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May 2014


uncle W

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The Euro still has the torch for next week but it cuts off an ULL over the Ohio Valley underneath the ridge. Would be hazy, hot and humid with repeated thunderstorm chances.

We will have to see how the next couple of days play out. I know most are going to hug the Euro in this situation, but I'm not going to ignore what Earthlight/Bluewave said. 

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We will have to see how the next couple of days play out. I know most are going to hug the Euro in this situation, but I'm not going to ignore what Earthlight/Bluewave said. 

Chances are it will be on the warmer side, at least south and west of NYC. That's usually what ends up happening

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We will have to see how the next couple of days play out. I know most are going to hug the Euro in this situation, but I'm not going to ignore what Earthlight/Bluewave said. 

Rule of thumb...

 

In the winter hump the coldest, snowiest model and during the Spring/Summer hump the driest, hottest models.

 

One thing we can be sure about is that the models will be waffling back and forth the next couple of days.

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Rule of thumb...

 

In the winter hump the coldest, snowiest model and during the Spring/Summer hump the driest, hottest models.

 

One thing we can be sure about is that the models will be waffling back and forth the next couple of days.

of course!  that's what most weenies want and toss in a hurricane or two to top it off :whistle:

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It might be hard to even reach 80 if the GFS is more right. The trough NE of us always makes one pause before forecasting too much warmth NE of Balt/DC.

 

The GFS looks like it may be too pessimistic averaged out over the next week to 10 days. But it will be interesting

too see where the boundary on the Euro sets up days 6-10 as there will be a warm push toward the Midatlantic.

We'll if the 90 degree warmth gets stuck down around Philly or inches up toward Newark around May 30-31

to keep the streak of recent years late May warmth going.

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The GFS looks like it may be too pessimistic averaged out over the next week to 10 days. But it will be interesting

too see where the boundary on the Euro sets up days 6-10 as there will be a warm push toward the Midatlantic.

New England mets say that the 12z Euro took a big step towards the GFS regarding the BDCF chances next week.

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Perhaps but what happens in New England doesn't mean it will happen here. They certainly have a greater chance of seeing a BDCF slip through especially in eastern New England than we do.

The GFS brings the backdoor well southwest of our area so if the Euro is starting to cave towards it wouldn't that mean it could possible affect us?

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I think it's too early to tell where the models with the backdoor front, since they all different solutions yesterday. The 12z GFS MOS shows temps near 80 on Sunday and Monday:

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/21/2014  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28|THU CLIMO N/X  59  72| 57  71| 54  72| 59  80| 63  82| 63  77| 59  71| 57 57 74 TMP  61  64| 59  62| 57  66| 62  72| 66  73| 67  69| 62  65| 60       DPT  56  57| 53  52| 49  50| 51  52| 51  56| 55  58| 54  52| 48       CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV   
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The GFS at 12z essentially has the cold trough northeast of us until D-Day, probably with constant backdoor fronts. You really want this?

Do you like exaggerated and uncontrollable heat waves? Remember how the past 4 summers went? I don't want something like that again. I'm not fond of that type of weather. Every time I see that happening, it gives me bad memories of 1999 and 2013. The hottest and driest summer I have ever experienced (1999) and hottest/humid weather I have ever experienced (2013). Anyway, I guess it's time to have my AC fixed if June is on track for 90s. 

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New England mets say that the 12z Euro took a big step towards the GFS regarding the BDCF chances next week.

 

Both models agree on the front coming through around day 7. The question of where the front lines up

around day 9-10 is still a bit far out to know yet. It looks like the warmth will make a push toward the 

MA around that time. But if the boundary stalls nearby, Newark may not reach 90 at the end of the

month like it did in recent years.

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Speaking of heat, check out Moscow.   Was reading Pravda in Russian (for practice) that scores of older people have collapsed in recent days.   They did not give any temps.    Their 850mb temps are near 15C and will stay that way till after Mon., w/o precip. according to GFS.   Hey. that is as high as we have been so far I think.   

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The models tonight have shifted the instability axis a little further east. Strong t-storms will likely become elevated as the near coast. SPC expands slight risk to include NE NJ and NYC:

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

 ...MID ATLANTIC AREA...   MODEST INSTABILITY WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP IN   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A PORTION   OF THE NERN STATES BY LATE MORNING. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL   REMAIN WEAK...BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH 50 KT AT 500 MB   ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN   40-45 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY 0-6 KM SHEAR. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD   REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS.   HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING SHOULD PROMOTE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY   LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. SUFFICIENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL   BE PRESENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
 
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