Sundog Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 A few factors to this: 1. Many of us desiring for a really hot summer after the Polar Vortex happened. 2. Coming off of our coolest April since 2007. It made us think we were going to have our coolest spring in a while. Our cold March didn't help, either. 3. The rain=cold misconception. June looks quite promising. We always have a cool down or two early in the month. 2012 gave us the chilly 1st week, 2013 we had Andrea and some other rainstorms. 2014 should stay warm and dry. Most places were less than one degree away from dead normal for April. If that is the coolest April in 7 years then that's pathetic, especially since it's based on the 1980-2010 climate block, the warmest one on record. People are insane when they act like they haven't seen heat in ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Our warmest day is always mid/late July. If we get 100s, then that is our best chance for it. Anyway, Memorial Day and the days immediately after it has served our first heat wave of the year for the past 3 years. It's looking like this year will be no different, and our first 90 degree day could happen sometime next week. Warm weather should be here to stay once Memorial Day arrives. Yup just like almost every single recent summer with 2009 being the lone exception. I guess heat can be subjective but most would agree above 85 is considered hot, above 95 is generally considered unbearable especially if dews are 65+. Our average is like 85 so we average "hot" if you think about it so 95% of summers will be hot. Nice heat signal remains on the gfs and it's the kind that could feature evening t-storms. One of the things I love about severe weather is the morning before when you can almost smell the heat and instability in the air and you know that sometime between 3-6pm that you'll get a few strong to severe storms and things turn dark very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Made it to 80 here after a morning low of 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 77/46 split and gorgeous today. Wish we had more weather like this throughout the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 21, 2014 Author Share Posted May 21, 2014 so far KNYC is averaging near 63.0 for May 2014....1981-2010 average is 62.8...1982 averaged 64.1...this year could end up near that number...1965 was 66.4...2014 is running colder than 1982 up to this point in time...June 1982 was quite cool averaging 68.6...1965 averaged 70.1 for June...1981-2010 June average is about 71.7...June could turn out cooler than average this year if it's anything like 1982 or 1965... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Most places were less than one degree away from dead normal for April. If that is the coolest April in 7 years then that's pathetic, especially since it's based on the 1980-2010 climate block, the warmest one on record. People are insane when they act like they haven't seen heat in ages. It's not pathetic. It's the truth. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5B%5D=1¶meter=tmp&state=28&div=1&year=2014&month=4#ranks-form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 no heat waves in the metro in sight with this pattern but we will have increased chances of an MCS crossing the area as we will be on the edge of any approaching heat from the southwest from time to time http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 no heat waves in the metro in sight with this pattern but we will have increased chances of an MCS crossing the area as we will be on the edge of any approaching heat from the southwest from time to time http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l Careful, you might end up grouped with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Careful, you might end up grouped with me. hope not I am not a Yankees fan - anyways that warm front starts moving this way we might see an mcs sooner then later - also I think this is going to be the same pattern we see for most of June - but I do expect we will see at least a few 90 degree days in June mixed in - thats just going to add fuel to the "ring of fire" as the trough reloads http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar-rs?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Warm spots like Newark should at least see a day or two of mid-80's next week according to the Euro ensemble mean pattern. The operational 850's suggest closer to 90 but it's still outside the best range for the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Warm spots like Newark should at least see a day or two of mid-80's next week according to the Euro ensemble mean pattern. The operational 850's suggest closer to 90 but it's still outside the best range for the OP. 192.gif Yep! It's coming! We stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The 06z 4k NAM really nails areas southwest of NYC proper today with heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 71 here already under clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The 06z 4k NAM really nails areas southwest of NYC proper today with heavy convection. The severe dry spell continues for my area unabated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Do you actually know how to read a model? What part of a NW flow produces heat? I return to the board to see absolutely nothing has changed, as despite changing his username YanksFan declared that there is no way to get heat with a NW Wind and then proceeded to back off and say that "At least its not a SE Wind". Welcome to spring folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Warm spots like Newark should at least see a day or two of mid-80's next week according to the Euro ensemble mean pattern. The operational 850's suggest closer to 90 but it's still outside the best range for the OP. I typically would agree without thinking twice, but the pattern for keeping lower than normal heights in Eastern