May 2014

[Stormlover74]

Pretty good storms firing over nw nj..looks to be morphing into a line

[Weathergun]

Heard some rumbles of thunder here:

 

 

 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

Just got woken up from a few rumbles, of course since im up havent heard anything.

[winterwarlock]

I can tell the average age of the forum is getting younger

[bluewave]

Although the greatest instability (severe potential)will be found just west of NYC, the steep mid level lapse

rates will allow the storms to make right down to the coast today. I can't remember a

January -May with such steep mid level lapse rates in this area. The HRRR has a severe

looking cell later on near Monmouth and scattered less intense storms NE across NYC

and LONG Island into CT.

 

 

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

Great setup but once again my area in SW suffolk will most likely be relegated to maybe some showers and storms passing to my N&W chris. Best chance in my area is those setups with a congealed line but even those dont make it past NYC before just turning into rain with occasional thunder/lightning

[bluewave]

Great setup but once again my area in SW suffolk will most likely be relegated to maybe some showers and storms passing to my N&W chris. Best chance in my area is those setups with a congealed line but even those dont make it past NYC before just turning into rain with occasional thunder/lightning

 

The thunderstorms clipped my area last night here in Western Nassau due to the steep mid level lapse rates.

I have had more thunder here from January through May than in many recent years.

 

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

The thunderstorms clipped my area last night here in Western Nassau due to the steep mid level lapse rates.

I have had more thunder here from January through May than in many recent years.

Screen shot 2014-05-22 at 7.47.12 AM.png

I agree with this. It seems that the achilles heel if you will with these storms as they approach the immediate NYC area and on east is the meager lapse rates. However, during the winter and spring we can have sufficient lapse rates but during the summer its the lack of it that kills it and also any seabreeze influence, although last year seabreeze front fired storms were relegated to north of LIE and they were pretty potent. If you could draw a zone where actual strong/severe storms because of its less than ideal environment for them would be from Long Beach to across FI and south shore facing towns ( i.e. lindenhurst, babylon, west lslip etc. ). Further inland the storms on LI can have more to work with

[Weathergun]

Some potential for elevated supercells with weak rotation over parts of NJ this afternoon. Especially near warm front/instability axis:

 

 

[NEG NAO]

I suspect that we are going to have a very active severe season in the metro  beginning this week through at least part of June as the "ring of fire" visits our area as the battle between the summer heat ridge and the blocking trough pattern really gets going

good chance it starts today around the metro - and really gets going the the next few weeks as the heat ridge out west takes on the stubborn blocked trough in the northeast

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

 

This mornings GFS is showing this

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[bluewave]

I agree with this. It seems that the achilles heel if you will with these storms as they approach the immediate NYC area and on east is the meager lapse rates. However, during the winter and spring we can have sufficient lapse rates but during the summer its the lack of it that kills it and also any seabreeze influence, although last year seabreeze front fired storms were relegated to north of LIE and they were pretty potent. If you could draw a zone where actual strong/severe storms because of its less than ideal environment for them would be from Long Beach to across FI and south shore facing towns ( i.e. lindenhurst, babylon, west lslip etc. ). Further inland the storms on LI can have more to work with

 

 

While they haven't updated this since 2006, you can see how the seabreeze front along the Sunrise-Southern State

corridor and north has been the focus of numerous severe reports including several tornadoes. I have only experienced a handful of severe reports right along the immediate South Shore in Long Beach.

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

While they haven't updated this since 2006, you can see how the seabreeze front along the Sunrise-Southern State

corridor and north has been the focus of numerous severe reports including several tornadoes.

OKX6.gif

Think the issue where i am in SW suffolk is that it has it own little micro-environment if you will chris. Numerous times over the past several summers storms have weakened substantially just miles away from and/or broke up and re-strengthened again east of me. Ive had friends in lindenhurst saying a storm is producing hail and winds and by the time it gets to me ( under 10 mile difference ) it is less than a garden variety storm. Also numerous members on this board have brought to light the lack of widespread severe storms across the entire tri state including LI. If that chart were to include 2006-present think it will paint a similar picture im trying to potrait in that severe weather is ALOT less common now

[jm1220]

Think the issue where i am in SW suffolk is that it has it own little micro-environment if you will chris. Numerous times over the past several summers storms have weakened substantially just miles away from and/or broke up and re-strengthened again east of me. Ive had friends in lindenhurst saying a storm is producing hail and winds and by the time it gets to me ( under 10 mile difference ) it is less than a garden variety storm. Also numerous members on this board have brought to light the lack of widespread severe storms across the entire tri state including LI. If that chart were to include 2006-present think it will paint a similar picture im trying to potrait in that severe weather is ALOT less common now

True severe weather is almost unheard of here on the immediate shore. I can count on one hand the number of times I've ever seen 50+ mph wind in a thunderstorm, and barely remember any time Long Beach has had hail, much less severe criteria size. Summers really are snoozefests down here outside of the last few years with the massive rain events and Hurricanes Irene/Sandy. The strongest winds we see in thunderstorms are with the dying outflow boundary most of the time.

