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uncle W

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Welcome to the perma-negepo regime which has been pretty much been running uninterrupted

over the last year with no end in sight. Upper lows have either been getting stuck over the Lakes

or from time to time right over us with cold pool instability that we have been seeing recently.

It has been great pattern for steep mid-level lapse rates and convection here year to date.

 

500 mb pattern since June 2013

 

 

Same story this month

 

 

More of same in forecast

 

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Most of the rain today is definitely going to be from the city west. Western Nassau will be lucky to get a shower..everything seems to be moving just east of due south today...

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Shot from a hilltop in central Dutchess of that little cell that pushed through eastern Putnam and northern Westchester within the past couple hours...

166Tam6.jpg

Believe it or not I could see that cell all the way from 287 in Oakland. Saw one really nice lightning display and the storm structure looked impressive.
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Unlikely we get a 90 before July or unlikely we don't get one?

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Unlikely we (NYC) don't hit 90 between now and July. And it wouldn't shock me if Newark hit 90 on Monday. Most likely between 86-89 though.
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Unlikely we (NYC) don't hit 90 between now and July. And it wouldn't shock me if Newark hit 90 on Monday. Most likely between 86-89 though.

Do you think we can return to 80 by Friday? I really hope we do. I'm dying to wear shorts to school and the showers on Tuesday might ruin my wardrobe for that day.

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Do you think we can return to 80 by Friday? I really hope we do. I'm dying to wear shorts to school and the showers on Tuesday might ruin my wardrobe for that day.

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The backdoor front Tuesday evening, means long pants for days & days.  I think this will be another long pants summer like 2009.

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Unlikely we (NYC) don't hit 90 between now and July. And it wouldn't shock me if Newark hit 90 on Monday. Most likely between 86-89 though.

looks unlikely Newark will hit 90 Monday because the new GFS and some other models aren't even close now - also In my opinion NYC and every other reporting station in the metro will hit 90 by the end of June and probably most will do it a least a couple times as climatology favors it (and what I mention below) as we move closer to July 1st

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

also as you can see in this GFS loop there are indications that the blocking to our northeast will begin to breakdown during the second week of June - also as I have been saying for many days now - we will experience more strong to severe storms here the next couple of weeks - one thing is for sure most of the metro does not have to worry about their grass drying out early this year and any water shortage

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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