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May 2014


uncle W

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This May just goes to show that you can still run temperature departures 

in the +1.6 to +2.2 range at NYC-EWR-LGA-JFK with no 90 degree heat.

looking at the monthly report  ( scroll down in link ) you can see how that happened - many days of the min temp above the avg min and those few days of over 10 degrees above normal max - with only a handful of days below avg overall

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/5/21/MonthlyHistory.html

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looking at the monthly report  ( scroll down in link ) you can see how that happened - many days of the min temp above the avg min and those few days of over 10 degrees above normal max - with only a handful of days below avg overall

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/5/21/MonthlyHistory.html

 

The May 2012  departure was mostly a result of the mins running much greater than average. But this month NYC wont

be able to get as close to 90 as 2012 which had to 89 degree readings at the end. The maxes were only

+1.2 while the mins were +4.2.

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-EDAD05A8-5492-4ABA-A096-22795C7B3A8F.pdf

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I was working outside with my son early this afternoon...there was a gust of wind that blew over my flower pots and I was being bombarded with polly noses (Maple tree seedlings) from the front tree...it was like a micro bust from the cumulus cloud just to my north... before that and after the winds were pretty calm...

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I don't understand the weather pattern that's been keeping warmth away from us. Warm air is typically the dominant force by Memorial Day yet it's still the inferior pattern right now.

It's been above normal by like +2 or more this month with mid to upper 80s expected the next two days. How has the warm air been inferior exactly? Just because we haven't hit 90 yet doesn't mean anything.

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It's been above normal by like +2 or more this month with mid to upper 80s expected the next two days. How has the warm air been inferior exactly? Just because we haven't hit 90 yet doesn't mean anything.

 

May 2013: We had the May 10th warmth, the May 16-17 warmth, the May 20-24 warmth, and the May 29-31 heat wave.

 

May 2014: We had the May 1st warm but rainy day, the May 10th-12th warmth, May 20th, and the Memorial day warmth.

 

It says we might get stuck in the 60s from Wed-Fri. After memorial day, highs in the 60s usually only show up when accompanied by rain. Last year, our only really cold days in June were the day Andrea hit and the day of the rainstorm the week after.

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18z GFS MOS has 90 for Teteboro tomorrow. High temp was 84 today:

KTEB   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    5/25/2014  1800 UTC                       DT /MAY  26                  /MAY  27                /MAY  28        HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18  N/X              59          90          64          89       66     TMP  74 68 64 61 66 78 86 86 78 73 69 66 69 79 85 83 77 72 69 69 78  DPT  48 49 50 51 52 51 50 52 54 58 59 59 59 59 59 60 62 64 64 63 60  CLD  CL CL BK FW CL CL CL FW BK CL BK CL OV SC OV OV OV OV OV OV BK 
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May 2013: We had the May 10th warmth, the May 16-17 warmth, the May 20-24 warmth, and the May 29-31 heat wave.

May 2014: We had the May 1st warm but rainy day, the May 10th-12th warmth, May 20th, and the Memorial day warmth.

It says we might get stuck in the 60s from Wed-Fri. After memorial day, highs in the 60s usually only show up when accompanied by rain. Last year, our only really cold days in June were the day Andrea hit and the day of the rainstorm the week after.

Take a look at the almanac page. Our warmest days can be in the upper 80s/mid 90s and our coolest highs are low to mid 50s so upper 60s and 70s is really not close to how cold it can be.

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It's been above normal by like +2 or more this month with mid to upper 80s expected the next two days. How has the warm air been inferior exactly? Just because we haven't hit 90 yet doesn't mean anything.

I think the mild overnight lows play a part in the departure.

Anyway here's the departure over the last month

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_product&product=TDept

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...i think a lot of beach goers will be disappointed today..all forecasters

are calling for mostly sunny skies..its cloudy now and looking at the satellite picture, clouds

are spilling SE from upstate NY..all 'future casts' have it clearing by mid afternoon..but by then its too

late.

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Early morning clouds are associated with warm front temporarily stalled over New England. The latest HRRR has skies clearing out later this morning. And temperatures around 90 for away from the coast, this afternoon. If fact, I'm already see some sunshine here:

 

2h6um3m.jpg

 

ac4hhi.jpg

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I don't understand the weather pattern that's been keeping warmth away from us. Warm air is typically the dominant force by Memorial Day yet it's still the inferior pattern right now.

caused by the blocking trough off the northeast coast and the circulation around it here has been mainly from the cooler east and north preventing the heat ridge out west from expanding east into the area which it likes to do this time of year. Tomorrow should be the most interesting day of the week - 1. Does someone reach 90 ? 2. Will there be another round of severe weather ? . Here is what Upton is saying:

 

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/  

 

BACKDOOR CDFNT APPROACHES...BUT DOES NOT REACH THE CWA DURING THE  

DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND MAY ALLOW  

TEMPS TO SHOOT UP HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND THE CURRENT FCST.  

LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND TSTM  

POTENTIAL.  

 

REMNANTS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A SUFFICIENT MID  

LVL WAVE FOR TSTM INITIATION. SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE  

LATEST NAM...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR A BIT WEAK YIELDING LESS  

ORGANIZATION. THIS SHEAR COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER HOWEVER DEPENDING  

ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTIVE LY INDUCED WAVE.  

 

INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR TSTMS IN THE FCST.  

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My guess is that Newark will reach 87-88 today, but we'll see if they can 

have the first year since 08-09 with no 90's this week.

 

 

High during last 7 days of May at Newark:

 

5-31-13....94

5-29-12....92

5-30-11....92

5-26-10....95

5-25-09....84

5-27-08....87

5-31-07....94

5-29-06....94

5-27-05....84

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90 here we come! As we all expected

 

Gonna be close.  Either way very nice 3 days Sun - Tue.  We need the Sun mosquitos worst ive seen in a bunch of years here in CNJ..

 

Looks like ridge builds back by the 1st with some heat on/around the 1st of June-ish possible.  Its likely transient as we continue to have a weakness over the northeast.

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