Canada and New England has not changed since late March. This is a death wish for extending the periphery of the heat ridges to our area, which typically build over the Central US this time of year and then eventually try to extend northeastward. When the lower than normal heights over Eastern Canada, New England and the Northwest Atlantic are persistent like this, it often takes until late Spring or early Summer until we can start extending ridges into this area. The Euro seems to be on an island of its own right now so we will have to see if it ends up being correct. But you can see even on the GFS, that the below normal heights to our north and east keep the ridge at bay and likely would introduce yet another back door front to the northeast of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I return to the board to see absolutely nothing has changed, as despite changing his username YanksFan declared that there is no way to get heat with a NW Wind and then proceeded to back off and say that "At least its not a SE Wind". Welcome to spring folks. We've been on these boards for years, why would you think something has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Yeah...every time it looks as if the New England blocking pattern is about to break, it miraculously recovers and keeps the warm air at bay. The northeast has been the one area in the country this spring where heat has been largely absent. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Yeah...every time it looks as if the New England blocking pattern is about to break, it miraculously recovers and keeps the warm air at bay. The northeast has been the one area in the country this spring where heat has been largely absent. Sent from my iPhone But some will keep blindly banging the torch drum. Sure we may see a few days of above average temps but overall the pattern doesn't support any sustained torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Models have also busted on the big rains this spring outside of 4/30. Here we are yet another week and QPF dries up dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Models have also busted on the big rains this spring outside of 4/30. Here we are yet another week and QPF dries up dramatically. Last week did fairly well considering most places were under a tenth of an inch that afternoon and ended up near an inch and some places over. But generally the forecasts 3-4 day washouts have been drastically overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 But some will keep blindly banging the torch drum. Sure we may see a few days of above average temps but overall the pattern doesn't support any sustained torches. I haven't really seen anyone use the word torch. Mid and upper 80s may not be a heat wave but is still pretty warm for this time of year and would be the warmest most places have seen so far this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Last week did fairly well considering most places were under a tenth of an inch that afternoon and ended up near an inch and some places over. But generally the forecasts 3-4 day washouts have been drastically overdone. Even that was overdone-models had some spots with 2-3 inches....most had an inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I haven't really seen anyone use the word torch. Mid and upper 80s may not be a heat wave but is still pretty warm for this time of year and would be the warmest most places have seen so far this spring. The 00z ECMWF keeps any hopes of 80's at bay until Monday at the earliest. After that we're in fantasy land and subject to error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Even that was overdone-models had some spots with 2-3 inches....most had an inch or less. Yeah but most were not that wet the day of. That's why calling for a washout 3-5 days out especially as we head into summer is risky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 I made a post about this in the New England sub-forum. I believe that the models have been struggling with the convective nature of precipitation this time of year. Forecasting the exact location of convection is difficult enough in the near term let alone several days in advance. So while the globals are great for pointing out where the features are they haven't had a great handling on QPF. That's what scattered or isolated thunderstorms means. Some areas get dumped on and five miles away could see nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Models have also busted on the big rains this spring outside of 4/30. Here we are yet another week and QPF dries up dramatically. I suspect that we are going to have a very active severe season in the metro beginning this week through at least part of June as the "ring of fire" visits our area as the battle between the summer heat ridge and the blocking trough pattern really gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Does anyone think that any of the models have a good handle on the ongoing convection in PA? Doppler radar is estimating 2-4" have fallen in parts of NW PA, what model had that? Flash Flood Warnings flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Yeah...every time it looks as if the New England blocking pattern is about to break, it miraculously recovers and keeps the warm air at bay. The northeast has been the one area in the country this spring where heat has been largely absent. Sent from my iPhone We are still largely above normal this month so it's not like it's been that much cooler than other places. Most are anywhere from +1 to +2 so far and they will likely end the month around those departures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Monday to Sunday of next week looks above normal with temps of 80-90 degrees areawide. Not sure what people are talking about. All ensemble and op data supports it. And the signal remains as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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