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May 2014


uncle W

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despite what forky just posted regarding instability im not holding out much hope for good tstorms tonight into tomorrow from NYC-east. might just be a repeat for areas as it was today

The watch was canceled. Doubt we see much. Even where I am I didn't even get a shower from that weakening cell. In fact the sun came out

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The 12Z runs seem to all have pushed the inverted trof feature more NE tomorrow which probably means less SHRA/TSTM activity than earlier thought, I don't think anyone south of CT, far NRN NJ, Hudson Valley sees a whole lot tomorrow and most of it will be 18-22Z. The clouds should be much better with N-NE winds than the S-SE winds of today too. LGA will probably be colder than JFK tomorrow.

Thank you

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Pretty decent storm going into Warren county

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ950 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014NJC041-230200-/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-140523T0200Z/WARREN NJ-950 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDTFOR EASTERN WARREN COUNTY...AT 948 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TOINDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGINGWINDS NEAR 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM GREAT MEADOWS-VIENNA TO HOPE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30MPH.  THE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...GREAT MEADOWS-VIENNA AROUND 955 PM EDT...HACKETTSTOWN AND BEATTYESTOWN AROUND 1000 PM EDT...
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We have some steep lapse rates this afternoon. But CAPE and shear don't look high. Mostly pulse t-storms with heavy rainfall and small hail potential.

Today looks to have action in the same areas but once again dont think the storms will make it to the coastal locals. Yesterday all i had was a sprinkle and today i expect about the same, even though they're should be more sun unlike yesterdays marine layer

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I suspect that we are going to have a very active severe season in the metro  beginning this week through at least part of June as the "ring of fire" visits our area as the battle between the summer heat ridge and the blocking trough pattern really gets going

Another day of potential strong/severe for portions of the metro 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook

 

Todays GFS continues to show the blocking trough along the east coast  and the heat ridge attempts to move towards  us

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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Another day of potential strong/severe for portions of the metro

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook

Todays GFS continues to show the blocking trough along the east coast and the heat ridge attempts to move towards us

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

HRRR keeping the areas N&W of us today in the best storms chances with maybe some rogue convection or what is left of it making down to the coast much like yesterday. SVR parameter dont look as impressive as yesterday though

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Today looks to have action in the same areas but once again dont think the storms will make it to the coastal locals. Yesterday all i had was a sprinkle and today i expect about the same, even though they're should be more sun unlike yesterdays marine layer

It's looking like we'll be socked in again with low clouds. The flow is mostly NE and maritime. Until that changes I don't see much of a chance for anything. 

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It's looking like we'll be socked in again with low clouds. The flow is mostly NE and maritime. Until that changes I don't see much of a chance for anything. 

 

Sun is peeking occasionally here in Bayside (NE) Queens.

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We have some steep lapse rates this afternoon. But CAPE and shear don't look high. Mostly pulse t-storms with heavy rainfall and small hail potential.

 

 

There's also some mid-level drying in the soundings, as well as the potential to reach our convective temperatures. Today's threat could sneak up on some people. 

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There's also some mid-level drying in the soundings, as well as the potential to reach our convective temperatures. Today's threat could sneak up on some people.

Judging by the cloud cover on LI, threats should be relegated away from NYC proper N&W. currently im not to enthusiastic about anything resembling a thunderstorm east of NYC let alone a strong/severe storm dsnow

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Judging by the cloud cover on LI, threats should be relegated away from NYC proper N&W. currently im not to enthusiastic about anything resembling a thunderstorm east of NYC let alone a strong/severe storm dsnow

 

 

Sun is already poking through the clouds here in Queens and the HRRR has all of NYC under sunshine by 1pm.

 

rad4.gif

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