IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The Euro still has the torch for next week but it cuts off an ULL over the Ohio Valley underneath the ridge. Would be hazy, hot and humid with repeated thunderstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The Euro still has the torch for next week but it cuts off an ULL over the Ohio Valley underneath the ridge. Would be hazy, hot and humid with repeated thunderstorm chances. We will have to see how the next couple of days play out. I know most are going to hug the Euro in this situation, but I'm not going to ignore what Earthlight/Bluewave said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 For next Friday the Euro has dews in the upper 60's to near 70. We go from Spring right into the fryer with oppressive humidity. Or do we go with the 12z GFS with a full fledged cut off low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 We will have to see how the next couple of days play out. I know most are going to hug the Euro in this situation, but I'm not going to ignore what Earthlight/Bluewave said. Chances are it will be on the warmer side, at least south and west of NYC. That's usually what ends up happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 We will have to see how the next couple of days play out. I know most are going to hug the Euro in this situation, but I'm not going to ignore what Earthlight/Bluewave said. Rule of thumb... In the winter hump the coldest, snowiest model and during the Spring/Summer hump the driest, hottest models. One thing we can be sure about is that the models will be waffling back and forth the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Rule of thumb... In the winter hump the coldest, snowiest model and during the Spring/Summer hump the driest, hottest models. One thing we can be sure about is that the models will be waffling back and forth the next couple of days. of course! that's what most weenies want and toss in a hurricane or two to top it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 if there isn't much confluence on the west side of the nova scotia ULL then we should avoid any backdoor issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 It might be hard to even reach 80 if the GFS is more right. The trough NE of us always makes one pause before forecasting too much warmth NE of Balt/DC. The GFS looks like it may be too pessimistic averaged out over the next week to 10 days. But it will be interesting too see where the boundary on the Euro sets up days 6-10 as there will be a warm push toward the Midatlantic. We'll if the 90 degree warmth gets stuck down around Philly or inches up toward Newark around May 30-31 to keep the streak of recent years late May warmth going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The GFS looks like it may be too pessimistic averaged out over the next week to 10 days. But it will be interesting too see where the boundary on the Euro sets up days 6-10 as there will be a warm push toward the Midatlantic. New England mets say that the 12z Euro took a big step towards the GFS regarding the BDCF chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 New England mets say that the 12z Euro took a big step towards the GFS regarding the BDCF chances next week. Thankfully, we don't live in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Thankfully, we don't live in NE. Missing the point of the post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 New England mets say that the 12z Euro took a big step towards the GFS regarding the BDCF chances next week. and those BDCF's often end up further S and W than modeled, so something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Missing the point of the post? Perhaps but what happens in New England doesn't mean it will happen here. They certainly have a greater chance of seeing a BDCF slip through especially in eastern New England than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Perhaps but what happens in New England doesn't mean it will happen here. They certainly have a greater chance of seeing a BDCF slip through especially in eastern New England than we do. The GFS brings the backdoor well southwest of our area so if the Euro is starting to cave towards it wouldn't that mean it could possible affect us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I think it's too early to tell where the models with the backdoor front, since they all different solutions yesterday. The 12z GFS MOS shows temps near 80 on Sunday and Monday: KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/21/2014 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28|THU CLIMO N/X 59 72| 57 71| 54 72| 59 80| 63 82| 63 77| 59 71| 57 57 74 TMP 61 64| 59 62| 57 66| 62 72| 66 73| 67 69| 62 65| 60 DPT 56 57| 53 52| 49 50| 51 52| 51 56| 55 58| 54 52| 48 CLD OV OV| OV OV| OV PC| PC CL| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Its not april anymore...re:hyping back door cold fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 HPC's thoughts through Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Its not april anymore...re:hyping back door cold fronts It's not about hyping backdoor cold fronts, it's about analyzing what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The GFS at 12z essentially has the cold trough northeast of us until D-Day, probably with constant backdoor fronts. You really want this? Do you like exaggerated and uncontrollable heat waves? Remember how the past 4 summers went? I don't want something like that again. I'm not fond of that type of weather. Every time I see that happening, it gives me bad memories of 1999 and 2013. The hottest and driest summer I have ever experienced (1999) and hottest/humid weather I have ever experienced (2013). Anyway, I guess it's time to have my AC fixed if June is on track for 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Let's wait for the 18Z model to pop up. They've been flip-flopping between two completely different weather patterns. The back door could be a bust and we get the torch instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 New England mets say that the 12z Euro took a big step towards the GFS regarding the BDCF chances next week. Both models agree on the front coming through around day 7. The question of where the front lines up around day 9-10 is still a bit far out to know yet. It looks like the warmth will make a push toward the MA around that time. But if the boundary stalls nearby, Newark may not reach 90 at the end of the month like it did in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Warlock has been wearing cutoffs for awhile now...the next step is shirtlesd While lonely housewives eye you up! Everything looks on track...I'm not trusting a -20 for Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Speaking of heat, check out Moscow. Was reading Pravda in Russian (for practice) that scores of older people have collapsed in recent days. They did not give any temps. Their 850mb temps are near 15C and will stay that way till after Mon., w/o precip. according to GFS. Hey. that is as high as we have been so far I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 NYC right outside slight severe for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 NYC right outside slight severe for Thursday. Severe chances should remain limited near the coast with weak instability due to the stable maritime flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Severe chances should remain limited near the coast with weak instability due to the stable maritime flow. Congrats on the tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Congrats on the tag Thanks! It was a hell of a lot of work lol but finally paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Thanks! It was a hell of a lot of work lol but finally paid off.Wow, congrats man! I see you literally just turned 22, that's really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Severe chances should remain limited near the coast with weak instability due to the stable maritime flow. Nothing new here. Congrats btw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 The models tonight have shifted the instability axis a little further east. Strong t-storms will likely become elevated as the near coast. SPC expands slight risk to include NE NJ and NYC: ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... MODEST INSTABILITY WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES BY LATE MORNING. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH 50 KT AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 40-45 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY 0-6 KM SHEAR. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING SHOULD PROMOTE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES. SUFFICIENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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