04

1911...7/02

1972...7/02

1917...7/02

1878...7/01

1903...7/01

1958...7/01

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Getting 80s this time of year is no longer as big of a deal then if it were earlier in the season. I had 80 yesterday and many places in nj saw 80 as well.

 

I think your thermometer is running a bit warm.  The only official station to hit 80 on Thursday was Teterboro (which I kinda think has been running hot lately).

 

"Official" highs on Thursday:

12N 74

ACY 75

BLM 75

CDW 77

EWR 78

FWN 77

LDJ 79

MIV 75

MJX 77

MMU 77

NEL 77

SMQ 77

TEB 80

TTN 77

VAY 77

WRI 78

WWD 72

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You're talking 10-14 days so any accuracy is very nill for that time frame. I've read hints of a warm pattern by or after mid month but even that's too far to speculate so I'm gonna say things look near normal for at least the next 7 days after today.

Also like you've stated, 70s become normal soon so it'll feel warm regardless and I usually expect mostly 70s to 80 after mid month anyway.

We're talking about the Euro ensembles here which are reliable. They mean has below normal temps days 1-8, average to above normal temps days 9-14 and then below normal temps days 14-16.

Ensembles are more accurate in the long term, yes, but that doesn't mean they are golden.  And they are better at gauging an overall pattern than any particular disturbance/storm.  Just FYI.

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We pull together a string of several months cooler than normal and much of the public acts like this is unprecedented. 2010-2012 was so extreme with the warmth that I think it skewed people's views of what "normal" really is. This spring has certainly been colder than normal, but IMO the past 6 months have been a nice, refreshing change from the seemingly eternal hell of 2010-12.

 

Uh oh, I agree with you :P

 

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Here are the other dates over the last 30 years when the first 80 degree of spring 


at NYC occurred  in May. This was more common before the 2000's. We are


already later than 1993 and will be later than 2000 and 1987 with the cooler


highs in the forecast.


 


5-5-00.....86


5-19-97...83


5-16-95...80


5-1-93.....82


5-23-88...83


5-7-87.....81


5-23-84...81


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Looks like after another wet period 5/10-13 storm track moves farther north (all along US_Can. border) and puts us on southerly edge of any rainstorms.   The 850's after a 5/15 slippage rise nicely to near 15C on 5/17-19.     I can not see us getting out of the current 16 day forecast period w/o some days in the 80's.    We will be just 1SD away from a high of 80 with low 90's as the record by end of period anyway.

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Some of the latest guidance is hinting that the backdoor may hang up over the area

with NJ possibly getting to above 80 while areas east experience a cooler onshore

flow. But we'll see how things go over the next week or so. The GFS/DGEX combo

broke toward the Euro, while the Euro ENS looks a little warmer.

 

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Mays coldest monthly maximums for KNYC...a few of these years had an 80 degree temp in March or April...I'm sticking to my guess of 86 for 2014 later in the month...

75 in 1924
79 in 2005
79 in 2003
79 in 1983
79 in 1928
79 in 1927
79 in 1915
80 in 1968
80 in 1882

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The euro weeklies are going with back door issues through the whole month.

So we'll have to take the warm days where we can find them. The posters

especially on Long Island never like to see that perma-trough parked east

of New England this time of year.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-june/26424530

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The euro weeklies are going with back door issues through the whole month.

So we'll have to take the warm days where we can find them. The posters

especially on Long Island never like to see that perma-trough parked east

of New England this time of year.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-june/26424530

+PNA/MJO also support an East Coast trough mid-May. Maybe more heat late-May.

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That must mean you're finally right about something. ;)

the average annual temperature at KNYC for the 2010's is running well above previous normals...

ten yr ave.temp....highest.....lowest.

1870's.........51.8..........53.6.........49.4

1880's.........51.6..........53.2.........49.3

1890's.........52.9..........54.6.........50.4

1900's.........53.1..........55.0.........50.7

1910's.........53.0..........55.0.........50.7

1920's.........53.1..........54.9.........51.2

1930's.........54.4..........55.8.........53.0

1940's.........54.3..........56.9.........51.9

1950's.........54.8..........57.0.........52.5

1960's.........54.2..........55.1.........53.0

1970's.........54.6..........56.1.........53.0

1980's.........55.1..........56.0.........54.0

1990's.........55.6..........57.2.........53.7

2000's.........55.1..........56.8.........53.4

2010's.........56.4..........57.3.........55.3...(2010-2013)

the record is 57.3 set in 2012...

this year is running cooler than average and if it keeps up it will be the coolest since 2009's 54.0 average...

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+PNA/MJO also support an East Coast trough mid-May. Maybe more heat late-May.

 

It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the coolest spring temperatures going back 20 years.

2008 featured the coolest spring high temperatures across the region of the last 20 spring period.

 

Spring 2008 (MAM) highs...Spring 14 so far

 

NYC....84....78 

LGA....85....77

JFK.....79....71

EWR...87....83

ISP.....77....69

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It will be interesting to see if we can challenge the coolest spring temperatures going back 20 years.

2008 featured the coolest spring high temperatures across the region of the last 20 spring period.

 

Spring 2008 (MAM) highs...Spring 14 so far

 

NYC....84....78 

LGA....85....77

JFK.....79....71

EWR...87....83

ISP.....77....69

all time KNYC lowest Spring max...

75 in 1924

80 in 1882

81 in 1967

81 in 1916

81 in 1905

81 in 1897

81 in 1892

81 in 1890

82 in 1968

82 in 1958+ other years...

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12z HRRR shows some convection over NYC metro between 18z and 21z today.

 

With such steep low level lapse rates, any heavier cells could produce wind gusts in excess of 40 mph.

Could also see some isolated small hail reports with the low freezing level. But we'll see if we can

get the coverage of the HRRR since the NAM and GFS are drier. This will be a nice HRRR test to see

if it can beat NAM and GFS.

 

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