IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Monday to Sunday of next week looks above normal with temps of 80-90 degrees areawide. Not sure what people are talking about. All ensemble and op data supports it. And the signal remains as we approach. The GFS keeps the ridging at bay to our west. New rule of thumb, hump the Euro when it shows what we want and toss it when it doesn't. Oh wait, some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The 12z NAM has 1.75-2.25" of rain here through Saturday night, toss right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The GFS keeps the ridging at bay to our west. New rule of thumb, hump the Euro when it shows what we want and toss it when it doesn't. Oh wait, some things never change. The GFS also has us in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The 12z NAM has 1.75-2.25" of rain here through Saturday night, toss right? Most of that is 48-72 hours out and its the nam so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The GFS also has us in the 80s I see low 80's away from the coast, mostly SW of NYC on Tuesday, and that's it through hr 192 on the 06z GFS. Do you have a graphic that show's something different. My source is WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Most of that is 48-72 hours out and its the nam so yeah The 00z GGEM and 06z GFS are very similar. The GGEM especially. Only the 00z ECMWF is really dry. Only ~0.75"+ for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The 00z GGEM and 06z GFS are very similar. The GGEM especially. Only the 00z ECMWF is really dry. Only ~0.75"+ for the city. 06z GFS has about .75" as well and none of it heavy, just spread out over 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 06z GFS has about .75" as well and none of it heavy, just spread out over 3 days It has most of NJ >1.00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I return to the board to see absolutely nothing has changed, as despite changing his username YanksFan declared that there is no way to get heat with a NW Wind and then proceeded to back off and say that "At least its not a SE Wind". Welcome to spring folks. Can you teach me how to read the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I see low 80's away from the coast, mostly SW of NYC on Tuesday, and that's it through hr 192 on the 06z GFS. Do you have a graphic that show's something different. My source is WxBell. The backdoor cold front is pretty weak on the models and they've been inconsistent on it. The 6z GFS has highs in upper 70s or lower 80s for NYC SW for most of next week. The Euro keeps it away has more middle to upper 80s, next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Monday to Sunday of next week looks above normal with temps of 80-90 degrees areawide. Not sure what people are talking about. All ensemble and op data supports it. And the signal remains as we approach. It's coming my good buddy! Warlock is getting that cutoff ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Can you teach me how to read the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The backdoor cold front is pretty weak on the models and they've been inconsistent on it. The 6z GFS has highs in upper 70s or lower 80s for NYC SW for most of next week. The Euro keeps it away has more middle to upper 80s, next week. I took the time to go panel by panel and the only hour showing 80's close to NYC is hour 156 or 18z Tuesday. The 12z GFS might very well cave, but with the blocking signal in the models has been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The backdoor cold front is pretty weak on the models and they've been inconsistent on it. The 6z GFS has highs in upper 70s or lower 80s for NYC SW for most of next week. The Euro keeps it away has more middle to upper 80s, next week. It'll be a close call-if the upper low NE of us is stronger, it could keep the heat at bay to the west. And we also have to watch for spokes on the upper low which would bring rain or clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 It'll be a close call-if the upper low NE of us is stronger, it could keep the heat at bay to the west. And we also have to watch for spokes on the upper low which would bring rain or clouds. NYC looks to stay right on the boundary between a torch focused more towards the DC area and cooler marine influence over New England. Thanks to the ULL east of of us. I would expect continued waffling since the exact placement of the features will have a large affect on sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I'll be in Nashville next weekend so I'll try to bring some of the heat back with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I took the time to go panel by panel and the only hour showing 80's close to NYC is hour 156 or 18z Tuesday. The 12z GFS might very well cave, but with the blocking signal in the models has been very consistent. 6z GFS is the upper 70s and low 80s for NYC starting Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Major flooding in parts of PA thanks to the early morning decaying MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 12 gfs through Saturday afternoon: MMU-.73, ewr .51. nyc .44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darienzo Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 6z GFS is the upper 70s and low 80s for NYC starting Sunday: Just out of curiosity, where did you get this product from? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Warlock has been wearing cutoffs for awhile now...the next step is shirtlesd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Torch cancel on the 12z GFS, BDCF comes through Tuesday night. Low 80's still possible SW of NYC on Tuesday. The area verbatim would be in the low 50's for a high on Wednesday which is nearly a -20 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The 12z GGEM is 2-3" for northern sections and 1-2" for southern sections of this forum through Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Time will tell if we get the GFS nightmare or the Euro mini-torch. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Time will tell if we get the GFS nightmare or the Euro mini-torch. Sent from my iPhone GFS nightmare? I prefer cooler weather than intense sweltering weather any day. I hate to pay high electrical bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 GFS nightmare? I prefer cooler weather than intense sweltering weather any day. I hate to pay high electrical bills. The GFS at 12z essentially has the cold trough northeast of us until D-Day, probably with constant backdoor fronts. You really want this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I typically would agree without thinking twice, but the pattern for keeping lower than normal heights in Eastern Canada and New England has not changed since late March. This is a death wish for extending the periphery of the heat ridges to our area, which typically build over the Central US this time of year and then eventually try to extend northeastward. When the lower than normal heights over Eastern Canada, New England and the Northwest Atlantic are persistent like this, it often takes until late Spring or early Summer until we can start extending ridges into this area. The Euro seems to be on an island of its own right now so we will have to see if it ends up being correct. But you can see even on the GFS, that the below normal heights to our north and east keep the ridge at bay and likely would introduce yet another back door front to the northeast of our area. Yeah, I think the OP Euro is overdone here with the warming on the 0z run. The strength of the block to our northeast in recent days argues for more backdoor potential as an upper low looks to get stuck underneath. Newark could end up in the minority of recent Late Mays and fail to reach 90 degrees. High during last 7 days of May at Newark: 5-31-13....94 5-29-12....92 5-30-11....92 5-26-10....95 5-25-09....84 5-27-08....87 5-31-07....94 5-29-06....94 5-27-05....84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 We still managed to average above normal despite the blocky pattern so far this month, but perhaps a lot of people including myself got ahead of ourselves. There are plenty of instances where strong heat builds in the middle of the country only to get crushed before it gets here or comes here with far less intensity. I'd like to see what the Euro shows in this instance however. Of course we don't need intense heat for things to become unbearable here because we almost always trade off the record heat for high dews and humidity and 85-90F with 70F+ dews becomes just as unbearable as 95-100+ with far lower dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Yeah, I think the OP Euro is overdone here with the warming on the 0z run. The strength of the block to our northeast in recent days argues for more backdoor potential as an upper low looks to get stuck underneath. Newark could end up in the minority of recent Late Mays and fail to reach 90 degrees. High during last 7 days of May at Newark: 5-31-13....94 5-29-12....92 5-30-11....92 5-26-10....95 5-25-09....84 5-27-08....87 5-31-07....94 5-29-06....94 5-27-05....84 f0.gif It might be hard to even reach 80 if the GFS is more right. The trough NE of us always makes one pause before forecasting too much warmth NE of Balt/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 GFS nightmare? I prefer cooler weather than intense sweltering weather any day. I hate to pay high electrical bills. Well, it's a nightmare to me. I am sick of sub-70 days at this point. If we get a mini-April next week I'm going to scream. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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