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uncle W

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Winds are taking a drier (sunnier) component just to our west. We are currently on the wrong side of the occluded front and low pressure system, but once it moves a bit east and northeast, our surface winds should shift to the north and northwest, instead of being east of north. 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

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There's also some mid-level drying in the soundings, as well as the potential to reach our convective temperatures. Today's threat could sneak up on some people. 

 

The latest HRRR and RAP are very ominous tonight, at least for my standards, I'm supposed to be at the Mets game, no real TSTMS but it shows a pretty nasty pocket of rain centered from ERN NJ into SW CT...it may be overdone because even with the upper vort I think most activity is going to be diurnal.

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The widely scattered to isolated activity that has popped up so far has been moving very slowly. SPC mesoanalysis reveals a weakly unstable atmosphere. Mostly in the 200 J/KG to 500 J/KG range with mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 C.

 

One of the biggest factors yesterday was the strong shear profiles which are nearly absent today and only in the 20-30kt range at best.

 

Expect slow moving pop up thundershowers capable of dropping heavy rain and some small hail. Overall a much quieter day then yesterday's anomaly. Perceptible water values are less than one inch in most spots so not expecting any flash flooding threats even given the slow storm movement.

 

Looking ahead to Saturday, both the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF focus the heaviest activity over NJ and possible into SE NY. The models have been very poor lately at depicting the heaviest rains so we'll need to keep an eye on the HRRR which has done an excellent job recently.

 

Either way Sunday and especially Monday look like gems before things turn unsettled again for the middle of the week.

 

We might even have something to watch emerging out of the tropics towards the end of next week. The GFS has been consistently developing this feature and now the latest 12z GGEM also has something brewing. Just something to keep an eye on as we move into June.

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Everything appears to be developing along the inverted trof with the exception of that one area by EWR down through near BLM that developed on some other sort of boundary it seems..the inverted trof is fairly evident on radar from Nassau County extending NNW up through the Hudson Valley.

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Everything appears to be developing along the inverted trof with the exception of that one area by EWR down through near BLM that developed on some other sort of boundary it seems..the inverted trof is fairly evident on radar from Nassau County extending NNW up through the Hudson Valley.

Hudson valley looks to be crushed with some good rains...here in SW CT it's broken into partly cloudy and nice conditions, 63

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Looks like there will be flooding along the turnpike from Newark down to Middlesex and SI...strong cells are mostly stationary

Yup. I'm on the turnpike headed south by the Meadowlands and the traffic is at a standstill. I'm just getting light rain where I am, but visibility is very low just to the south.
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That insane area of rain actually seems like it cleared out LI, likely alot of subsidence either side of it ate away the low clouds, its now sunny in Nassau County...still not sure what that area formed on, the inverted trof appears to be well east, it almost appears there may have been a sea breeze boundary that moved ashore, notice as the showers inch east towards the coast near SI they are weakening in the marine layer.

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Absolutely nothing in west islip today but low clouds and mist. These two days have been terrible weather for the end of may. Tommorow looks like some of the same with scattered storm chances away from the coast like the past couple days

Had a couple downpours here in the last 90 mins but the sun is out now.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

* AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
EAST OF YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAHOPAC...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CARMEL AND BREWSTER

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4145 7365 4132 7345 4117 7369 4126 7383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 219DEG 10KT 4130 7367

$

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