[Stormlover74]

True severe weather is almost unheard of here on the immediate shore. I can count on one hand the number of times I've ever seen 50+ mph wind in a thunderstorm, and barely remember any time Long Beach has had hail, much less severe criteria size. Summers really are snoozefests down here outside of the last few years with the massive rain events and Hurricanes Irene/Sandy. The strongest winds we see in thunderstorms are with the dying outflow boundary most of the time.

Yeah severe is an overused term because most of the time we see 40-50 mph wind gusts and small hail, which is not severe anyway but still a good storm that most of us would take in a heartbeat. The damaging 60 mph/large hail is pretty rare anywhere near nyc

[NEG NAO]

going to be breaks in the clouds this afternoon that is going to set the stage for strong/severe potential

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar-rs

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NY WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALOFT  
DRIVING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE  
APPEARS LOW. SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THOUGH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REACH  
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NY METRO AROUND 11 AM.  
 
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE LATE MORNING  
CONVECTION RESULTS IN INCREASE INSTABILITY. THUS STILL EXPECTING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE AROUND  
40KT ALL DAY WITH A VEERING PROFILE...CAPE WILL BE LOW IN THE  
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THEREFORE  
ANTICIPATED. CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF  
THE CWA AS CAPE INCREASES AND THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF A JET  
STREAK ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. WITH FORECAST CAPE OF 500-1000  
J/KG IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE  
CWA...LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL  
KEEP THE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

[jm1220]

The thunderstorms clipped my area last night here in Western Nassau due to the steep mid level lapse rates.

I have had more thunder here from January through May than in many recent years.

 

Screen shot 2014-05-22 at 7.47.12 AM.png

There was a clap of thunder this morning around 4:30 that was loud enough to start car alarms. It sounded like a bomb going off overhead.

[REDMK6GLI]

After that complex of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms to out NW clears our area we should clear out and instability should increase noticably for later afternoon/ evening storms. Though im still convinced it will N&S of long island with cellular storms over a bow-echo type event

[NEG NAO]

After that complex of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms to out NW clears our area we should clear out and instability should increase noticably for later afternoon/ evening storms. Though im still convinced it will N&S of long island with cellular storms over a bow-echo type event

any stronger storms that do develop to the west will weaken as they get in to a more stable environment near the coast - the further west of the hudson you travel in the metro the greater the potential for stronger storms

[REDMK6GLI]

any stronger storms that do develop to the west will weaken as they get in to a more stable environment near the coast - the further west of the hudson you travel in the metro the greater the potential for stronger storms

Hence why i said N&S. the air near the coastal areas will be the dagger for any "strong/ severe" storms that do venture to the areas east of NYC. I think NYC proper has a decent chance today but east of there my chances are below 10% for any strong storms this afternoon/ evening

[Weathergun]

Clouds are breaking up quickly behind the showers moving over NYC area now. Most of us should see some sun by 1pm:

 

 

[Brian5671]

First decent T-storm of the year here-heavy rains, lightning and thunder-no wind at all.

[NycStormChaser]

Clouds are breaking up quickly behind the showers moving over NYC area now. Most of us should see some sun by 1pm:

Yeah, Some drizzle now in Jersey City.

[REDMK6GLI]

Clouds are breaking up quickly behind the showers moving over NYC area now. Most of us should see some sun by 1pm:

Really interested to see the lapse rates for LI once the sun breaks out area wide and storms fire up. That is very important for storms around here and more often than not that always lacks, killed a few good storm chances the past few years.

[SnowGoose69]

The HRRR is suggesting LI and most of NYC never clears, as a matter of fact it says they never get much above 1000 ft on ceilings, but it's said that a few times this spring already and been overly pessimistic.

[ag3]

The HRRR is suggesting LI and most of NYC never clears, as a matter of fact it says they never get much above 1000 ft on ceilings, but it's said that a few times this spring already and been overly pessimistic.

 

HRRR tends to overdo the marine influence.

It's the 1 fault the model has.

[Stormlover74]

 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MODERATELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...1-MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CU AND SMALL CBS FORMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM AROUND 25 S ROC TO ZZV...WITH THE GREATEST CLUMPING NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER. 12Z WRF-NSSL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN SIMULATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EMANATING E/NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS QUITE PROBABLE GIVEN ROBUST HEATING EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND GENERALLY WLY. BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /N OF THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS/ WILL FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS AND WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[REDMK6GLI]

HRRR is dead wrong with the cloud cover. Im in selden and its already starting to clear up right after the rainfall

[Stormlover74]

HRRR is dead wrong with the cloud cover. Im in selden and its already starting to clear up right after the rainfall

Still very overcast here. No brightening at all.

[SnowGoose69]

HRRR is dead wrong with the cloud cover. Im in selden and its already starting to clear up right after the rainfall

Yeah it'll end up better than it shows but it probably will still be fairly cloudy most areas, tomorrow I think is more likely to clear significantly because winds will be N or NNE and not SE.

[REDMK6GLI]

Yeah it'll end up better than it shows but it probably will still be fairly cloudy most areas, tomorrow I think is more likely to clear significantly because winds will be N or NNE and not SE.

One thing i can almost say with certainty is the stronger storms will be confined to west of NYC and east will have some scattered heavier showers today IMO. Cape, shear and lapse rates look better in NJ/PA then coastal areas and with clearing taking place there storms should start firing in next few hours.