Dsnowx53 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Winds are taking a drier (sunnier) component just to our west. We are currently on the wrong side of the occluded front and low pressure system, but once it moves a bit east and northeast, our surface winds should shift to the north and northwest, instead of being east of north. http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 There's also some mid-level drying in the soundings, as well as the potential to reach our convective temperatures. Today's threat could sneak up on some people. The latest HRRR and RAP are very ominous tonight, at least for my standards, I'm supposed to be at the Mets game, no real TSTMS but it shows a pretty nasty pocket of rain centered from ERN NJ into SW CT...it may be overdone because even with the upper vort I think most activity is going to be diurnal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Radar showing heavy showers popping over NYC metro area. They are slow-moving due to low shear. Could be some localized flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 The widely scattered to isolated activity that has popped up so far has been moving very slowly. SPC mesoanalysis reveals a weakly unstable atmosphere. Mostly in the 200 J/KG to 500 J/KG range with mid-level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 C. One of the biggest factors yesterday was the strong shear profiles which are nearly absent today and only in the 20-30kt range at best. Expect slow moving pop up thundershowers capable of dropping heavy rain and some small hail. Overall a much quieter day then yesterday's anomaly. Perceptible water values are less than one inch in most spots so not expecting any flash flooding threats even given the slow storm movement. Looking ahead to Saturday, both the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF focus the heaviest activity over NJ and possible into SE NY. The models have been very poor lately at depicting the heaviest rains so we'll need to keep an eye on the HRRR which has done an excellent job recently. Either way Sunday and especially Monday look like gems before things turn unsettled again for the middle of the week. We might even have something to watch emerging out of the tropics towards the end of next week. The GFS has been consistently developing this feature and now the latest 12z GGEM also has something brewing. Just something to keep an eye on as we move into June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Sun poking through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Everything appears to be developing along the inverted trof with the exception of that one area by EWR down through near BLM that developed on some other sort of boundary it seems..the inverted trof is fairly evident on radar from Nassau County extending NNW up through the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Everything appears to be developing along the inverted trof with the exception of that one area by EWR down through near BLM that developed on some other sort of boundary it seems..the inverted trof is fairly evident on radar from Nassau County extending NNW up through the Hudson Valley. Hudson valley looks to be crushed with some good rains...here in SW CT it's broken into partly cloudy and nice conditions, 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Picked up a shower here with 0.25 in. also with a west wind today did make it to 70 before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Looks like there will be flooding along the turnpike from Newark down to Middlesex and SI...strong cells are mostly stationary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Eastern middlesex is getting it pretty good now. Storm shield holding strong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Looks like there will be flooding along the turnpike from Newark down to Middlesex and SI...strong cells are mostly stationaryYup. I'm on the turnpike headed south by the Meadowlands and the traffic is at a standstill. I'm just getting light rain where I am, but visibility is very low just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I've escaped with just a few renegade drops thus far, but the skies to me N and W have been dark for hours. Looks like areas just a few miles away are enduring an outright deluge. 66/57, mostly cloudy with occasional thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 going to be some impressive totals with that stationary line of storms from NE NY northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Picked up another 0.36" of rain overnight...Raining pretty good right now in Coltsneck.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Absolutely nothing in west islip today but low clouds and mist. These two days have been terrible weather for the end of may. Tommorow looks like some of the same with scattered storm chances away from the coast like the past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 That insane area of rain actually seems like it cleared out LI, likely alot of subsidence either side of it ate away the low clouds, its now sunny in Nassau County...still not sure what that area formed on, the inverted trof appears to be well east, it almost appears there may have been a sea breeze boundary that moved ashore, notice as the showers inch east towards the coast near SI they are weakening in the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Absolutely nothing in west islip today but low clouds and mist. These two days have been terrible weather for the end of may. Tommorow looks like some of the same with scattered storm chances away from the coast like the past couple days Had a couple downpours here in the last 90 mins but the sun is out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Had a couple downpours here in the last 90 mins but the sun is out now. Yeah that one shower found us earlier was pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY357 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...* UNTIL 445 PM EDT...* AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...ANDDAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILESEAST OF YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAHOPAC...ANDMOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TOCARMEL AND BREWSTERIN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TOGROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORSIMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BESTRUCK BY LIGHTNING.LAT...LON 4145 7365 4132 7345 4117 7369 4126 7383TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 219DEG 10KT 4130 7367$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Raining hard here in Queens 8" per hour rate right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Raining hard here in Queens Small cell has popped up over Maspeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Small cell has popped up over Maspeth. Up to .65" in like 10 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Nothing but light rain here. No sun at all and no blue angle practice which was a bummer as they fly right over my house. Hopefully a go for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Nothing but light rain here. No sun at all and no blue angle practice which was a bummer as they fly right over my house. Hopefully a go for tomorrow They flew over Merrick today, couldn't see them but heard them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Sunday and Monday are going to be beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 What do you guys think of the activity over NJ/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 They flew over Merrick today, couldn't see them but heard them I'm 99 percent sure they didn't fly today. There c130 did fly and did multiple laps but no jets. Yesterday they buzzed my house at like 200 feet if you didn't know what was going on it would scare the crap out of you! Sooooooo loud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 According to radar there should be big storms right over my head but the sun is shining brightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Moderate rain and thunder here. Looks like the storm is blowing up on radar; thunder has gotten more frequent in the past minute or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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