IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Yeah and the gfs has been quite wet especially tomorrow night. And again Friday before we clear out for the weekend. Then warm to downright hot much of next week. Should be widespread 80s at least The 06z GFS actually takes a MCS right over the area late tomorrow. Also keeps things a bit unsettled with diurnal showers and storms over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The 06z GFS actually takes a MCS right over the area late tomorrow. Also keeps things a bit unsettled with diurnal showers and storms over the weekend. Yeah that looks kinda interesting and yes if the gfs is correct than places especially just inland will probably hit 90 at least once the last week of May particularly after Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Yeah that looks kinda interesting and yes if the gfs is correct than places especially just inland will probably hit 90 at least once the last week of May particularly after Memorial Day. 12z GFS is even stronger with this feature although it keeps the bulk of the activity to the southwest of NYC proper. 1.25-1.50" of rain verbatim for most of the state of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Today is amazing...the heat starts Sunday woohooi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Yes, but given the proximity of those nearest stations, how much of a temp difference do you think there would be in terms of normals? My temp departure would probably only have an error range of +/- 0.3 or so. I guess if you're talking an exact value, I agree. But IMO those normals are definitely helpful to see how warm or cold the month has been, and to provide a fairly close departure with respect to average. Radiational cooling can make a large difference. The normal annual temperature in Central Park is more than 3 degrees warmer than Somerville. Somerville's normal highs are about a degree warmer than the park's, but normal lows are an amazing 7 degrees lower. Even New Brunswick's normals area nearly 1.5 degrees above Somerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Today is amazing...the heat starts Sunday woohooi Great, always loved the smell of everyone's disgusting, dripping sweat. Thank god I'm not in the city and subways in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Today is amazing...the heat starts Sunday woohooi Do you actually know how to read a model? What part of a NW flow produces heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Do you actually know how to read a model? What part of a NW flow produces heat? Downsloping off the mountains warms us up. But honestly I'm not sure why you made that post in response to what Allsnow said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Downsloping off the mountains warms us up. But honestly I'm not sure why you made that post in response to what Allsnow said. Because of who it is saying that and because the heat doesn't begin on Sunday. He's talking big heat, that's not going to happen unless we flip to a more westerly or southwest flow. The 12z GFS maintains NW flow throughout its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Because of who it is saying that and because the heat doesn't begin on Sunday. He's talking big heat, that's not going to happen unless we flip to a more westerly or southwest flow. The 12z GFS maintains NW flow throughout its run. I thought he was speaking of 80 or 85 degree plus heat but I can't speak for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I thought he was speaking of 80 or 85 degree plus heat but I can't speak for him. Most of us in NJ have already experienced 80's a few times this year already. Getting up into the low to mid 80's doesn't really mean anything this time of year when that's only slightly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Most of us in NJ have already experienced 80's a few times this year already. Getting up into the low to mid 80's doesn't really mean anything this time of year when that's only slightly above normal. Normal high at Newark on Sunday is 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Allsnow is right, Most modeling has warm to very warm temps starting Monday and it looks to last a few days. Temps of 80-90 degrees finally coming. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Summer is fast approaching. ..too bad gloomy cold weather lovers...lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Do you actually know how to read a model? What part of a NW flow produces heat? Some of our hottest days are on a west or even WNW wind. Downslope absolutely helps with warming us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Summer is fast approaching. ..too bad gloomy cold weather lovers...lolz it is funny how we often flip a switch around Memorial Day-June 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Some of our hottest days are on a west or even WNW wind. Downslope absolutely helps with warming us up. Well it's better than an east or a southeast flow. I just don't see a pattern that will produce big heat. I see a pattern that will produce normal to slightly above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 it is funny how we often flip a switch around Memorial Day-June 1st Mother nature knows it's pool, beach, and BBQ season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 so much for the calls for a 2009 redux...we've been alot drier and warmer than that year already. What a horror show that was especially May/June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The 12z ECMWF keeps temps near average for the next 5 days. Highs in the 60's/70's with possibly not getting out of the upper 50's from NYC east on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The 12z ECMWF keeps temps near average for the next 5 days. Highs in the 60's/70's with possibly not getting out of the upper 50's from NYC east on Friday. Lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Today's the 1 year anniversary of that deadly Moore,Oklahoma tornado. It's situations like these that make us, or at least me, think twice about living in tornado alley. Such a significant meteorological phenomenon and a really sad situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Clouds/Showers approaching with the warm front. Will they make it into NNJ? HRRR says yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Today's the 1 year anniversary of that deadly Moore,Oklahoma tornado. It's situations like these that make us, or at least me, think twice about living in tornado alley. Such a significant meteorological phenomenon and a really sad situation. It really becomes part of the way of life when you live in a very tornado-prone area like that. People down there take outbreaks seriously, and most everyone has their plan of action (go to the lowest level, away from windows, etc) should they need it. Growing up near Birmingham, AL, we would have to "go to the basement" for a storm usually a few times each year. What's really fascinating to me is how so many tornadoes seem to track over the exact same areas year after year. The South side of OKC is obviously a good example, and similarly many of Alabama's worst tornadoes take tracks on the South side of Tuscaloosa into the Northern/Western suburbs of Birmingham. It seems too consistent a phenomenon to be simply coincidence. There has to be some feature, perhaps topographical, that is influencing the tracks of tornadoes there that we don't fully understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Allsnow is right, Most modeling has warm to very warm temps starting Monday and it looks to last a few days. Temps of 80-90 degrees finally coming. Bring it. I hope the AC at your job breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Allsnow is right, Most modeling has warm to very warm temps starting Monday and it looks to last a few days. Temps of 80-90 degrees finally coming. Bring it. I guess I do read the models..thanks bud! Normal high 75 we should be into the low 80's by Sunday...that's heat to me..the true heat will come in June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Will we see 100s this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Will we see 100s this summer? I'm sure at some point this summer we will sniff around it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Will we see 100s this summer? Our warmest day is always mid/late July. If we get 100s, then that is our best chance for it. Anyway, Memorial Day and the days immediately after it has served our first heat wave of the year for the past 3 years. It's looking like this year will be no different, and our first 90 degree day could happen sometime next week. Warm weather should be here to stay once Memorial Day arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Even though it has seemed rather cool this month the average temp for the month is over 2 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html A few factors to this: 1. Many of us desiring for a really hot summer after the Polar Vortex happened. 2. Coming off of our coolest April since 2007. It made us think we were going to have our coolest spring in a while. Our cold March didn't help, either. 3. The rain=cold misconception. June looks quite promising. We always have a cool down or two early in the month. 2012 gave us the chilly 1st week, 2013 we had Andrea and some other rainstorms. 2014 should stay warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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