bluewave Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Severe potential especially interior sections with yet another day with steep mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Did manage to radiate down to 63 this morning after still being 70 at 4 am... maybe 90 today at some spots ? if clouds delayed. clouds are here already - although there is a patch of clearing coming this way so a couple hours of full sun near late morning early afternoon could cause Teterboro's thermometer to reach 90 again http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar-rs?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 10z HRRR has the first round of t-storms moving over NNJ and NYC metro around 2pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 10z HRRR has the first round of t-storms moving over NNJ and NYC metro around 2pm: rad8.gif rad9.gif no chance of anyone who gets those storms that early reaching 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 12z OKX sounding reveals modest shear and decent mid-level lapse rates coupled with a weakly unstable atmosphere. Current sun over NNJ should allow for some SBCAPE to build by early afternoon and allow for multicellular clusters of storms and showers to form by early afternoon and propegate towards the region by early evening. Primary threats should be hail and gusty winds with any updrafts that are able to sustain themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Is this going to be one of those rarer "boom boom" (convective) backdoors? Then 50's and drizzle till Flag Day joking here........ Is a June 2009 redux a lock ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Is this going to be one of those rarer "boom boom" (convective) backdoors? Then 50's and drizzle till Flag Day joking here........ Is a June 2009 redux a lock ? June 2009 featured alot of cutoff lows, not sure this pattern is going that way at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Today's already warmer than yesterday was at this time. Currently 81 @ 9:34 am, It feels like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 June 2009 featured alot of cutoff lows, not sure this pattern is going that way at this point... Something just seems very similar and familiar to me... based on May pattern, June 2014 could feature: 90's constantly in DC, while NYC struggles to get to 75 many times for most of June. I think we have measurable rain 20 of the 30 days, and a -2.7 departure June here. Going to suck.... July may have doses of severe and warmer, more humid weather. Just a hunch... The mall snow piles are definitely 100 % gone. June 2014 looks like a ringer, meaning look up and see the toilet seat, we might be in the crapper for awhile, w/ emerging El Nino, like it was in '09. If we get 2009-2010 winter next, nobody would complain. We just have the blank sun missing right now, which might mess it up. I am sure it will go blank in 2 years and stay blank for quite some time with deep solar minimum coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 June average temperature in KNYC for developing el nino years...the long term average since 1870 is about 71.0...1981-2010 is about 71.7...since 1950...71.7...the last four years is 72.7... year...ave temp... 1951...69.8 1957...74.3 1963...70.9 1965...70.1 1968...69.7 1972...67.9 1976...73.2 1982...68.6 1986...71.6 1991...74.1 1994...75.2 1997...70.9 2002...71.4 2004...71.2 2006...71.0 2009...67.5 16yr ave.....71.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 interesting to see some quite warm years in that mix like 1994 and 1957 which were very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 June 2009 featured alot of cutoff lows, not sure this pattern is going that way at this point... June 09 and 96 generally belong in a category of their own, not to say you cannot get some similarities but those 2 years were rarities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 97, 02, 04, 06, and 09 were great summers for convection in the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 June 09 and 96 generally belong in a category of their own, not to say you cannot get some similarities but those 2 years were rarities June 2009 felt more like April for the bulk of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 June 09 and 96 generally belong in a category of their own, not to say you cannot get some similarities but those 2 years were rarities What were our departures in June 2009 by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 A repeat of 2009 would kill me, especially after this past winter and first half of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 What were our departures in June 2009 by the way? -3.7 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Cool Junes have been on the endangered species list at LGA with 2003 and 2009 being the only two below normal years since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Records only back to 1984. But Islip is already at their record daily high 82 from 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Records only back to 1982. But Islip is already at their record daily high 82 from 2006. It's hard to believe they don't have records well above that from 1987, there was a massive heat wave here I think from 5/27-5/30 that year, they must have been victimized by the sea breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 A repeat of 2009 would kill me, especially after this past winter and first half of spring. That was a rough month but we've been generally above normal every June since 2000 so I can't complain. I certainly don't see a repeat this June of that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 interesting to see some quite warm years in that mix like 1994 and 1957 which were very warm 2002 which is another analog in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 LMAO on the suggestion that the warm will be "on-hold" for June. Uh, it's June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 11am temps: NYC 83 LGA 81 JFK 81 EWR 84 TEB 85 ISP 85 HWV 85 FOK 85 Eastern LI are warmer than parts of NYC metro now. I would think Newark will hit 90. But the 13z HRRR continues to show t-storms around 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 LMAO on the suggestion that the warm will be "on-hold" for June. Uh, it's June. The agendas here are funny....there's some that would never say a given month will be above normal and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 June average temperature in KNYC for developing el nino years...the long term average since 1870 is about 71.0...1981-2010 is about 71.7...since 1950...71.7...the last four years is 72.7... year...ave temp... 1951...69.8 1957...74.3 1963...70.9 1965...70.1 1968...69.7 1972...67.9 1976...73.2 1982...68.6 1986...71.6 1991...74.1 1994...75.2 1997...70.9 2002...71.4 2004...71.2 2006...71.0 2009...67.5 16yr ave.....71.1 the only year with a warm May and June was 1991...cool May and June combo...1968...average May/June combo...2006...This year will end up on the warm side...1965, 1982, 1986, 1991, 2004 were warm May's...so it's closer to 1982 which had a very cool June...there is almost equal chances for a warm June, cool June, average June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 exactly...and that's why people need to stop proclaiming this June to be hot/cold/average on May 27th...could go any way at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 exactly...and that's why people need to stop proclaiming this June to be hot/cold/average on May 27th...could go any way at this juncture its going to be cool tomorrow...isn't that a lock for a below normal June??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 its going to be cool tomorrow...isn't that a lock for a below normal June??? lol I think it foretells a warm september maybe +6 or greater. On a seriousn note - appears clouds will limit most 90 degree readings today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 12 noon temps - Toms River reached 90 http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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