NEG NAO Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Even though it has seemed rather cool this month the average temp for the month is over 2 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Even though it has seemed rather cool this month the average temp for the month is over 2 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html Very strong Western Atlantic Ridge pattern before the trough moved in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Even though it has seemed rather cool this month the average temp for the month is over 2 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html The clouds have probably been the factor influencing that feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Even though it has seemed rather cool this month the average temp for the month is over 2 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html Departure here is a little less at +1.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Departure here is a little less at +1.2 degrees. cooler ocean influence on temps there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I'm currently ~1.39 degrees above normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Even though it has seemed rather cool this month the average temp for the month is over 2 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 67 524 PM 90 1986 73 -6 63 1977 1936 MINIMUM 50 508 AM 43 2003 54 -4 58 1983 1955 AVERAGE 59 63 -4 61 Now lets do the REAL daily math 67 + 50 is 117 divided by 2 is 58.5 ( no the rounded up 59 ) The Normals of 73 + 54 is 127 divided by 2 is 63.5 ( not the rounded down 63 ) The real number shlould be NEG 5 - Not NEG 4 You can`t round up on the actuals, but round down the normals Can you ? To be fair I think the month end numbers reflect the actuals, at least I hope they do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 67 524 PM 90 1986 73 -6 63 1977 1936 MINIMUM 50 508 AM 43 2003 54 -4 58 1983 1955 AVERAGE 59 63 -4 61 Now lets do the REAL daily math 67 + 50 is 117 divided by 2 is 58.5 ( no the rounded up 59 ) The Normals of 73 + 54 is 127 divided by 2 is 63.5 ( not the rounded down 63 ) The real number shlould be NEG 5 - Not NEG 4 You can`t round up on the actuals, but round down the normals Can you ? To be fair I think the month end numbers reflect the actuals, at least I hope they do . Yes. The AWIPS climate program is a dinosaur. Hopefully once we're all upgraded to AWIPS II, they re-write it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Yes. The AWIPS climate program is a dinosaur. Hopefully once we're all upgraded to AWIPS II, they re-write it. Yeh I went a lil JB there , but I did remember you saying last yr the month end numbers do reflect the actuals . Just trying to mix it up a bit on a slow news day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Last night was chilly but it felt really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Wednesday-Thursday could be kind of interesting for some stronger storms. Doesn't look like anything severe as the best dynamics should remain off to the north and west but an organized cluster or MCS structure appears possible. Right now small hail and heavy downpours look to be the primary threat. The rain could be heavy at times especially if the GFS is correct in developing a weak area of low pressure along the front. For now SPC has placed the area in a general thunderstorm risk zone for day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Departure here is a little less at +1.2 degrees. I'm dead on normal here, probably b/c of those cloudier days in E CNJ with cooler highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I'm dead on normal here, probably b/c of those cloudier days in E CNJ with cooler highs. Don't you have a really short period of record, though? I would imagine most of New Jersey is above normal for May due to the warm start to the month. It's cooled off since, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I'm dead on normal here, probably b/c of those cloudier days in E CNJ with cooler highs. Don't you have a really short period of record, though? I would imagine most of New Jersey is above normal for May due to the warm start to the month. It's cooled off since, however. Normals can't be transferred between stations because of microclimates. So, whatever normals are being used are probably not relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 It's been solidly above normal (+1.5-2.5) and I think the month could at up at +2 overall. A lot will depend on what happens around the upcoming holiday and last week of the month as that portion looks above normal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I'm currently ~1.39 degrees above normal for the month. Thank heavens you approximated that value! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 19, 2014 Author Share Posted May 19, 2014 KNYC 1981-2010 normal monthly mean for May.....62.4... KNYC 1981-2010 average monthly mean for May...62.8... KNYC 1871-2010 average monthly mean for May...61.9...est... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 actually getting some thunder and impressive wind gusts with these showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 actually getting some thunder and impressive wind gusts with these showers Very steep low level lapse rates are enhancing the wind gusts. The mid level lapse rates are decent with some elevated instability evident on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Don't you have a really short period of record, though? I would imagine most of New Jersey is above normal for May due to the warm start to the month. It's cooled off since, however. Normals can't be transferred between stations because of microclimates. So, whatever normals are being used are probably not relevant. The four nearest reliable stations of temperature record: Freehold, Hightstown, New Brunswick, and Trenton, have a normal mean temp of 60.9, 60.7, 60.7, and 61.1 respectively. My mean temp here as of yesterday was 60.8, very close to normal. This is the only way a departure from normal can be established for a home station, since obviously my records are not long enough to create "normal" values. So normal temps from nearby locations must be utilized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The four nearest reliable stations of temperature record: Freehold, Hightstown, New Brunswick, and Trenton, have a normal mean temp of 60.9, 60.7, 60.7, and 61.1 respectively. My mean temp here as of yesterday was 60.8, very close to normal. This is the only way a departure from normal can be established for a home station, since obviously my records are not long enough to create "normal" values. So normal temps from nearby locations must be utilized. That's why you simply don't use any sort of normals for a station which doesn't have them. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 GFS is back with the near 90 temps around the 29th - still think most of the metro will avoid 90 by the end of May but wouldn't surprise if someone inland away from the ocean makes it to 90 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 That's why you simply don't use any sort of normals for a station which doesn't have them. End of story. Yes, but given the proximity of those nearest stations, how much of a temp difference do you think there would be in terms of normals? My temp departure would probably only have an error range of +/- 0.3 or so. I guess if you're talking an exact value, I agree. But IMO those normals are definitely helpful to see how warm or cold the month has been, and to provide a fairly close departure with respect to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The warmest departures this month are out over Suffolk County with ISP at +3.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Boy, I might not even reach 80 here in central Nassau county until mid July! That's if you trust accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Boy, I might not even reach 80 here in central Nassau county until mid July! That's if you trust accuweather. Luckily nobody does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 70 here with bright sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The next 3 days should at least feature some scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms. If you want to believe the 12z NAM Wednesday night looks pretty wet. Thursday has less storm coverage overall but it looks to be focused over our general area. Friday looks stormy as the ULL spins off the mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The next 3 days should at least feature some scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms. If you want to believe the 12z NAM Wednesday night looks pretty wet. Thursday has less storm coverage overall but it looks to be focused over our general area. Friday looks stormy as the ULL spins off the mid-atlantic coast. Yeah and the gfs has been quite wet especially tomorrow night. And again Friday before we clear out for the weekend. Then warm to downright hot much of next week. Should be widespread 80s at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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